Scavenger Raising in Four Card Poker

[Low Content, Thinly Veiled Brag]

In Four Card Poker by ShuffleMaster/Roger Snow, all 3X raises are +EV according to JB's near-optimal strategy:

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• Pair of Aces or better: Bet 3X

• Pair of Ks: Bet 3X, except bet 1X against an Ace and you don't have an Ace nor 4.

• Pair of Js or Qs: Bet 3X, except bet 1X if the dealer's card outranks pair your pair rank and does not match a singleton in your hand.

• Pair of 9s or 10s: Bet 3X, except bet 1X if dealer card outranks your pair rank.

• Pair of 8s: Bet 1X, except bet 3X against a 2

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I have a derivatives trading colleague who loves this game, especially the Aces Up bet. He will bet two hands, $300 on Aces Up, and $200 on the Ante. He never raises unless holding two pair or better, and welcomes me putting the additional $400 on the Raise. I play a hand or two next to him to relax, $5 on the Aces Up, $10 on the Ante.

Anyone have an approximation of what this play is worth, if we play for 4-5 hours every weekend?

On the same topic, anyone have stories of similar situations in UTH, Blackjack, etc?

Off the top of my head, a fortune. You will get rich betting his hand, especially at that bet level. Only the opportunities are rare. Can you needle him to raise more often, for example on mid to high pairs?

Somebody probably has a better estimation of what it is worth.

Quote: teddys

Off the top of my head, a fortune. You will get rich betting his hand, especially at that bet level. Only the opportunities are rare. Can you needle him to raise more often, for example on mid to high pairs?

Somebody probably has a better estimation of what it is worth.

So here are the actual numbers (I think): every time you're supposed to raise 3X with one pair (1 out of every ~3 rounds, playing two hands), you're favored to win 57.8% of the time.

So my expected win is $62.40 each raise opportunity.

Quote: teddys

Off the top of my head, a fortune. You will get rich betting his hand, especially at that bet level. Only the opportunities are rare. Can you needle him to raise more often, for example on mid to high pairs?

Somebody probably has a better estimation of what it is worth.

Since C3b is willing to discuss the play, I will ask, ok? Your question confuses me. I thought the scenario is:

1. His buddy's a high roller but doesn't bet optimum. I'm assuming he's betting 1x where he should bet 3x on the hands listed.
2. C3b takes the raises the OS calls for but his buddy doesn't want to play, because it won't affect what happens to his AU bet or ante bet (assuming he's betting 1X instead of optimum 3X) so C3B is taking the other 2X when that happens. So C3B is scooping the cream with each opportunity to be aggressive instead of underbetting the EV, and they both win and are both happy.

If I have that correctly, then
3. Why would C3B want his buddy to take up the slack on the raise that he wants for himself? Or am I misunderstanding your comment? Or do you think C3B's buddy is folding instead of minraising?

Thanks! Genuinely want to learn something here.