Quote:Keyser

-It's not always limited to just five spins. I think you will see that I mentioned that above. There are so many variables at work that the effect is not always persistent.

The dealer touching the pocket with wet or oily hands can poison not only the track, but the rotor as well.

" if 23, 35, 14, 2, and 0 are sticky but 34 just hit, aren't I hurting myself by betting on the 34 just because it's one of the most recent numbers?"

-Yes, sometimes you will lose. Your point? I would also not assume that an entire section is a good bet.

That'd be interesting to test based on your data. If we assume your data is sound, and there's no reason to doubt it, then further analysis should be able to determine answers to questions such as:

1) What is the observed probability of a number repeating, if not 1/38? How does that change over time?

2) What is the observed probability of a number and it's N neighbors repeating, if not N/38? How does that change over time?

If you look at N = 1..18 or so, you may find that a certain combination has different EV than others. In other words, assuming there is evidence of bias, and also assuming that the bias persists, what is the optimal way to take advantage of it?

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mrjjj is corrupting y'all. Back to reality!

Moving from -5.26% to the (-2.8 and -3.4% for five numbers) has it well beyond five standard deviations after a million trials. Dropping the house edge from -5.25% to just -2.7% would be close to 10 standard deviations, so just guessing, the five number is probably close to seven or nine standard deviations above the norm.

Quote:KeyserNo, we're not comparing apples to apples here and it's beyond the normal variance.

Moving from -5.26% to the (-2.8 and -3.4% for five numbers) has it well beyond five standard deviations after a million trials. Dropping the house edge from -5.25% to just -2.7% would be close to 10 standard deviations, so just guessing, the five number is probably close to seven or nine standard deviations above the norm.

But if that's true, you should be able to move from -2.7% to zero or very close to it. Are you suggesting that the same dust/sweat factors you observed don't appear on a 37-spot wheel?

Quote:KeyserI feel that I have provided a satisfactory amount of information given the circumstances

I have explained why it can and does happen and I have provided enough information for you to make an informed decision on your own. If you feel that you need further prove, then perhaps you should go out and collect some spins on your own and test them.

Well, if this is so, then you should drop everything, and head to the nearest casino right now, and bet there on 10 and 22, because I have provided just as much information to you that betting my birthday (10/22) gives you a large advantage over the house. If you feel that you have provided enough information, then I have provided enough to you as well (because I have provided as much), so what are you waiting for?

If you feel that you need further proof, just go out and collect some spins on your own!

Quote:KeyserDid you read the part where I said that I tracked several hundred different wheels?

Maybe there was a reason for that. :)

Well now, just a minute. If the bias is on real wheels, in real world conditions, and you then used several hundred different wheels, then you didn't actually explore the manufacturing/real world bias of any one wheel for 1,000,000 trials, did you? Assuming that all wheels got the same number of trials, and that "several hundred" means a minimum of 200, then no one wheel got more than 5000 trials.

I don't doubt your sincerity, or your results, but I disagree with your interpretation of your results. I think you are seeing patterns where there are none.

I am not advocating this use of this method as a means by which you can win back your farm, your tractor, your wife, or your dog.

You imply that every roulette wheel you've ever played at is defective. Is that what you believe?Quote:KeyserMy point is that past numbers that have hit on a real roulette wheel dealt by a live dealer do have a slight effect on the numbers that have yet to hit. The cause is related the the nonrandom effects of a defective gaming device being influenced intentionally or unintentionally by the dealer and other conditions at the table.