f2d
f2d
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Joined: May 25, 2010
July 5th, 2010 at 11:44:30 PM permalink
I'm looking at this:

https://wizardofodds.com/roulette

And it says this:

Best in California: It is my understanding that the only single-zero roulette in California is at the Barona casino, with a house edge of 2.78%.

I just ran a simulation for a martingale (someone wants to try martingaling and I said I'd take that action so I wrote a simulation to figure the odds and how long it'd take to break him), and im coming up w/ an edge of a little over 2.7% on my simulation... and 1 / 37 = 2.7027%

What am I missing here?

Btw, the odds of doubling your money with a 1 - 512 spread martingale ($1023) is 27.1%. It takes an average of 1173 spins per decision and the average bet is $5.51. Pretty crappy odds, you'd be better off just betting it all on one spin (where you'd be 18 / 37 to double up).

Edit: oh, the 72.9% of times you do lose it isn't a full loss though, average loss is 621, making the EV per decision -176
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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July 6th, 2010 at 12:53:43 AM permalink
Quote: f2d

I just ran a simulation for a martingale

what does that have to do with the calculation of the House Edge? Martingale used to run around exhorting his players to Double Up to Catch Up... he owned the casino and that is why he wanted them to do that. If you want to adopt his foolish betting strategy, go ahead but it has nothing to do with the House Edge calculation.
seattledice
seattledice
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July 6th, 2010 at 6:16:08 AM permalink
On that roulette page is a link to San Diego Roulette. At the top of that page is an explanation of how they run the game using cards combined with the ball and wheel to determine the number. I thought there must be some effect of ball and card selection that resulted in 2.78%, but I kept coming up with 2.703%. Finally I scrolled down and at the bottom of the San Diego page is a table showing the Barona HE = 2.703%. The 2.78% must be a typo.
f2d
f2d
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Joined: May 25, 2010
July 6th, 2010 at 11:57:18 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

what does that have to do with the calculation of the House Edge? Martingale used to run around exhorting his players to Double Up to Catch Up... he owned the casino and that is why he wanted them to do that. If you want to adopt his foolish betting strategy, go ahead but it has nothing to do with the House Edge calculation.



First off, I'm playing the house in this case. I know damn well it's a dumb strategy, I was merely trying to figure out my theoretical profit per hour to decide whether or not I want to take his action.

And to confirm my simulation was correct I divided the total amount lost by the player throughout the simulations by the total amount bet, which should equal the house edge. (what are the odds I pick the ONE wrong number on the roulette page to compare it to lol)

And house edge has everything to do with martingale -- you (theoretically) lose that amount on every bet you make in that "system"
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