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Wizard
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Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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Thanks for this post from:
MrCasinoGames
March 20th, 2019 at 2:39:41 PM permalink
3 Card Wins are a pair of side bets in baccarat at a table in the Gold Coast next to the Hippie Pit. They win if the chosen side wins with three cards. Player wins pay 4 to 1 and the Banker pays 5 to 1. For all the rules and analysis, please click the link I just left.

As usual, I welcome all questions, comments, and corrections.

The question for the poll is would you bet the 3 Card Wins if playing baccarat anyway? Multiple votes allowed.

Question for discussion: Are these countable? (shut up Wiz!)
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
teliot
teliot
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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MrCasinoGames
March 20th, 2019 at 3:20:39 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Are these countable?

Obviously countable. The "Dragon 7" count is almost certainly usable here, as it is correlated to 3-card final hands. (4,5,6,7 = -1, 8,9 = +2). However, there may be an even stronger count.
Gialmere
Gialmere
Joined: Nov 26, 2018
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March 20th, 2019 at 4:35:04 PM permalink
In the first sentence of the Analysis section at WoO, trade out "Banker" for "Player".
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
ssho88
ssho88
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teliot
March 21st, 2019 at 9:03:36 AM permalink
Quote: teliot

Obviously countable. The "Dragon 7" count is almost certainly usable here, as it is correlated to 3-card final hands. (4,5,6,7 = -1, 8,9 = +2). However, there may be an even stronger count.




I beg to differ, obviously it is not so countable, you can rest assured.

Fortunately, it is beatable with a very unique method . . .( shhh...)
Wizard
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Wizard
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teliot
March 21st, 2019 at 7:56:49 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

Obviously countable.



I am just told the maximum bet is $25. Between that and one placement, I'm not going to fuss with it.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
ssho88
ssho88
Joined: Oct 16, 2011
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teliot
March 21st, 2019 at 9:39:23 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

Obviously countable. The "Dragon 7" count is almost certainly usable here, as it is correlated to 3-card final hands. (4,5,6,7 = -1, 8,9 = +2). However, there may be an even stronger count.




100 million shoe simulation results :-

a) 96.6% penetration, BANKER 3 CARD WINS, EV/shoe = 0.014unit
b) 87.5% penetration, BANKER 3 CARD WINS, EV/shoe = 0.001unit
c) 96.6% penetration, PLAYER 3 CARD WINS, EV/shoe = 0.177unit
d) 87.5% penetration, PLAYER 3 CARD WINS, EV/shoe = 0.068unit

So it is not so countable, as per my prediction. Rest assured.
UCivan
UCivan
Joined: Sep 3, 2011
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May 30th, 2019 at 9:41:26 AM permalink
Quote: teliot

Obviously countable. The "Dragon 7" count is almost certainly usable here, as it is correlated to 3-card final hands. (4,5,6,7 = -1, 8,9 = +2). However, there may be an even stronger count.


(1) All popular side bets have been identified as countable by the Professor.
(2) Most gamblers only play the perceived "countable" games
(3) First figure out how much you can make per hour by counting
(4) Then get your bankroll ready and go bet.
UCivan
UCivan
Joined: Sep 3, 2011
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May 30th, 2019 at 9:47:28 AM permalink
Quote: ssho88

100 million shoe simulation results :-

a) 96.6% penetration, BANKER 3 CARD WINS, EV/shoe = 0.014unit
b) 87.5% penetration, BANKER 3 CARD WINS, EV/shoe = 0.001unit
c) 96.6% penetration, PLAYER 3 CARD WINS, EV/shoe = 0.177unit
d) 87.5% penetration, PLAYER 3 CARD WINS, EV/shoe = 0.068unit

So it is not so countable, as per my prediction. Rest assured.



The paytable has changed:

Banker 3 Card Win, 5,4,3,2,1 15 to 1
Banker 3 Card Win, 9,8,7,6, Push

Player 3 Card Win, 5,4,3,2,1 10 to 1
Player 3 Card Win, 9,8,7,6, Push

Countable?
DogHand
DogHand
Joined: Sep 24, 2011
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Thanks for this post from:
MrCasinoGames
May 31st, 2019 at 11:05:08 AM permalink
Quote: UCivan

The paytable has changed:

Banker 3 Card Win, 5,4,3,2,1 15 to 1
Banker 3 Card Win, 9,8,7,6, Push

Player 3 Card Win, 5,4,3,2,1 10 to 1
Player 3 Card Win, 9,8,7,6, Push

Countable?



UCivan,


I get the following EV results for the new paytable:


Baccarat 3-Card Win: New Paytable
ResultPaysProbReturn
Banker Bet
Banker 3-Card Win with Total of 1-5150.05283972120260860.792595818
Banker 3-Card Win with Total of 6-900.09998624256916150
Lose-10.8471740362282300-0.847174036
-0.054578218
Player Bet
Player 3-Card Win with Total of 1-5100.06820548733078590.682054873
Player 3-Card Win with Total of 6-900.12042242410384100
Lose-10.8113720885653730-0.811372089
-0.129317215


Hope this helps!

Dog Hand
UCivan
UCivan
Joined: Sep 3, 2011
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May 31st, 2019 at 8:15:46 PM permalink
Quote: DogHand

UCivan,


I get the following EV results for the new paytable:


Baccarat 3-Card Win: New Paytable
ResultPaysProbReturn
Banker Bet
Banker 3-Card Win with Total of 1-5150.05283972120260860.792595818
Banker 3-Card Win with Total of 6-900.09998624256916150
Lose-10.8471740362282300-0.847174036
-0.054578218
Player Bet
Player 3-Card Win with Total of 1-5100.06820548733078590.682054873
Player 3-Card Win with Total of 6-900.12042242410384100
Lose-10.8113720885653730-0.811372089
-0.129317215


Hope this helps!

Dog Hand



Thank U DogHand.

I was interested in countability? Easy to count?

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