Poll

No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
10 votes (76.92%)
6 votes (46.15%)
No votes (0%)
5 votes (38.46%)
2 votes (15.38%)
3 votes (23.07%)
1 vote (7.69%)
1 vote (7.69%)

13 members have voted

Wizard
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Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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September 11th, 2019 at 3:41:14 PM permalink
Quote: DogHand

Wiz,

On your Lucky 6 page, rule 2 says:

"If the Banker bet wins with a 3-card total of 6, then the Lucky 6 pays 24 for 1."

However, your payable says 23:1.

I suspect at least one of these values is incorrect ;-)

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand



I explained on the page that the wording on the table is on a "for one" basis, but I converted it to "to one," just to be consistent with how I analyze table most bets.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
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September 11th, 2019 at 5:06:53 PM permalink
I agree with your figures but not the addition, it comes out as a player advantage. When I change the payout to 20 to 1 ( c.f. https://www.ggrasia.com/macau-regulator-approves-lucky-6-side-bet-for-baccarat/ ) there's a very small House Edge (0.18%), so I'm guessing that's what they should be offering.
Wizard
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Wizard
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September 11th, 2019 at 8:05:41 PM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

I agree with your figures but not the addition, it comes out as a player advantage.



Who were you responding to? I'm not sure I follow.

Quote:

When I change the payout to 20 to 1 ( c.f. https://www.ggrasia.com/macau-regulator-approves-lucky-6-side-bet-for-baccarat/ ) there's a very small House Edge (0.18%), so I'm guessing that's what they should be offering.



I get a house edge of 20.12% under the Macau rules.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
gordonm888
gordonm888
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September 11th, 2019 at 9:54:05 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Who were you responding to? I'm not sure I follow.



charliepatrick's comment
Your return table has

EVENT__________________ RETURN
3-Card Winning Banker 0.856675
2-Card Winning Banker 0.199404
All other________________ -0.946136
Total____________________ -0.089462

But 0.856675 + 0.199404 - 0.946136 = +0.114718 which is a player advantage of 11.47% !!!! Yet, your total implies a H.E. of 8.946%
So many better men, a few of them friends, were dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things lived on, and so did I.
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
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September 12th, 2019 at 1:34:59 AM permalink
Sorry but I think we've both got the 2-card and 3-card the wrong way round. When in doubt run a sim!
Overall Result: Exp: -0.11610937322971716 Hands: 80592701 2card6: 3006121 3card6: 1339815 lose6: 76246765
The sim shows Pr(3card6) = 0.016625 and Pr(3card6) = 0.037300
The expected loss should be 11.698% so the sim is fairly close and typical for bad value sidebets (I wonder why they didn't chose to pay 25 to 1).
jason123
jason123
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September 12th, 2019 at 5:57:51 AM permalink
Oh, nice save, I'll keep it in mind for the future.
“Losing feels worse than winning feels good.” - Vin Scully
Wizard
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Wizard
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September 12th, 2019 at 6:39:49 AM permalink
Thank you all for your corrections. It looks like I had two mistakes, my total return didn't count everything and I flopped the 2-card and 3-card combinations. The errors roughly offset, so it looked like a reasonable house edge.

Everything is hopefully corrected now.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
UCivan
UCivan
Joined: Sep 3, 2011
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September 12th, 2019 at 8:37:37 AM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

I agree with your figures but not the addition, it comes out as a player advantage. When I change the payout to 20 to 1 ( c.f. https://www.ggrasia.com/macau-regulator-approves-lucky-6-side-bet-for-baccarat/ ) there's a very small House Edge (0.18%), so I'm guessing that's what they should be offering.



GGRASIA says, "‘Lucky Six’ pays out on any winning ‘banker’ hand with a face value of six. It pays 20 to 1 if the winning ‘banker’ hand with a face value of six is composed of three cards, and 12 to 1 for a two-card winning hand, according to the rules published by the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau, also known by its Portuguese acronym DICJ."

I did not see the rules published on http://www.dicj.gov.mo/web/en/rules/index.html
MDawg
MDawg
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October 19th, 2019 at 1:50:02 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Beach: so the bet is that the Tiger baccarat game at Cosmopolitan Vegas and the Lucky 6 baccarat at Venetian Vegas have different odds for the payment of the Bank 6?

The payout is 20:1 for three card Bank 6 at Cosmo, and 12:1 for two card Bank 6 at Cosmo on their "commissionless" game. I bet that the payout is exactly the same for the Lucky 6 "commissionless" Baccarat game at Venetian. This is based on, how could it not be and my knowledge of gambling. You wish to bet against me?

I will go further and bet that The Wizard is wrong if he claims that the payout for the Lucky 6 at Venetian is 23:1 for a three card Bank 6.


I am sure Wiz is wrong here. While in Vegas for five weeks I actually never stepped foot inside the Venetian because was too busy playing at other casinos this particular trip, but if you check here
https://www.venetian.com/content/dam/venetian/casino/table-games/VP-Gaming-Guide.pdf
it states "There is also an additional proposition wager
called Lucky 6. Should you choose to wager on the
Lucky 6, you win 13 for 1 on any winning two card
Banker hand totaling 6 and 21 for 1 on any three
card Banker hand totaling 6."
which is exactly the same as the Dragon bet at Cosmopolitan: The payout is 20:1 for three card Bank 6 at Cosmo, and 12:1 for two card Bank 6 at Cosmo on their "commissionless" game. As I stated, it would be unimaginable that two properties on the strip offer an identical game with such disparate payouts.

So, Wiz was wrong when he claimed that the Lucky 6 pays 24 for 1 at Venetian for 3 card Bank six, in fact, it pays 21 for 1.

Quote: beachbumbabs

How much would you like to bet? I will take the "no" , they are not the same bet.


BeachBumBabs loses the bet, but I didn't want to take it because it would have been like taking money from home.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.

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