camz1969
Joined: Dec 6, 2016
• Posts: 26
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February 3rd, 2018 at 11:32:06 PM permalink
In theory, if you watch/play long enough and always count the 10s, wouldn't there would be a situation in which there would be all 10s left in an 8 deck shoe (even before hitting the cut card)? You could then make a max bet on tie, knowing it will come up 0-0. In an 8 deck shoe there are 128 10-value cards. I would think on rare occasions this situation would actually happen and you would know you're going to win. I know the general consensus is bac isn't worth counting, but this is a GUARANTEED win if you ever see it. Anybody know the probability or frequency of seeing this situation?
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
• Posts: 12840
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February 4th, 2018 at 6:26:57 AM permalink
Quote: camz1969

In theory, if you watch/play long enough and always count the 10s, wouldn't there would be a situation in which there would be all 10s left in an 8 deck shoe (even before hitting the cut card)? You could then make a max bet on tie, knowing it will come up 0-0. In an 8 deck shoe there are 128 10-value cards. I would think on rare occasions this situation would actually happen and you would know you're going to win. I know the general consensus is bac isn't worth counting, but this is a GUARANTEED win if you ever see it. Anybody know the probability or frequency of seeing this situation?

You can read this about the Tie Bet in general:

https://www.888casino.com/blog/baccarat-tips/beating-the-baccarat-tie-bet

Eliot Jacobson, Ph.D. shows that there's almost nothing there on 8-to-1 pays. Almost nothing on 9-1, either, but more than nothing.

Here is another one about Ties and your specific scenario:

https://www.888casino.com/blog/baccarat-tips/baccarat-tie-bet-flimflam/

If you scroll roughly three-quarters of the way down that page, what you will find is that all-0's occur with this frequency based on the cutoffs:

12 Cards- 1 in 2,866,173 Hands

14 Cards- 1 in 30,104,148 Hands

16 Cards- 1 in 404,381,500 Hands

18+ Cards- Not even expected to happen once in 20,000,000 shoes.

I guess what I'm saying is get comfortable, because you're going to be watching Baccarat for awhile.
Vultures can't be choosers.
standbymyman
Joined: Feb 13, 2015