Lucky 6
Poll
 | 1 vote (7.14%) | ||
| No votes (0%) | |||
| | 10 votes (71.42%) | ||
| | 6 votes (42.85%) | ||
| No votes (0%) | |||
| | 5 votes (35.71%) | ||
| | 2 votes (14.28%) | ||
| | 3 votes (21.42%) | ||
| | 1 vote (7.14%) | ||
| | 1 vote (7.14%) |
14 members have voted
Please click the link for all the rules and analysis. As always, I welcome all comments.
The question for the poll is would you bet the Lucky 6 if playing baccarat anyway?
On your Lucky 6 page, rule 2 says:
"If the Banker bet wins with a 3-card total of 6, then the Lucky 6 pays 24 for 1."
However, your payable says 23:1.
I suspect at least one of these values is incorrect ;-)
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
23:1 is the same as paying 24 for 1.
However, at the Cosmopolitan, the Tiger Bank 6 win for three cards pays 20:1, with two cards, 12:1 , so either this casino Wiz has reviewed pays better than the Cosmopolitan, or he has made a mistake as to the payoffs. I haven't played the commission free tables at the Venetian yet, so I cannot confirm, but it seems odd that Venetian would be paying better odds on Baccarat than Cosmopolitan, but I suppose it is possible.
I would be willing to bet that Venetian and Cosmo have the same payoffs on their commission free tables, that is 12:1 for two card Bank 6, 20:1 for three card Bank 6. I can't see two casinos on the strip paying differently for the same game, whether called Lucky 6 or Tiger.
Quote: MDawgDog it's just the way they do it, for example Baccarat tie bet is marked on the felt as paying "9 for 1" which means "8:1" - same thing.
23:1 is the same as paying 24 for 1.
However, at the Cosmopolitan, the Tiger Bank 6 win for three cards pays 20:1, with two cards, 12:1 , so either this casino Wiz has reviewed pays better than the Cosmopolitan, or he has made a mistake as to the payoffs. I haven't played the commission free tables at the Venetian yet, so I cannot confirm, but it seems odd that Venetian would be paying better odds on Baccarat than Cosmopolitan, but I suppose it is possible.
I would be willing to bet that Venetian and Cosmo have the same payoffs on their commission free tables, that is 12:1 for two card Bank 6, 20:1 for three card Bank 6. I can't see two casinos on the strip paying differently for the same game, whether called Lucky 6 or Tiger.
How much would you like to bet? I will take the "no" , they are not the same bet.
Quote: beachbumbabsQuote: MDawgDog it's just the way they do it, for example Baccarat tie bet is marked on the felt as paying "9 for 1" which means "8:1" - same thing.
23:1 is the same as paying 24 for 1.
However, at the Cosmopolitan, the Tiger Bank 6 win for three cards pays 20:1, with two cards, 12:1 , so either this casino Wiz has reviewed pays better than the Cosmopolitan, or he has made a mistake as to the payoffs. I haven't played the commission free tables at the Venetian yet, so I cannot confirm, but it seems odd that Venetian would be paying better odds on Baccarat than Cosmopolitan, but I suppose it is possible.
I would be willing to bet that Venetian and Cosmo have the same payoffs on their commission free tables, that is 12:1 for two card Bank 6, 20:1 for three card Bank 6. I can't see two casinos on the strip paying differently for the same game, whether called Lucky 6 or Tiger.
How much would you like to bet? I will take the "no" , they are not the same bet.
It’s got to be at least $5000. Anything less isn’t worth his time.
The payout is 20:1 for three card Bank 6 at Cosmo, and 12:1 for two card Bank 6 at Cosmo on their "commissionless" game. I bet that the payout is exactly the same for the Lucky 6 "commissionless" Baccarat game at Venetian. This is based on, how could it not be and my knowledge of gambling. You wish to bet against me?
I will go further and bet that The Wizard is wrong if he claims that the payout for the Lucky 6 at Venetian is 23:1 for a three card Bank 6.
Quote: DogHandWiz,
On your Lucky 6 page, rule 2 says:
"If the Banker bet wins with a 3-card total of 6, then the Lucky 6 pays 24 for 1."
However, your payable says 23:1.
I suspect at least one of these values is incorrect ;-)
Hope this helps!
Dog Hand
I explained on the page that the wording on the table is on a "for one" basis, but I converted it to "to one," just to be consistent with how I analyze table most bets.
Quote: charliepatrickI agree with your figures but not the addition, it comes out as a player advantage.
Who were you responding to? I'm not sure I follow.
Quote:When I change the payout to 20 to 1 ( c.f. https://www.ggrasia.com/macau-regulator-approves-lucky-6-side-bet-for-baccarat/ ) there's a very small House Edge (0.18%), so I'm guessing that's what they should be offering.
I get a house edge of 20.12% under the Macau rules.
Quote: WizardWho were you responding to? I'm not sure I follow.
charliepatrick's comment
Your return table has
EVENT__________________ RETURN
3-Card Winning Banker 0.856675
2-Card Winning Banker 0.199404
All other________________ -0.946136
Total____________________ -0.089462
But 0.856675 + 0.199404 - 0.946136 = +0.114718 which is a player advantage of 11.47% !!!! Yet, your total implies a H.E. of 8.946%
Overall Result: Exp: -0.11610937322971716 Hands: 80592701 2card6: 3006121 3card6: 1339815 lose6: 76246765
The sim shows Pr(3card6) = 0.016625 and Pr(3card6) = 0.037300
The expected loss should be 11.698% so the sim is fairly close and typical for bad value sidebets (I wonder why they didn't chose to pay 25 to 1).
Everything is hopefully corrected now.
Quote: charliepatrickI agree with your figures but not the addition, it comes out as a player advantage. When I change the payout to 20 to 1 ( c.f. https://www.ggrasia.com/macau-regulator-approves-lucky-6-side-bet-for-baccarat/ ) there's a very small House Edge (0.18%), so I'm guessing that's what they should be offering.
GGRASIA says, "‘Lucky Six’ pays out on any winning ‘banker’ hand with a face value of six. It pays 20 to 1 if the winning ‘banker’ hand with a face value of six is composed of three cards, and 12 to 1 for a two-card winning hand, according to the rules published by the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau, also known by its Portuguese acronym DICJ."
I did not see the rules published on http://www.dicj.gov.mo/web/en/rules/index.html
Quote: MDawgBeach: so the bet is that the Tiger baccarat game at Cosmopolitan Vegas and the Lucky 6 baccarat at Venetian Vegas have different odds for the payment of the Bank 6?
The payout is 20:1 for three card Bank 6 at Cosmo, and 12:1 for two card Bank 6 at Cosmo on their "commissionless" game. I bet that the payout is exactly the same for the Lucky 6 "commissionless" Baccarat game at Venetian. This is based on, how could it not be and my knowledge of gambling. You wish to bet against me?
I will go further and bet that The Wizard is wrong if he claims that the payout for the Lucky 6 at Venetian is 23:1 for a three card Bank 6.
I am sure Wiz is wrong here. While in Vegas for five weeks I actually never stepped foot inside the Venetian because was too busy playing at other casinos this particular trip, but if you check here
https://www.venetian.com/content/dam/venetian/casino/table-games/VP-Gaming-Guide.pdf
it states "There is also an additional proposition wager
called Lucky 6. Should you choose to wager on the
Lucky 6, you win 13 for 1 on any winning two card
Banker hand totaling 6 and 21 for 1 on any three
card Banker hand totaling 6."
which is exactly the same as the Dragon bet at Cosmopolitan: The payout is 20:1 for three card Bank 6 at Cosmo, and 12:1 for two card Bank 6 at Cosmo on their "commissionless" game. As I stated, it would be unimaginable that two properties on the strip offer an identical game with such disparate payouts.
So, Wiz was wrong when he claimed that the Lucky 6 pays 24 for 1 at Venetian for 3 card Bank six, in fact, it pays 21 for 1.
Quote: beachbumbabsHow much would you like to bet? I will take the "no" , they are not the same bet.
BeachBumBabs loses the bet, but I didn't want to take it because it would have been like taking money from home.
