Poll

No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
10 votes (76.92%)
6 votes (46.15%)
No votes (0%)
5 votes (38.46%)
2 votes (15.38%)
3 votes (23.07%)
1 vote (7.69%)
1 vote (7.69%)

13 members have voted

Wizard
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Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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September 11th, 2019 at 3:41:14 PM permalink
Quote: DogHand

Wiz,

On your Lucky 6 page, rule 2 says:

"If the Banker bet wins with a 3-card total of 6, then the Lucky 6 pays 24 for 1."

However, your payable says 23:1.

I suspect at least one of these values is incorrect ;-)

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand



I explained on the page that the wording on the table is on a "for one" basis, but I converted it to "to one," just to be consistent with how I analyze table most bets.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
Joined: Jun 17, 2011
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September 11th, 2019 at 5:06:53 PM permalink
I agree with your figures but not the addition, it comes out as a player advantage. When I change the payout to 20 to 1 ( c.f. https://www.ggrasia.com/macau-regulator-approves-lucky-6-side-bet-for-baccarat/ ) there's a very small House Edge (0.18%), so I'm guessing that's what they should be offering.
Wizard
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Wizard
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September 11th, 2019 at 8:05:41 PM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

I agree with your figures but not the addition, it comes out as a player advantage.



Who were you responding to? I'm not sure I follow.

Quote:

When I change the payout to 20 to 1 ( c.f. https://www.ggrasia.com/macau-regulator-approves-lucky-6-side-bet-for-baccarat/ ) there's a very small House Edge (0.18%), so I'm guessing that's what they should be offering.



I get a house edge of 20.12% under the Macau rules.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
gordonm888
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
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September 11th, 2019 at 9:54:05 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Who were you responding to? I'm not sure I follow.



charliepatrick's comment
Your return table has

EVENT__________________ RETURN
3-Card Winning Banker 0.856675
2-Card Winning Banker 0.199404
All other________________ -0.946136
Total____________________ -0.089462

But 0.856675 + 0.199404 - 0.946136 = +0.114718 which is a player advantage of 11.47% !!!! Yet, your total implies a H.E. of 8.946%
Sometimes, people are just a bottomless mystery. And, after all, this is just a sh*tty little forum in the sun-less backwaters of the online world.
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
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September 12th, 2019 at 1:34:59 AM permalink
Sorry but I think we've both got the 2-card and 3-card the wrong way round. When in doubt run a sim!
Overall Result: Exp: -0.11610937322971716 Hands: 80592701 2card6: 3006121 3card6: 1339815 lose6: 76246765
The sim shows Pr(3card6) = 0.016625 and Pr(3card6) = 0.037300
The expected loss should be 11.698% so the sim is fairly close and typical for bad value sidebets (I wonder why they didn't chose to pay 25 to 1).
jason123
jason123
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September 12th, 2019 at 5:57:51 AM permalink
Oh, nice save, I'll keep it in mind for the future.
“Losing feels worse than winning feels good.” - Vin Scully
Wizard
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Wizard
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September 12th, 2019 at 6:39:49 AM permalink
Thank you all for your corrections. It looks like I had two mistakes, my total return didn't count everything and I flopped the 2-card and 3-card combinations. The errors roughly offset, so it looked like a reasonable house edge.

Everything is hopefully corrected now.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
UCivan
UCivan
Joined: Sep 3, 2011
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September 12th, 2019 at 8:37:37 AM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

I agree with your figures but not the addition, it comes out as a player advantage. When I change the payout to 20 to 1 ( c.f. https://www.ggrasia.com/macau-regulator-approves-lucky-6-side-bet-for-baccarat/ ) there's a very small House Edge (0.18%), so I'm guessing that's what they should be offering.



GGRASIA says, "‘Lucky Six’ pays out on any winning ‘banker’ hand with a face value of six. It pays 20 to 1 if the winning ‘banker’ hand with a face value of six is composed of three cards, and 12 to 1 for a two-card winning hand, according to the rules published by the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau, also known by its Portuguese acronym DICJ."

I did not see the rules published on http://www.dicj.gov.mo/web/en/rules/index.html

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