UTH - My dilemma with the 2.185% house edge

When was the last time you caught a Royal? Straight Flush? Quads?

I’ve been playing UTH for just over 10 months. I play 2-3 times a week and try to grind out 3-4 hours per session. So about 90-130 hands per session. So I’m in for the short term (whatever that is) and in this time I have never seen a Royal dealt, only one Straight Flush (yes - it was to the dealer), and a few Quads (none to me). Given the probabilities on catching one of these hands, my expectation of getting one is nil. Yeah, they are in the deck, but I don’t count on having one dealt to my seat.

So this got me to thinking about the -2.185% return or house edge. This number is derived from a few gazillion trials – the long term. But in reality, is 2.185% accurate when there is extremely little or no likelihood of me ever catching one of the big hands? I doubt that I will ever play enough hands for those probabilities to kick in for me in my short term sessions. It will probably take years.

I was looking at the Wiz’s outcome and return table for UTH. This table displays and calculates the 2.185% return taking into account all 52 hand outcomes assuming optimal strategy. I wondered, trying to be somewhat logical and rational, what happens to the 2.185% return if I factored out the returns for the Royal, Straight Flush and Quad hands? Yes, again I know these hands are in the deck, but are improbable to be dealt to me. I consider them irrelevant in the overall scheme of things and to have no payout value for purposes of calculating the house edge – for me they represent a push. Doing this, I got a new return total of -0.072847 or a 7.2847% house edge. WOW!! This is for me the realistic house edge on all hands I play until I hit that big hand and between hitting that big hand and the next time I hit a big hand (slim to none chance and these big hands aren’t so big considering the blind payouts).

Geesh!! 7.2847% House edge - Totally unacceptable! I might be done playing UTH.

This is probably poor logic and bad math or both to the smart posters here. I’m assuming something is wrong here, so tell me what it is. Thanks in advance

The odds of getting quads is only 600-1 and a straight flush is 3600-1. You have been unlucky not to cash in on these. It will happen. I play this game for a living and have had 47 straight flushes dealt to me. I have seen 12 royal flushes but none of them were mine. There are only 6 spots at the table and they are not always full. Nonetheless, I am encouraged by the fact that I have won money for 5 straight years without the benefit of a royal. On the other hand, maybe I have received more than my share of str flushes. Hang in there, they will come.

Quote: Commish

The odds of getting quads is only 600-1 and a straight flush is 3600-1... I play this game for a living and have had 47 straight flushes dealt to me...

You're saying you've played about 170,000 hands? At about 25 HPH, that's about 6800 hours of play.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

You're saying you've played about 170,000 hands? At about 25 HPH, that's about 6800 hours of play.

Or about 27 hours a week, over 5 years.

Not a terrible amount of time to "work".

Quote: Dieter

Or about 27 hours a week, over 5 years.

Not a terrible amount of time to "work".

And then playing it "professionally". I want to know his edge on the game.

I would agree with taking out the big hands for a reasonable estimate of a short-term return. This is true of any game where some of the return is in long-shots, like video poker.

Let's also remember that the 2.185% is based on the Ante only.

Quote: CharmedQuark

When was the last time you caught a Royal? Straight Flush? Quads?

I’ve been playing UTH for just over 10 months. I play 2-3 times a week and try to grind out 3-4 hours per session. So about 90-130 hands per session. So I’m in for the short term (whatever that is) and in this time I have never seen a Royal dealt, only one Straight Flush (yes - it was to the dealer), and a few Quads (none to me). Given the probabilities on catching one of these hands, my expectation of getting one is nil. Yeah, they are in the deck, but I don’t count on having one dealt to my seat.

So this got me to thinking about the -2.185% return or house edge. This number is derived from a few gazillion trials – the long term. But in reality, is 2.185% accurate when there is extremely little or no likelihood of me ever catching one of the big hands? I doubt that I will ever play enough hands for those probabilities to kick in for me in my short term sessions. It will probably take years.

I was looking at the Wiz’s outcome and return table for UTH. This table displays and calculates the 2.185% return taking into account all 52 hand outcomes assuming optimal strategy. I wondered, trying to be somewhat logical and rational, what happens to the 2.185% return if I factored out the returns for the Royal, Straight Flush and Quad hands? Yes, again I know these hands are in the deck, but are improbable to be dealt to me. I consider them irrelevant in the overall scheme of things and to have no payout value for purposes of calculating the house edge – for me they represent a push. Doing this, I got a new return total of -0.072847 or a 7.2847% house edge. WOW!! This is for me the realistic house edge on all hands I play until I hit that big hand and between hitting that big hand and the next time I hit a big hand (slim to none chance and these big hands aren’t so big considering the blind payouts).

Geesh!! 7.2847% House edge - Totally unacceptable! I might be done playing UTH.

This is probably poor logic and bad math or both to the smart posters here. I’m assuming something is wrong here, so tell me what it is. Thanks in advance

I followed your tracks and I don't disagree with your results as far as you went.

I do think there's a lot to be considered in the element of risk discussion on the UTH page, though. HE was developed to display comparative info on games that didn't have a decision point in most/all cases; you bet (ante'd), there was a result: on craps, roulette, baccarat, and most blackjack. BJ HE's are modified by probability of split/dbl hands, as well as other rule variations, but all based on the ante.

UTH HE is calculated based on the ante as well for standardization, but you can't play for just the ante. You must bet the blind, and to stay in the hand also bet the play at some level. The Wizard lists the average bet amount using optimal strategy at 4.152252x the ante, which I think you must consider when figuring your level of risk on this game. Using that amount, the EOR (corrected HE) is 1.754397% even if discounting ever getting the big 3 hands.

So, whether you find value in the game at that level is entirely up to you. But I think it's not unreasonable compared to nearly every other carnival game, only a little worse than the best craps bets, close to playing 6:5 BJ. Certainly better than roulette.

Funny thing for me is, I play a fair amount of live poker and in the time that I've been playing UTH, I've gotten 3 royals...all while playing hold'em in the poker room. First one got me a $500 bonus, second a $300 bonus + a cool jacket (not) and the third $300 and no jacket (because I declined it). Oh well...life it about timing.

Quote: Commish

The odds of getting quads is only 600-1 and a straight flush is 3600-1. You have been unlucky not to cash in on these. It will happen. I play this game for a living and have had 47 straight flushes dealt to me. I have seen 12 royal flushes but none of them were mine. There are only 6 spots at the table and they are not always full. Nonetheless, I am encouraged by the fact that I have won money for 5 straight years without the benefit of a royal. On the other hand, maybe I have received more than my share of str flushes. Hang in there, they will come.

"you play this game for a living" could you expand on that for us????

getting 4oak or better once in a while seems pretty critical in this game when you look at payoffs

you can't help but notice the rarity of it. Well, you get 7 cards only, never more- no discard. That matters.

Quote: Commish

The odds of getting quads is only 600-1 and a straight flush is 3600-1. You have been unlucky not to cash in on these. It will happen. I play this game for a living and have had 47 straight flushes dealt to me. I have seen 12 royal flushes but none of them were mine. There are only 6 spots at the table and they are not always full. Nonetheless, I am encouraged by the fact that I have won money for 5 straight years without the benefit of a royal. On the other hand, maybe I have received more than my share of str flushes. Hang in there, they will come.

You play UTH for a living? I'm surprised. Not saying it isn't possible. I'm curious if you'd like to reveal more information. (I'm guessing not...)

As for me, I have gotten three straight flushes. More quads than I can count. Never received nor seen a royal while I was playing.

Thanks for all the comments. I’m relieved that I wasn’t totally out in left field with my OP.

BBB – I did consider the EOR. Statistically, there wasn’t much difference with the HE. Both the EOR and the HE more than tripled. That’s kind of a quantum jump in quark terms.

Well, it appears that I haven’t played long enough or I’m not all that lucky like most on this thread. I’ve never relied on luck when I play. My playing rule is to learn the game, trust the math, play the basic strategy and not play casino games with a HE over 3% or never make bets on plays (bonuses etc.) that are over 3%.

I really like to play UTH. I love the opportunity to shove that 4x bet at the casino knowing their back is against the wall with my 50+% win advantage. I'm pondering whether to continue playing.

There is another table on the Wiz’s UTH page that shows the average wager and return from each bet which results in a total average win of -0.02185 from the average 4.152252 wagers. I could use that table and forget about all those individual hand outcome statistics (out of sight – out of mind). Now that is irrational.

This is interesting. I have thought about it as well. Quads are quite common. I've had about 8 or 9 of them(including one yesterday)and saw 3 just the other day. Never seen a royal, except once in a cash game. But take Mississippi Stud. Play it for a few hours, days, even weeks, and you will probably never see a straight through royal. How much of that makes up the expected value? If you don't get one, are you really playing a game with a 10% house edge? UTH is a volatile game. In my experience you will only stay break even or positive if you are hole carding. If you can stay that way and profit when you get the occasional straight flush or royal, then you're ahead.

I have had the opposite experience with UTH. I seem to be allergic to quads, having had them once, and that was a community 4oak. I was fortunate to be holding an A blank and won the hand.
I have been dealt 2 each royal and straight flushes, all coming on the turn/river, never the flop. On the other hand I have also managed to kill the game with more boats than I can remember, and that seems to be making up for the lack of quads.

For me watching the "real poker" players come in to UTH and toss away bad money after worse money, is where the real fun is.

Quote: Sandybestdog

This is interesting. I have thought about it as well. Quads are quite common. I've had about 8 or 9 of them(including one yesterday)and saw 3 just the other day. Never seen a royal, except once in a cash game. But take Mississippi Stud. Play it for a few hours, days, even weeks, and you will probably never see a straight through royal. How much of that makes up the expected value? If you don't get one, are you really playing a game with a 10% house edge? UTH is a volatile game. In my experience you will only stay break even or positive if you are hole carding. If you can stay that way and profit when you get the occasional straight flush or royal, then you're ahead.

The Expected Value tables would be on the Wizardofodds.com site for the game. I'd link you, but I'm on my phone at the moment.

What a Video Poker player playing a positive game would call what you are describing as the, 'Drop,' between Royals. The more lifetime play you have at a certain denomination, the more likely you are to approach the Expected Value, and the less meaningful the drop is because, as you play hundreds of thousands of more hands, your actual number of Royals should more closely approximate the Expected number.

For a player with a limited bankroll, or for a player who wants to attempt to determine (or simulate) how long a certain bankroll should last given the amount of hands he/she should get in the event of missing the higher paying hands.

Quote: Mission146

The Expected Value tables would be on the Wizardofodds.com site for the game. I'd link you, but I'm on my phone at the moment.

What a Video Poker player playing a positive game would call what you are describing as the, 'Drop,' between Royals. The more lifetime play you have at a certain denomination, the more likely you are to approach the Expected Value, and the less meaningful the drop is because, as you play hundreds of thousands of more hands, your actual number of Royals should more closely approximate the Expected number.

For a player with a limited bankroll, or for a player who wants to attempt to determine (or simulate) how long a certain bankroll should last given the amount of hands he/she should get in the event of missing the higher paying hands.

Yes exactly. Video poker is the perfect example. I hate it when people say it pays back 99% or whatever. It doesn't. It pays back probably 90% until you hit a royal. That happens what like 1 in every 40,000 hands? You can easily go 1 or 2 cycles without hitting one. In blackjack things like hit/stand on 17, double after split, blackjack paying 3:2, and surrender are what make up the house edge. If you play 100 hands, all of these will happen, so you can feel the effects of the full house edge, plus or minus variance.

Quote: Sandybestdog

Yes exactly. Video poker is the perfect example. I hate it when people say it pays back 99% or whatever. It doesn't. It pays back probably 90% until you hit a royal. That happens what like 1 in every 40,000 hands? You can easily go 1 or 2 cycles without hitting one. In blackjack things like hit/stand on 17, double after split, blackjack paying 3:2, and surrender are what make up the house edge. If you play 100 hands, all of these will happen, so you can feel the effects of the full house edge, plus or minus variance.

Most Video Poker games still pay substantially over 90% if you don't hit a Royal with enough hands. Really good ones would still pay over 97%.

It's true that you can easily go multiple cycles without hitting one, but you could also hit a couple within a thousand hands. Theoretically, you could hit them back to back.

Video Poker isn't for everyone, but I like it.

Quote: chefphydeaux

For me watching the "real poker" players come in to UTH and toss away bad money after worse money, is where the real fun is.

Can you elaborate? I find most poker players have some idea of the optimal strategy and don't play Trips...

BTW speaking of that I tend to play Trips as I feel like I won't get close to the expected value with the limited bankroll/time I play and like the additional variance.

Quote: JohnnyComet

Can you elaborate? I find most poker players have some idea of the optimal strategy and don't play Trips...

BTW speaking of that I tend to play Trips as I feel like I won't get close expected value with the limited bankroll/time I play and like the additional variance.

I am mostly a table games player. Sometimes when I just want to play something different I would take $20 or $40 and go play video poker. Of course 99 out of 100 times you lose that money in 10 minutes so it really wasn't much fun. A friend got me to play a few poker tournaments and those were fun so instead of playing video poker, I'll play a 3/6 limit cash game. I still lose the $40 but it's funner and I learn more. Occasionally I do end up ahead.

From talking with other poker players, most don't even know there is a table game. There is a stark contrast between table game and poker players. You can spot a poker player a mile away. They have their little hoodies and jumbo Beats headsets and sunglasses. They walk around with their Red Bulls and throw their chips in like in like they're in the WSOP main event. They like winning from other players whereas table games players just want to take down the house.

I think UTH taught me about odds, kickers and outs but it is very different than poker. You raise 4x with K5 but I have found in poker that it's better to have 2 medium cards than a high and low. 8/9 suited often turns into a nice hand. Overall I have found poker to be pretty dumb. All this preflop raising and folding and less than half the time nobody even sees the river. Case in point I was playing during a high hand session that rolled over every 30 minutes. It was up to $500. My side of the table was all just calling or folding preflop but the other side thought they were all Phil Ivey and were raising to $6 and $12 preflop. We all said to them why don't we check or min raise it to the river and then you can bet all you want. Then we can have a shot at the high hand. Well they didn't want to do that. I got Q5 and somebody raised it so I folded. Three 5's then proceeded to come out.

Quote: Sandybestdog

Overall I have found poker to be pretty dumb. All this preflop raising and folding and less than half the time nobody even sees the river. Case in point I was playing during a high hand session that rolled over every 30 minutes. It was up to $500. My side of the table was all just calling or folding preflop but the other side thought they were all Phil Ivey and were raising to $6 and $12 preflop. We all said to them why don't we check or min raise it to the river and then you can bet all you want. Then we can have a shot at the high hand. Well they didn't want to do that.

They presumably didn't want to do that because they were interested in playing poker, not the lottery. If you told me to just check everything until the river so that you had a shot at the high hand, I wouldn't listen either. Simply waiting to see who hits the high hand is not what's fun about the game for me or for many others. The fun is in actually playing cards.

Also, agreements like the one you proposed are typically against the rules. It might result in forfeiting any high hand winnings--I know that's true for bad beat jackpots anyway but not sure if it's true for high hands within a room as well.

It sounds like live poker is not your game, but I don't see why that makes it "dumb." I would argue that it's the "smartest" and most complex game in the casino.

Not sure what's with your attitude. Just giving my opinion. Probably poker is not the game for me. That's fine. I was just using that as an example. There was 20 minutes left in the high hand promotion. It was just a suggestion. As I recall, that was actually one of my few winning sessions. I'm merely saying that I don't like all the raising and such preflop and how it doesn't make sense to me. You'll especially find it common in the cheap tournaments. 5 hands in and people are going all in preflop. How is that making the game complex like you say? That sounds like straight up gambling to me.

Case in point, I was playing a tournament a few weeks ago. I was big blind which was $400. I get pocket aces. This guy was playing loose and aggressive all night. Like raising to $10k all the time. Really annoying. Just like I expected, he raised preflop and it was his biggest yet, about $15k chips. I think this is exactly what I want. I had $18k left and went all in. Another guy calls as well. Sure enough big bettor has kings. They run out the cards and I think I held up when I see the other guy had Queen/8 and two 8's are on the board. Please tell me how that is the poker you describe and not the lottery? Who calls 45 big blinds with Queen/8 against 2 others? That's not poker. If a king had come, then fine. Big deal it's a $40 tournament, everybody has their bad beat stories. But I would prefer to be outplayed, not out lucked.

I rarely play UTH or any carnival game. Usually only for fun in a group setting.

But I was playing a short while ago (for comps, sorta). Anyway, I got dealt pocket kings or queens or some such nonsense. The two ploppies to my left saw my cards and were like, "Oh yeah, that's a good one, raise 4x!" So I'm like OK duh and raise 4x. I'm hanging back, just chilling, and out on the flop and turn or w/e come two more queens or kings, resulting in me getting a four of a kind. I had no idea. The two ploppies (well, one was completely sh*tfaced drunk, lol) were like "Omg yes that's awesome! Wow!!!" and I'm all like, thinking they hit a full house or a straight or something, totally forgetting what cards I had. I didn't realize it until after the dealer flipped over my cards and told me I had a four of a kind. Oh ok -- that's why these two people to my left were all excited. It was kinda cool, too, since I was actually playing a decent amount and not betting the $5 or $10 min.

Quote: Sandybestdog

Not sure what's with your attitude. Just giving my opinion. Probably poker is not the game for me. That's fine. I was just using that as an example. There was 20 minutes left in the high hand promotion. It was just a suggestion. As I recall, that was actually one of my few winning sessions. I'm merely saying that I don't like all the raising and such preflop and how it doesn't make sense to me. You'll especially find it common in the cheap tournaments. 5 hands in and people are going all in preflop. How is that making the game complex like you say? That sounds like straight up gambling to me.

Case in point, I was playing a tournament a few weeks ago. I was big blind which was $400. I get pocket aces. This guy was playing loose and aggressive all night. Like raising to $10k all the time. Really annoying. Just like I expected, he raised preflop and it was his biggest yet, about $15k chips. I think this is exactly what I want. I had $18k left and went all in. Another guy calls as well. Sure enough big bettor has kings. They run out the cards and I think I held up when I see the other guy had Queen/8 and two 8's are on the board. Please tell me how that is the poker you describe and not the lottery? Who calls 45 big blinds with Queen/8 against 2 others? That's not poker. If a king had come, then fine. Big deal it's a $40 tournament, everybody has their bad beat stories. But I would prefer to be outplayed, not out lucked.

I don't know much about tournament poker play....but I know in blackjack tournaments you typically either want to min-bet and hope the others all bust out, or max-bet and hope to win big. If I had to guess about poker tournaments, I'd think that a large part of it is trying to either win big or go home. Part of the skill is knowing how to play in different situations. You'd probably go all-in a lot more often in tournament play than you would in a cash game.

Quote: Sandybestdog

Probably poker is not the game for me. That's fine.

Right, I agree that it's fine. There are many casino games which are not for me as well!

Quote: Sandybestdog

I'm merely saying that I don't like all the raising and such preflop and how it doesn't make sense to me. You'll especially find it common in the cheap tournaments. 5 hands in and people are going all in preflop. How is that making the game complex like you say? That sounds like straight up gambling to me.

In cheap tournaments, your stack will often get short in relation to the blinds quickly, meaning that if you're going to play the hand, you might as well go all in. Of course in a cheap tournament some folks are there just to take big swings and big gambles, and if they are moving in within the first few hands, they're probably just gamblers trying to quickly build a stack or go home.

I'm not saying everyone who plays the game plays it well. Most players don't, which is why most players lose. But even many bad players are trying to play well. The reason they are bad is that playing well is HARD. There are so many factors to think about and so many decisions to make. Most hands don't involve anyone going all in, but even if they do, that still gives you a lot of decisions to make, and opportunity to profit.

Quote: Sandybestdog

Case in point, I was playing a tournament a few weeks ago. I was big blind which was $400. I get pocket aces. ... I had $18k left and went all in. Another guy calls as well. Sure enough big bettor has kings. They run out the cards and I think I held up when I see the other guy had Queen/8 and two 8's are on the board. Please tell me how that is the poker you describe and not the lottery? ... I would prefer to be outplayed, not out lucked.

You did great. You got all your money in as a significant favorite. That's all you can do in that spot. By the way, how mad was the guy with KK to have run into AA? :-)

Luck is an inherent part of poker. The best starting hand doesn't always win, nor does the best player. That's part of what keeps it interesting, and what keeps bad players interested, because in the short term anyone can win, same as roulette or keno or whatever. It's still gambling! It's just gambling with a lot of strategic skill involved.

Bad beats will happen, but in the long term, the better player will make better decisions. He will understand how his own hand compares to the likely hands for his opponents, and what that should mean for his actions. He will be putting money into the pot with an edge, and over time, that edge will result in profit.

Actually, better players receive more bad beats than bad players, because the better player is more likely to be a favorite when all the money goes in. You can only be the victim of a bad beat when you made a good bet.

Skillful poker play typically involves a lot of raising. So if you don't like that, it makes sense to me you'd dislike the game in general.

Quote: RS

If I had to guess about poker tournaments, I'd think that a large part of it is trying to either win big or go home. Part of the skill is knowing how to play in different situations. You'd probably go all-in a lot more often in tournament play than you would in a cash game.

Correct. One of the reasons you go all-in a lot more in tournaments is that the blinds increase over time, so players become short-stacked, meaning you get all-in more quickly. Also, since you can't take your chips and cash them out, you will have to be all-in at some point unless you manage to win the tournament without ever going all-in. Whereas I have had many cash game sessions where I never had my whole stack at risk.

Quote: teddys

You play UTH for a living? I'm surprised. Not saying it isn't possible. I'm curious if you'd like to reveal more information. (I'm guessing not...)

As for me, I have gotten three straight flushes. More quads than I can count. Never received nor seen a royal while I was playing.

Join the club. I played UTH for 8 or 10 years (could not remember exactly), several hours a day and many days a month. As a matter of fact, it's the only game I play now. I ONLY saw TWO royal flushes on my table in these years. One gigantic casino exec told me the hold in his casino is 32%. I play it for fun, a cheap entertainment when playing right.

A female I know thinks she plays it for a living. Of course in less than 2 years she's hit 4 royals, numerous straight flushes, even flopped a SF for 10% of the progressive which netted her $12K, uncountable number of quads, etc...

This past winter she was 1 of 10 in an hourly drawing, won that to become 1 of 3 in the nightly drawing to win an SUV. Of course she wins.... Takes the $25K cash instead of $40K dealer credit. Is back on the UTH table as soon as the paperwork is finished.

Run good at UTH, run good at casino promos and you too could delude yourself into thinking you're an UTH pro. She even sits on the wrong side of the table to take advantage of the few flashers we have.

Quote: BTLWI

Run good at UTH, run good at casino promos and you too could delude yourself into thinking you're an UTH pro. She even sits on the wrong side of the table to take advantage of the few flashers we have.

Is there a "right" side for UTH?

Quote: JohnnyComet

Is there a "right" side for UTH?

Things like this unfortunately don't need answered on the public part of the forum... If you guys want to further chat about it plz PM.

Censorship!

Quote: JohnnyComet

Is there a "right" side for UTH?

there's a Darkside - they get to short-pay you on your winning bets. You may not join them, though.