So if the following is true:

Bet 1 - 48.93% hit frequency

Bet 2 - 24.79% hit frequency

Bet 3 - 19.72% hit frequency

Is there an answer to this with just this limited information??

ZCore13

How is it possible for some people to win bet 3 but not 1 or 2, and some people to win bet 1 but not 2 or 3?

Are these two groups of people involved in two entirely different bets?

Is it possible to win more than one bet at a time?

If the three bets are entirely different things - i.e. there is no chance to win two or three bets at the same time - then the probability of winning "something" is the sum of the three, or 93.44%.

The easiest way to explain it: suppose you're playing a 4-digit daily lottery, where you choose one of the 10,000 numbers from 0000 to 9999.

"Bet 1" wins if the winning number is anywhere from 0001 to 4893 - a 48.93% chance.

"Bet 2" wins if the winning number is anywhere from 4894 to 7372 - a 24.79% chance.

"Bet 3" wins if the winning number is anywhere from 7393 to 9344 - a 19.72% chance.

You win one of the three bets if the number is anywhere from 0001 to 9344 - a 93.44% chance.

Your question about winning "at least something" reminds me of a mass mailing scam that I haven't seen in a while, where you are guaranteed one of four prizes - usually something like a new car, $5000 cash, a trip to somewhere in Europe, and a $250 gift certificate which turns out to be good only on cheap knockoff luggage which you can probably find for $10 if you look hard enough, but the scam lists as "normally $400, but it's only $150 after you apply your gift certificate".

One company figured that everybody got wise to this, so they put a spin on it, and the postcards started saying that you won TWO prizes from the list.

ZCore13

If your case I'm guessing it could be Bet 1 is same colour, Bet 2 is same suit, Bet 3 (not sure as 1/5th!).

or (I haven't done the maths but think Three-Card poker, winner takes all)

Bet 1 - suppose you were playing a simple game where the dealer has a slight advantage and wins if you beat the dealer (assuming there is a tie break mechanism or low chance of a tie).

Bet 2 is your first card matches the dealer's upcard (or something similar such as three cards the same colour where p~=1/4).

Bet 3 is (no idea) but might be pair plus like concept.

This is why people like 3-card - although the pair-plus has a relation to the basic game, the prime (colours match) doesn't (except flush=colours match).

Quote:Zcore13Yeah, I didn't think just the hit frequencies were enough. Players can win any combination of the three bets. None, one of any of them, two out of three or all. The three bets are independent of each other, but all three are mandatory.

Actually, if they are independent, then you can.

Bet 1 has a 51.07% chance of losing

Bet 2 has a 75.21% chance of losing

Bet 3 has a 80.28% chance of losing

If they are independent, then the chance of all three losing is 0.5107 x 0.7521 x 0.8028 = about 0.3084, or 30.84% and the chance of winning at least one of them is 100% - 30.84% = 69.16%

Quote:ThatDonGuyActually, if they are independent, then you can.

Bet 1 has a 51.07% chance of losing

Bet 2 has a 75.21% chance of losing

Bet 3 has a 80.28% chance of losing

If they are independent, then the chance of all three losing is 0.5107 x 0.7521 x 0.8028 = about 0.3084, or 30.84% and the chance of winning at least one of them is 100% - 30.84% = 69.16%

Well then maybe the guy was right. He said 70% chance of winning at least one.

ZCore13

Maybe that is OK as regular players expect to lose, but I would be turned off from a game I never felt I could win at, net. In fact I have started to avoid UTH and play more BJ just based on my recent negative volatility at UTH.....I just can't seem to get up at that game anymore, but BJ has been delivering some winning sessions.

Quote:ParadigmZ, do you think from a player's perspective, winning something, but still net losing on a hand is a good design feature?

Roulette has worked this way for hundreds of years...

Quote:MathExtremistRoulette has worked this way for hundreds of years...

Yup. People spread $40 around the board

and win $25 and act like they've

accomplished something.