7winner
7winner
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October 20th, 2010 at 1:02:32 PM permalink
https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/craps/
The last question on the page.
"A: Yes, you can make a pass line bet at any time
but you never should make one or add to one after a point is thrown.

Once a point is thrown the odds of winning drop to 33% to 45% depending on the point. You can not add to a don't pass bet because that would favor the player. In your case when a 7 was thrown all pass line bets lost including yours. What happened is what was supposed to happen. Feb. 12, 2000"

Question #1:
The Wizard's statement above is a correct one.
But, A little confusing about "add to one after a point is thrown".
Is he talking about making the odds bet?


I have seen many times a player comes to the table, sees the point is already a 6 or 8, and says, "I want to get in on this, best point to have, I cant lose" and places $5 pass with $10 odds.

I tell the player they are better off betting the same $15 on the field if they "think" they cant lose.
They tell me I do not know what I'm talking about, I'm too old (that part is true) and I should just shut up ( that part may also be true).

Point #2:
ev for $5/w $10 odds on a point6 after a point is established is (17*(5/11))+(-15*(6/11))= -0.454545455 (45.45% chance of winning)
ev for $15 field bet is (12 pays 3X)-0.027777778* $15=-0.416666667 (44.44% chance of winning)

is my ev math correct?
7 winner chicken dinner!
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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October 20th, 2010 at 1:39:24 PM permalink
Quote: 7winner

But, A little confusing about "add to one after a point is thrown".
Is he talking about making the odds bet?

No. He means putting money on, or adding money to, the Pass line. Odds is separate. The advice is to always take maximum odds, if you can handle the stress of putting that much at risk.

The reality is, if you can't handle the stress, go ahead and make a smaller odds bet. If you later feel like increasing it, go ahead! Just don't increase the even money pass bet.



Quote: 7winner

I have seen many times a player comes to the table, sees the point is already a 6 or 8, and says, "I want to get in on this, best point to have, I cant lose" and places $5 pass with $10 odds.

I tell the player they are better off betting the same $15 on the field if they "think" they cant lose.
They tell me I do not know what I'm talking about.

They're right. It's an Apple and Oranges thing. A field bet is a one-roll bet, with much worse odds than a pass with odds, or a place bet.

The alternative would be to make a place bet.

But the reality is this: $15 bet as $5 pass and $10 odds, even after the point of 6 or 8, would pay $5 for the $5 pass and $12 for the $10 odds, for a total of $17. As a place bet at a table where they don't allow fractional units, it would pay $14 to $12, plus even money on the extra $3, for a total of $17. It doesn't matter.

By contrast, if it was a table with frational units, then the place bet would pay $17.50. I have to assume that was not the case, hence, he was correct in telling you that you don't know what you're talking about.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
guido111
guido111
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October 20th, 2010 at 2:24:22 PM permalink
Quote: 7winner


I have seen many times a player comes to the table, sees the point is already a 6 or 8, and says, "I want to get in on this, best point to have, I cant lose" and places $5 pass with $10 odds.

I tell the player they are better off betting the same $15 on the field if they "think" they cant lose.
They tell me I do not know what I'm talking about, I'm too old (that part is true) and I should just shut up ( that part may also be true).

Point #2:
ev for $5/w $10 odds on a point6 after a point is established is (17*(5/11))+(-15*(6/11))= -0.454545455 (45.45% chance of winning)
ev for $15 field bet is (12 pays 3X)-0.027777778* $15=-0.416666667 (44.44% chance of winning)

is my ev math correct?


Your EV math appears to be correct for both wagers.

So you are comparing a $15 field bet to a:
$15 pass with odds bet (5w/10) made AFTER the come out roll.
Interesting.

That must be why The Wizard says not to make a pass line wager after a point has been established. You have lost your chance of winning on the come-out roll.
But, Many players still do walk up to a table after a point is already made.
The pass line with odds bet then becomes a "put bet".
see:https://wizardofodds.com/craps
about half way down under Put Bets
7winner
7winner
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October 20th, 2010 at 2:42:55 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear


The alternative would be to make a place bet.

By contrast, if it was a table with frational units, then the place bet would pay $17.50.



I had not thought of that. Good point. The place bet has the lower EV IF it pays 17.5 for a $15 wager.

1. ev for making a (put bet) pass line and odds bet- $5/w $10 odds on a point6 AFTER
a point is established is (17*(5/11))+(-15*(6/11))= -0.454545455

2. ev for $15 field bet is (12 pays 3X)-0.027777778* $15= -0.416666667

3. ev for $15 place bet is (15 pays 17.5) (17.5*(5/11))+(-15*(6/11))= -0.227272727
4. ev for $15 place bet is (15 pays 17) (17*(5/11))+(-15*(6/11))= -0.454545455
7 winner chicken dinner!
guido111
guido111
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October 20th, 2010 at 3:01:06 PM permalink
Quote: 7winner

I had not thought of that. Good point. The place bet has the lower EV IF it pays 17.5 for a $15 wager.

1. ev for making a (put bet) pass line and odds bet- $5/w $10 odds on a point6 AFTER
a point is established is (17*(5/11))+(-15*(6/11))= -0.454545455

2. ev for $15 field bet is (12 pays 3X)-0.027777778* $15= -0.416666667

3. ev for $15 place bet is (15 pays 17.5) (17.5*(5/11))+(-15*(6/11))= -0.227272727
4. ev for $15 place bet is (15 pays 17) (17*(5/11))+(-15*(6/11))= -0.454545455



When a player makes a $15 pass line bet on the come out roll, the EV is:
$15*(-7/495)= $-0.2121

But a $5 line bet with $10 odds the EV is now:
$5*(-7/495)= $-0.0707

So, a $15 pass line bettor would be better off in the long run by making a $5 line bet and always taking $10 pass odds.
Lower EV and adding more variance.
Sounds like a "goatcabin" post. He knows what he is talking about.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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October 20th, 2010 at 3:01:25 PM permalink
Quote: 7winner

I have seen many times a player comes to the table, sees the point is already a 6 or 8, and says, "I want to get in on this, best point to have, I cant lose" and places $5 pass with $10 odds.

I tell the player they are better off betting the same $15 on the field if they "think" they cant lose.
They tell me I do not know what I'm talking about, I'm too old (that part is true) and I should just shut up ( that part may also be true).



If the player wants to bet on the, "best point to have" (6 or 8), why would they want to bet the Field instead (which does not win if a 6 or 8 is rolled)?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
cclub79
cclub79
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October 20th, 2010 at 3:05:05 PM permalink
There are plenty of times that making a pass line bet with substantial odds after a point has been established is better than the corresponding place (or buy) bet. From the Wizard's Craps page:

If the point is a 4 or 10, the house edge on the put bet with six times odds is the same as a corresponding buy bet. If the point is a 5 or 9, the house edge on the put bet with four times odds is the same as a corresponding place bet. If the point is a 6 or 8, the house edge on the put bet with five times odds is the same as a corresponding place bet.

So if the table minimum is $5, anything greater than a $35 buy bet on the 4 or 10 would be better gambled as a $5 pass and 6x+ odds...anything greater than a $25 place bet on the 5 or 9 would be better gambled as a $5 pass and 4x+ odds, and anything greater than a $30 place bet on the 6 or 8 would be better gambled as a $5 pass and 5x+ odds. So if you are at a casino that offers 10x, 20x, or more odds, then you'd be better off that way. If you are an on/off bettor, than you should know that you can't take down the pass portion, as it must wait till resolution.
7winner
7winner
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October 20th, 2010 at 3:26:27 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

If the player wants to bet on the, "best point to have" (6 or 8), why would they want to bet the Field instead (which does not win if a 6 or 8 is rolled)?


You are right.
The player can do whatever he wants to.

The example is a player making a $5 pass line bet and taking $10 odds
AFTER
a point is already established.

Comparing the EV to the same $15 bet as a field bet. The field bet EV is lower.

It has nothing to do with wanting a 6 to roll.
The math shows that the expected value of each bet, the field is the lowest. And it can even win more than a "put bet" for the same amount bet.
7 winner chicken dinner!
MathExtremist
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October 20th, 2010 at 3:36:43 PM permalink
Quote: 7winner

I had not thought of that. Good point. The place bet has the lower EV IF it pays 17.5 for a $15 wager.

1. ev for making a (put bet) pass line and odds bet- $5/w $10 odds on a point6 AFTER
a point is established is (17*(5/11))+(-15*(6/11))= -0.454545455

2. ev for $15 field bet is (12 pays 3X)-0.027777778* $15= -0.416666667

3. ev for $15 place bet is (15 pays 17.5) (17.5*(5/11))+(-15*(6/11))= -0.227272727
4. ev for $15 place bet is (15 pays 17) (17*(5/11))+(-15*(6/11))= -0.454545455



As I recall, the break-even point for put bet + odds vs. place bets is 5x for 6,8 and 4x for 4,5,9,10. If you're at a $5, 10x table that allows put bets and you're normally a green chip place bettor, you should generally be making put bets instead. The only time I remember doing this was a long time ago at Casino Royale where I played the inside numbers as $1 + $20/$30/$50, etc. Yes, I did make a few $100 odds bets that session.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
cclub79
cclub79
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October 20th, 2010 at 3:40:34 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

As I recall, the break-even point for put bet + odds vs. place bets is 5x for 6,8 and 4x for 4,5,9,10. If you're at a $5, 10x table that allows put bets and you're normally a green chip place bettor, you should generally be making put bets instead. The only time I remember doing this was a long time ago at Casino Royale where I played the inside numbers as $1 + $20/$30/$50, etc. Yes, I did make a few $100 odds bets that session.



Almost...it's 6x for 4/10, as I posted above.
MathExtremist
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October 20th, 2010 at 3:49:26 PM permalink
Quote: cclub79

Almost...it's 6x for 4/10, as I posted above.



$5 place 4 bet pays $9; $1 + $4 put 4 bet also pays $9 (1 flat + 8 odds). I think the 6x figure is for buy 4/10 bets.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
RaleighCraps
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October 20th, 2010 at 4:10:28 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

$5 place 4 bet pays $9; $1 + $4 put 4 bet also pays $9 (1 flat + 8 odds). I think the 6x figure is for buy 4/10 bets.



What am I doing wrong then with this calculation?

Buy 4 for $100. Pays $195 (200-5 vig)

Put 4 for $10 with $90 odds. Pays $190 (180 + 10).

That shows that a Put bet with 9x odds does not pay as good as the Buy bet.
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cclub79
cclub79
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October 20th, 2010 at 4:26:18 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

$5 place 4 bet pays $9; $1 + $4 put 4 bet also pays $9 (1 flat + 8 odds). I think the 6x figure is for buy 4/10 bets.



Right right. I was assuming, as the wizard did, that you'd buy the 4/10 rather than placing it, since you'd get a better return. But if it's less than $20 they probably don't let you buy it, so you are right.
TIMSPEED
TIMSPEED
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October 26th, 2010 at 10:03:00 AM permalink
I always get a laugh out of people who RUN up to the table, and ask "What's the point?!?", to which the dealer always points to the puck, then the player will drop $5 on the pass with $10 in odds, only to immediately lose to a 7-out.
Out of ALL the times I've seen players make a put bet with odds, I can count on ONE HAND the number of times I've saw them win vs. lose.
Idiots, I say...same type of people who will throw money (paper) in in the middle of a hot hand, only to have the next roll 7-out.
Gambling calls to me...like this ~> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Nap37mNSmQ
boxxy
boxxy
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September 29th, 2020 at 8:32:09 AM permalink
I know this is an old thread but I thought I'd give it a shot.
I'm trying to work out the blended HE for a bet placed on the pass line after the come-out roll, my mind has gone blank!
DeMango
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Thanks for this post from:
FleaStiffboxxy
September 29th, 2020 at 10:04:43 AM permalink
So, on average your bet losses 60% of the time. Great bet!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
odiousgambit
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FleaStiffboxxy
September 29th, 2020 at 10:13:02 AM permalink
depends on what the number is, we'll do it the old-timer's way

there are 6 ways to lose

if it is a 4 or 10, 3 ways to win , 9 total ways, 6/9* is 2/3, 3/9** is 1/3, and 2/3 -1/3 = 1/3 or 33% HE

5/9 , 4 ways to win, 3:2 against, 3/5 -2/5 = 1/5 or 20% HE

6/8 , 5 ways to win, 6:5 against, 6/11 -5/11 = 1/11 or 9.09% HE

* that 6 ways to lose
** that 3 ways to win
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: 典hanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
charliepatrick
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boxxy
September 29th, 2020 at 11:51:43 AM permalink
Only making the "Pass" bet doesn't really make sense. However if you'r ealso goingto add odds, it depends on how much you're planning to add. Essentially you're paying the House Edge on the "Pass" bet to be allowed to make the Odds bet. Eventually this becomes a better way to "place" the point.

On a 6 or 8 the breakeven is placing 5x odds ($1 on Pass and $5 Odds stands to win $1+$6 and lose $1+$5). On the other numbers you would need to be able to place more odds to reach breakeven.
DeMango
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boxxy
September 29th, 2020 at 12:36:15 PM permalink
Quote: boxxy

blended HE for a bet placed on the pass line after the come-out roll


Blended is the question
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.

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