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rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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July 9th, 2010 at 10:43:25 AM permalink
Say a player in Pai Gow Poker is dealt the following hand: Jh Qh Kh Ah Qs Ks Joker. How should the hand be set?

I've been fortunate enough to see this hand dealt twice so far this year (and twice in my life...and I'm not expecting to see it again), and I don't think either recipient set it right...
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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July 9th, 2010 at 11:09:45 AM permalink
I admit that when holding the cards, it's hard to ignore the royal, but I voted for JQQKK / A*.

Without doing the math...

While the Royal is a unbeatable, KQ is easily beat, making a push likely. More likely than not, this will win, but only marginally so.

The AA is almost unbeatable, and the two pair is particularly strong. This makes a loss extremely unlikely, and even a push not very likely. This is far more likely to win. Not guaranteed, but close.
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
thegov2k2
thegov2k2
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July 9th, 2010 at 12:33:15 PM permalink
I'd definitely set it two pair with aces up front. The likelihood of the dealer having 2 more aces AND a hand where they go in the low hand are almost nil. That hand is much more likely to win than the royal with KQ.
Doc
Doc
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July 9th, 2010 at 12:40:01 PM permalink
Today I posted a comment in a poker-related thread, even though I admitted I am not a poker player. Well, I am definitely not a Pai Gow Poker player -- never even tried the game. But it seems to me that *QQJA/KK or *KKJA/QQ would perhaps be a better hand than JQQKK/A*. Three of a kind should be better than two pair, and the KK or QQ isn't much lower than the A*. Or does Pai Gow have rules that I am overlooking?

I don't understand this game well enough to actually cast a vote.
Wizard
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Wizard
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July 9th, 2010 at 1:04:17 PM permalink
This kind of question is what my pai gow poker appendix 1 is for. Add up the two power ratings (PR) for each viable way to play the hand, and go with the greater sum. The expected value (EV) is roughly 0.975×(total PR)-1. The following table is based on not banking. The EV of playing the AA/two pair is much higher.

Low hand High hand Low PR High PR Total PR EV
KQ Royal flush 0.452967 0.999507 1.452474 0.416162
AA KKQQJ 0.989071 0.821870 1.810941 0.765667
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Doc
Doc
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July 9th, 2010 at 1:59:06 PM permalink
Repeating my comment that I don't understand this game, I get that KK/QQQ gives Total PR=0.978758+0.880168=1.858926 (EV=0.81245); i.e., higher than either of the two suggested splits. Does making the hand with the joker change something?
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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July 9th, 2010 at 2:01:21 PM permalink
Quote: Doc

Repeating my comment that I don't understand this game, I get that KK/QQQ gives Total PR=0.978758+0.880168=1.858926; i.e., higher than either of the two suggested splits. Does making the hand with the joker change something?



The joker is only partly wild. It can complete a straight or flush, otherwise it's an ace.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
Doc
Doc
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July 9th, 2010 at 2:31:29 PM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

The joker is only partly wild. It can complete a straight or flush, otherwise it's an ace.

Thanks! If I had good sense and good manners, I would stay out of a conversation where I don't know what I am talking about. (At least I admitted up front that I don't understand the game.)
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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July 9th, 2010 at 4:28:18 PM permalink
Wait a sec...

"Royal Flush + Royal Match in Pai Gow Poker"

I never play the silly side bets, but does the Royal Match change things? Or is that based upon the 7 original cards, and not how they are set?
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
PapaChubby
PapaChubby
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July 9th, 2010 at 6:03:42 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Wait a sec...

"Royal Flush + Royal Match in Pai Gow Poker"

I never play the silly side bets, but does the Royal Match change things? Or is that based upon the 7 original cards, and not how they are set?



I once played a Pai Gow game with a side bet that was based on the way you set your five card hand. Under these circumstances it would probably make sense to play the royal.

But the most common "Fortune" side bet is based on your 7 cards, regardless of how you set them. You'd get credit for the royal even if you play two pair + pair.

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