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Wizard
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March 20th, 2019 at 2:39:41 PM permalink
3 Card Wins are a pair of side bets in baccarat at a table in the Gold Coast next to the Hippie Pit. They win if the chosen side wins with three cards. Player wins pay 4 to 1 and the Banker pays 5 to 1. For all the rules and analysis, please click the link I just left.

As usual, I welcome all questions, comments, and corrections.

The question for the poll is would you bet the 3 Card Wins if playing baccarat anyway? Multiple votes allowed.

Question for discussion: Are these countable? (shut up Wiz!)
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
teliot
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March 20th, 2019 at 3:20:39 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Are these countable?

Obviously countable. The "Dragon 7" count is almost certainly usable here, as it is correlated to 3-card final hands. (4,5,6,7 = -1, 8,9 = +2). However, there may be an even stronger count.
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Gialmere
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March 20th, 2019 at 4:35:04 PM permalink
In the first sentence of the Analysis section at WoO, trade out "Banker" for "Player".
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
ssho88
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March 21st, 2019 at 9:03:36 AM permalink
Quote: teliot

Obviously countable. The "Dragon 7" count is almost certainly usable here, as it is correlated to 3-card final hands. (4,5,6,7 = -1, 8,9 = +2). However, there may be an even stronger count.




I beg to differ, obviously it is not so countable, you can rest assured.

Fortunately, it is beatable with a very unique method . . .( shhh...)
Wizard
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March 21st, 2019 at 7:56:49 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

Obviously countable.



I am just told the maximum bet is $25. Between that and one placement, I'm not going to fuss with it.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
ssho88
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March 21st, 2019 at 9:39:23 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

Obviously countable. The "Dragon 7" count is almost certainly usable here, as it is correlated to 3-card final hands. (4,5,6,7 = -1, 8,9 = +2). However, there may be an even stronger count.




100 million shoe simulation results :-

a) 96.6% penetration, BANKER 3 CARD WINS, EV/shoe = 0.014unit
b) 87.5% penetration, BANKER 3 CARD WINS, EV/shoe = 0.001unit
c) 96.6% penetration, PLAYER 3 CARD WINS, EV/shoe = 0.177unit
d) 87.5% penetration, PLAYER 3 CARD WINS, EV/shoe = 0.068unit

So it is not so countable, as per my prediction. Rest assured.
UCivan
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May 30th, 2019 at 9:41:26 AM permalink
Quote: teliot

Obviously countable. The "Dragon 7" count is almost certainly usable here, as it is correlated to 3-card final hands. (4,5,6,7 = -1, 8,9 = +2). However, there may be an even stronger count.


(1) All popular side bets have been identified as countable by the Professor.
(2) Most gamblers only play the perceived "countable" games
(3) First figure out how much you can make per hour by counting
(4) Then get your bankroll ready and go bet.
UCivan
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May 30th, 2019 at 9:47:28 AM permalink
Quote: ssho88

100 million shoe simulation results :-

a) 96.6% penetration, BANKER 3 CARD WINS, EV/shoe = 0.014unit
b) 87.5% penetration, BANKER 3 CARD WINS, EV/shoe = 0.001unit
c) 96.6% penetration, PLAYER 3 CARD WINS, EV/shoe = 0.177unit
d) 87.5% penetration, PLAYER 3 CARD WINS, EV/shoe = 0.068unit

So it is not so countable, as per my prediction. Rest assured.



The paytable has changed:

Banker 3 Card Win, 5,4,3,2,1 15 to 1
Banker 3 Card Win, 9,8,7,6, Push

Player 3 Card Win, 5,4,3,2,1 10 to 1
Player 3 Card Win, 9,8,7,6, Push

Countable?
DogHand
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May 31st, 2019 at 11:05:08 AM permalink
Quote: UCivan

The paytable has changed:

Banker 3 Card Win, 5,4,3,2,1 15 to 1
Banker 3 Card Win, 9,8,7,6, Push

Player 3 Card Win, 5,4,3,2,1 10 to 1
Player 3 Card Win, 9,8,7,6, Push

Countable?



UCivan,


I get the following EV results for the new paytable:


Baccarat 3-Card Win: New Paytable
ResultPaysProbReturn
Banker Bet
Banker 3-Card Win with Total of 1-5150.05283972120260860.792595818
Banker 3-Card Win with Total of 6-900.09998624256916150
Lose-10.8471740362282300-0.847174036
-0.054578218
Player Bet
Player 3-Card Win with Total of 1-5100.06820548733078590.682054873
Player 3-Card Win with Total of 6-900.12042242410384100
Lose-10.8113720885653730-0.811372089
-0.129317215


Hope this helps!

Dog Hand
UCivan
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May 31st, 2019 at 8:15:46 PM permalink
Quote: DogHand

UCivan,


I get the following EV results for the new paytable:


Baccarat 3-Card Win: New Paytable
ResultPaysProbReturn
Banker Bet
Banker 3-Card Win with Total of 1-5150.05283972120260860.792595818
Banker 3-Card Win with Total of 6-900.09998624256916150
Lose-10.8471740362282300-0.847174036
-0.054578218
Player Bet
Player 3-Card Win with Total of 1-5100.06820548733078590.682054873
Player 3-Card Win with Total of 6-900.12042242410384100
Lose-10.8113720885653730-0.811372089
-0.129317215


Hope this helps!

Dog Hand



Thank U DogHand.

I was interested in countability? Easy to count?
ssho88
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June 1st, 2019 at 8:21:40 AM permalink
Quote: UCivan

The paytable has changed:

Banker 3 Card Win, 5,4,3,2,1 15 to 1
Banker 3 Card Win, 9,8,7,6, Push

Player 3 Card Win, 5,4,3,2,1 10 to 1
Player 3 Card Win, 9,8,7,6, Push

Countable?



I will redo the simulations. What is the penetration ?
DogHand
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June 1st, 2019 at 3:28:09 PM permalink
Quote: UCivan

Thank U DogHand.

I was interested in countability? Easy to count?



UCivan,

Well, to answer that, I first had to find the Effect of Removal of each rank on each of the sidebets. I did this by removing a single card of the given rank from the 8-deck shoe and then re-calculating the EV of each sidebet. From these EoR's, I selected tags to be used to count each sidebet. Here are those results:

Bac. 3-Card Win: EoR
Banker BetEVEoRTagPlayer BetEVEoRTag
Full-5.458%Full-12.932%
Remove 1Remove 1
0-5.649%-0.191%-10-13.212%-0.280%-1
1-5.664%-0.206%-11-13.136%-0.204%-1
2-5.712%-0.254%-12-13.059%-0.127%0
3-5.630%-0.172%-13-12.978%-0.046%0
4-5.391%0.066%04-12.909%0.023%0
5-5.373%0.085%05-12.790%0.142%0
6-5.155%0.303%26-12.462%0.470%2
7-5.222%0.236%17-12.564%0.368%1
8-5.043%0.414%28-12.634%0.298%1
9-5.166%0.292%29-12.735%0.196%1


Using these tags for each system, I then ran a Baccarat simulation of 10-million 8-decks shoes. For each shoe, the number of cards cut off was 14+1 (the burn card)+(number of cards corresponding to the burn card, with A = 1, 2-10 = the pip value, and J,Q,K = 10), so the number cut off varied between 16 and 25. However, one more round was dealt AFTER the cut card appeared, in keeping with Baccarat tradition.


Here are the results for each sidebet as a function of the floored TC:

BankerPlayer
TCTCDistSBPushSBWinSBEarnTCDistSBPushSBWinSBEarn
157,714,005 730,819 598,265 2,589,054 3,237,345 379,343 390,690 1,439,588
141,842,853 178,388 125,902 349,967 999,335 118,294 101,987 240,816
131,777,361 172,035 119,035 299,234 932,350 109,887 93,347 204,354
123,301,499 321,622 215,993 476,011 2,002,354 236,948 192,593 353,117
113,322,676 323,068 214,221 427,928 1,984,491 235,191 185,191 287,801
104,580,157 447,158 290,674 517,785 2,902,061 343,935 262,442 328,736
95,644,117 552,764 349,114 494,471 3,701,078 439,241 326,123 325,516
87,764,370 763,410 472,449 558,224 5,343,113 634,001 454,900 294,788
79,609,805 945,775 574,549 528,754 6,802,509 809,225 565,377 225,863
613,562,514 1,336,643 796,957 525,441 10,154,075 1,207,806 819,353 66,614
517,922,702 1,769,443 1,034,339 396,165 14,013,054 1,671,613 1,099,149 (250,802)
426,223,936 2,598,921 1,485,978 150,633 21,991,179 2,621,434 1,680,152 (888,073)
335,953,829 3,568,299 2,003,702 (326,298)32,022,653 3,830,548 2,382,868 (1,980,557)
254,913,429 5,462,100 3,011,912 (1,260,737)53,512,894 6,407,886 3,876,721 (4,461,077)
181,875,272 8,163,128 4,420,180 (2,989,264)87,916,629 10,548,621 6,208,874 (9,070,394)
0148,708,524 14,855,087 7,882,451 (7,734,221)183,412,736 22,059,772 12,582,731 (22,942,923)
-1116,576,166 11,661,275 6,090,490 (7,467,051)137,623,593 16,583,601 9,230,607 (19,503,315)
-282,777,653 8,305,564 4,247,496 (6,512,153)88,672,118 10,706,522 5,768,761 (14,509,225)
-352,834,845 5,311,580 2,659,058 (4,978,337)51,269,217 6,200,838 3,241,030 (9,417,049)
-436,364,504 3,664,107 1,796,887 (3,950,205)32,647,127 3,960,485 2,003,519 (6,647,933)
-599,542,092 10,126,548 4,572,229 (16,259,880)71,672,398 8,785,389 3,978,788 (19,120,341)


On this table, the TC=15 row is actually 15 and up, while the TC=-5 row is actually -5 and below.

From these results, we see the Banker SB becomes +EV at a Banker-TC of +4, while the Player SB becomes +EV at a Player-TC of +6. If we bet each SB only when it is +EV, we get these results:

SBBankerPlayer
Pays1510
Trigger46
Play%12.70%4.68%
Hit%6.08%8.91%
EV%7.08%9.90%


So, the Banker SB is +EV on 12.7% of the rounds, with an average edge of just over 7%. When we play it, it wins just over 6% of the time.

The Player SB is +EV on just under 4.7% of the rounds, but with an average EV of nearly 10%. When we play it, it wins just under 9% of the time.

Just as a check, here are the overall statistics for the 10-million shoes:

Baccarat
Shoes 10,000,000
Decks 8
Cut Off 14
Rounds 812,812,309
Banker 372,732,698 45.86%
Player 362,723,121 44.63%
Tie All 77,356,490 9.52%


So, to answer your query: yes, it is easily countable, but with a $25 max bet, you won't get rich doing so ;-)

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand
UCivan
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June 1st, 2019 at 10:22:58 PM permalink
Yes, indeed. Thanks.
ssho88
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June 1st, 2019 at 11:53:07 PM permalink
Quote: UCivan

Yes, indeed. Thanks.



My simulation results for BANKER 3 CARD WIN(1 pay 15), RC method, penetration = 87.5%, the ev/shoe = 0.43 units, bet when RC >= xx .

If penetration = 96.6%, the ev/shoe = 0.75 units.

Unbalanced Running Count system tag values from Ace to T ( -1, -1, -1, 0, 0, +2, +2, +2, +2, -1)

How to post an image files ?
Last edited by: ssho88 on Jun 2, 2019
ssho88
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June 2nd, 2019 at 12:03:43 AM permalink
Edited, your EORs match with mine . . .

My EORs(BANKER 3 CARD WIN 1 pay 15) . . . .

CardEOR
Ace-0.205995
2-0.253708
3-0.172030
40.066330
50.085137
60.302564
70.235779
80.414440
90.291926
T-0.191111


James


Quote: DogHand

UCivan,

Well, to answer that, I first had to find the Effect of Removal of each rank on each of the sidebets. I did this by removing a single card of the given rank from the 8-deck shoe and then re-calculating the EV of each sidebet. From these EoR's, I selected tags to be used to count each sidebet. Here are those results:

Bac. 3-Card Win: EoR
Banker BetEVEoRTagPlayer BetEVEoRTag
Full-5.458%Full-12.932%
Remove 1Remove 1
0-5.649%-0.191%-10-13.212%-0.280%-1
1-5.664%-0.206%-11-13.136%-0.204%-1
2-5.712%-0.254%-12-13.059%-0.127%0
3-5.630%-0.172%-13-12.978%-0.046%0
4-5.391%0.066%04-12.909%0.023%0
5-5.373%0.085%05-12.790%0.142%0
6-5.155%0.303%26-12.462%0.470%2
7-5.222%0.236%17-12.564%0.368%1
8-5.043%0.414%28-12.634%0.298%1
9-5.166%0.292%29-12.735%0.196%1


Using these tags for each system, I then ran a Baccarat simulation of 10-million 8-decks shoes. For each shoe, the number of cards cut off was 14+1 (the burn card)+(number of cards corresponding to the burn card, with A = 1, 2-10 = the pip value, and J,Q,K = 10), so the number cut off varied between 16 and 25. However, one more round was dealt AFTER the cut card appeared, in keeping with Baccarat tradition.


Here are the results for each sidebet as a function of the floored TC:

BankerPlayer
TCTCDistSBPushSBWinSBEarnTCDistSBPushSBWinSBEarn
157,714,005 730,819 598,265 2,589,054 3,237,345 379,343 390,690 1,439,588
141,842,853 178,388 125,902 349,967 999,335 118,294 101,987 240,816
131,777,361 172,035 119,035 299,234 932,350 109,887 93,347 204,354
123,301,499 321,622 215,993 476,011 2,002,354 236,948 192,593 353,117
113,322,676 323,068 214,221 427,928 1,984,491 235,191 185,191 287,801
104,580,157 447,158 290,674 517,785 2,902,061 343,935 262,442 328,736
95,644,117 552,764 349,114 494,471 3,701,078 439,241 326,123 325,516
87,764,370 763,410 472,449 558,224 5,343,113 634,001 454,900 294,788
79,609,805 945,775 574,549 528,754 6,802,509 809,225 565,377 225,863
613,562,514 1,336,643 796,957 525,441 10,154,075 1,207,806 819,353 66,614
517,922,702 1,769,443 1,034,339 396,165 14,013,054 1,671,613 1,099,149 (250,802)
426,223,936 2,598,921 1,485,978 150,633 21,991,179 2,621,434 1,680,152 (888,073)
335,953,829 3,568,299 2,003,702 (326,298)32,022,653 3,830,548 2,382,868 (1,980,557)
254,913,429 5,462,100 3,011,912 (1,260,737)53,512,894 6,407,886 3,876,721 (4,461,077)
181,875,272 8,163,128 4,420,180 (2,989,264)87,916,629 10,548,621 6,208,874 (9,070,394)
0148,708,524 14,855,087 7,882,451 (7,734,221)183,412,736 22,059,772 12,582,731 (22,942,923)
-1116,576,166 11,661,275 6,090,490 (7,467,051)137,623,593 16,583,601 9,230,607 (19,503,315)
-282,777,653 8,305,564 4,247,496 (6,512,153)88,672,118 10,706,522 5,768,761 (14,509,225)
-352,834,845 5,311,580 2,659,058 (4,978,337)51,269,217 6,200,838 3,241,030 (9,417,049)
-436,364,504 3,664,107 1,796,887 (3,950,205)32,647,127 3,960,485 2,003,519 (6,647,933)
-599,542,092 10,126,548 4,572,229 (16,259,880)71,672,398 8,785,389 3,978,788 (19,120,341)


On this table, the TC=15 row is actually 15 and up, while the TC=-5 row is actually -5 and below.

From these results, we see the Banker SB becomes +EV at a Banker-TC of +4, while the Player SB becomes +EV at a Player-TC of +6. If we bet each SB only when it is +EV, we get these results:

SBBankerPlayer
Pays1510
Trigger46
Play%12.70%4.68%
Hit%6.08%8.91%
EV%7.08%9.90%


So, the Banker SB is +EV on 12.7% of the rounds, with an average edge of just over 7%. When we play it, it wins just over 6% of the time.

The Player SB is +EV on just under 4.7% of the rounds, but with an average EV of nearly 10%. When we play it, it wins just under 9% of the time.

Just as a check, here are the overall statistics for the 10-million shoes:

Baccarat
Shoes 10,000,000
Decks 8
Cut Off 14
Rounds 812,812,309
Banker 372,732,698 45.86%
Player 362,723,121 44.63%
Tie All 77,356,490 9.52%


So, to answer your query: yes, it is easily countable, but with a $25 max bet, you won't get rich doing so ;-)

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

Last edited by: ssho88 on Jun 2, 2019
DogHand
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June 2nd, 2019 at 12:06:34 PM permalink
With a nominal 52-card cutoff, I get these results for a 10-million-shoe simulation:

SBBankerPlayer
Pays1510
Trigger46
Play%10.25%2.68%
Hit%5.95%8.62%
EV%5.12%6.71%


Comparing these results to the 14-card-cutoff results posted earlier in this thread dramatically illustrates the value of penetration when counting this sidebet.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand
UCivan
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June 2nd, 2019 at 4:41:53 PM permalink
Vegas casinos cut one and 1/4 decks, about 65 cards.
DogHand
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June 2nd, 2019 at 5:42:05 PM permalink
Quote: UCivan

Vegas casinos cut one and 1/4 decks, about 65 cards.



UCivan,

Is that an 8D game?

Dog Hand
UCivan
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June 2nd, 2019 at 5:52:52 PM permalink
Quote: DogHand

UCivan,

Is that an 8D game?

Dog Hand

yes
DogHand
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June 3rd, 2019 at 10:42:08 AM permalink
UCivan,

With a nominal 65-card cutoff, my sim gives these results:

SBBankerPlayer
Pays1510
Trigger46
Play%9.48%2.19%
Hit%5.93%8.56%
EV%4.78%6.09%


Once again, as the number of cards cut off increases, the advantage gained by counting decreases... no surprise!

On an EV/shoe basis, using 71 rounds/shoe with 65 cut off, these correspond to 0.32 units/shoe on the Banker sidebet, and 0.095 units/shoe on the Player sidebet: combined, with the $25 max, you'll earn about $10/shoe... I think the casino can relax.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand
panda1314
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June 3rd, 2019 at 5:02:40 PM permalink
Quote: DogHand

UCivan,

With a nominal 65-card cutoff, my sim gives these results:

SBBankerPlayer
Pays1510
Trigger46
Play%9.48%2.19%
Hit%5.93%8.56%
EV%4.78%6.09%


Once again, as the number of cards cut off increases, the advantage gained by counting decreases... no surprise!

On an EV/shoe basis, using 71 rounds/shoe with 65 cut off, these correspond to 0.32 units/shoe on the Banker sidebet, and 0.095 units/shoe on the Player sidebet: combined, with the $25 max, you'll earn about $10/shoe... I think the casino can relax.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

I could follow your math and logic clearly until you said 71 hands make $10/shoe. How did you get 0.32 units/shoe, 0.095 unit/shoe? Thank you
DogHand
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June 3rd, 2019 at 7:40:44 PM permalink
Quote: panda1314

<snip>I could follow your math and logic clearly until you said 71 hands make $10/shoe. How did you get 0.32 units/shoe, 0.095 unit/shoe? Thank you

dated

panda1314,

Well, if you get 71 hands per shoe, and you play the Banker sidebet on 9.48% of them, you'll play (71 hands/shoe)*(0.0948 Banker sidebets/hand) = 6.73 Banker sidebets/shoe.

On each Banker sidebet, the average EV is 4.78%, so (6.73 Banker sidebets/shoe)*(0.0478 units/Banker sidebet) = 0.32 units/shoe for the Banker sidebet.

Similarly, for the Player sidebet, you get (71 hands/shoe)*(0.0219 Player sidebets/hand)*(0.0609 units/Player sidebet) = 0.095 units/shoe for the Player sidebet.

Adding these together (because you're keeping both the Banker and Player counts) and multiplying by $25/bet gives $10.38/shoe, which I rounded to $10.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand
panda1314
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June 3rd, 2019 at 11:29:59 PM permalink
Got it. In real life, you cannot just bet $100 for 6-7 hands per shoe and none for other 64/65 hands. If high% of ur bets win, u get kicked out soon.

Thanks a lot though.
DogHand
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June 4th, 2019 at 1:04:28 AM permalink
Quote: panda1314

Got it. In real life, you cannot just bet $100 for 6-7 hands per shoe and none for other 64/65 hands. If high% of ur bets win, u get kicked out soon.

Thanks a lot though.



panda1314,

I have a confession to make: although I regularly play blackjack, I've never played baccarat. Perhaps you (or others with experience here) could answer some procedural questions for me.

First, earlier in the thread I wrote: "For each shoe, the number of cards cut off was 14+1 (the burn card)+(number of cards corresponding to the burn card, with A = 1, 2-10 = the pip value, and J,Q,K = 10), so the number cut off varied between 16 and 25. However, one more round was dealt AFTER the cut card appeared, in keeping with Baccarat tradition." Is that an accurate description of the dealing procedure?

Second, can you just play the sidebet, or must you also wager on the "main game" as well?

Third, if a main wager is required to be able to play the sidebet, can the sidebet wager be larger than the main wager?

I suppose I was anticipating that the player would place minimum wagers on Banker or Player every 2-3 rounds, and then pop out a max sidebet wager when appropriate.

Thanks in advance!

Dog Hand
Radged
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June 4th, 2019 at 1:43:08 AM permalink
I'm a little confused. What does it all mean?
UCivan
UCivan
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Joined: Sep 3, 2011
June 4th, 2019 at 8:39:02 AM permalink
I don't play baccarat myself, but I watch it a lot.

First, earlier in the thread I wrote: "For each shoe, the number of cards cut off was 14+1 (the burn card)+(number of cards corresponding to the burn card, with A = 1, 2-10 = the pip value, and J,Q,K = 10), so the number cut off varied between 16 and 25. However, one more round was dealt AFTER the cut card appeared, in keeping with Baccarat tradition." Is that an accurate description of the dealing procedure?

shuffle 8 deck, cut off 65 cards, open 1st card, look at pip value, burn pip cards, start play

Second, can you just play the sidebet, or must you also wager on the "main game" as well?

different casino has different rules. e.g., let you play sides alone iff the total side bets amount to be >$25 at $25-$2,000 table. difficult to put this into analysis.

Third, if a main wager is required to be able to play the sidebet, can the sidebet wager be larger than the main wager?

yes, allowed. but most players do not

I suppose I was anticipating that the player would place minimum wagers on Banker or Player every 2-3 rounds, and then pop out a max sidebet wager when appropriate.

yes, mostly this is the case. But, like Panda says, if you bet main $1,000 and bet side $100, and hit a high % of side, you are escorted out.

I welcome corrections to my answers from other members
ssho88
ssho88
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Joined: Oct 16, 2011
August 12th, 2019 at 10:21:00 AM permalink
Hi DogHand,

What is your simulation results for OLD paytable ? Please note that OLD paytable : Player wins pay 4 to 1 and the Banker pays 5 to 1



Just want to prove that it is NOT countable for OLD paytable. My 100 million shoe simulation results based on OLD paytable :-

a) 96.6% penetration, BANKER 3 CARD WINS, EV/shoe = 0.014unit
b) 87.5% penetration, BANKER 3 CARD WINS, EV/shoe = 0.001unit
c) 96.6% penetration, PLAYER 3 CARD WINS, EV/shoe = 0.177unit
d) 87.5% penetration, PLAYER 3 CARD WINS, EV/shoe = 0.068unit

James
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