Pai Gow poker - Fortune bonus bet / do you bet it?
"The only way you are gonna make money on this game is to bet the bonus."
The Wizard (and the math) tells me this is a sucker bet. I do see people hit it frequently (of course I never do). What's your opinion on this bet?
Quote: JeffRWhen I play, I rarely play this bet. If I do, it's only on a whim. Yet I'm constantly told the following:
"The only way you are gonna make money on this game is to bet the bonus."
The Wizard (and the math) tells me this is a sucker bet. I do see people hit it frequently (of course I never do). What's your opinion on this bet?
I don't make that bet and I've never encountered a situation where I would've won anything. I think bets like that are a casino's way of decimating your bankroll. But, it is gambling. You could always get lucky and hit the big jackpot. It really is a personal preference.
Quote: JeffR"The only way you are gonna make money on this game is to bet the bonus."
This statement refers to most games that pay more-or-less even money, where there are side bets.
The -ahem- truth in that statement comes from the side bet's potential large payout. Yeah, if you hit one of the higher payouts, you're a happy camper and have made the money they're talking about. But it comes at the cost of a high house edge.
But it is also false. You can make money just playing the basic game. With a good string of luck, and pressing your bets, you can do quite well without playing the side bet.
Quote: Wulfgar1224I don't make that bet and I've never encountered a situation where I would've won anything. I think bets like that are a casino's way of decimating your bankroll. But, it is gambling. You could always get lucky and hit the big jackpot. It really is a personal preference.
Never? Anything? The Fortune bet pays 2:1 on a 5 card straight. How many hands of PGP have you played that you've never had a 5 card straight in a 7 card hand that includes wilds?
If I find myself betting $25 or less per hand, I will most likely not be playing the side bet. I'm ok throwing away money on a side bet as long as it's a very manageable amount, betting $25 or more on the fortune is a very quick way to ruin.
However, if you're a grinder who is trying to reduce the house edge as much as possible, paying the Fortune side bet is a large leak in your game. I don't usually play it - but everyone at the table will tell me that "you should have made the fortune bet" whenever I do hit a big hand. I do tend to play the fortune bet when the pit boss is watching, for camouflage and better comps.
It doesnt follow and its a value judgment. Most people thinking of none other than +ev dont want to play x either. Or, if a bet that only hit 1 in a 1000 hits but paid 1005:1 were available, I probably wouldn't play that either. And even some high house edge bets lose less in absolute terms because you can bet $1 on the fortune and usually $15-25 minimum on the game. Other people want more than a pat on the back when they get a royal, or want the thrill of having something more than even money accessible next hand.
You need to figure out why you are gambling, what you want out of it, what risk you can tolerate, how often you go (if you gamble once a year you should pay little attention to the detailed math of such things) and dont let statements of mathematical fact become value judgments.
I do get a charge from the side bet potential before looking at the hands, no question. Also, playing 2 hands, I see both the Joker and the fortune bet twice as often, so they're that much more fun with more frequent hits. I've played PGP a couple times where the fortune was not available, and did not enjoy the game nearly as much, so I tend to play something else unless the fortune is available. I also am not fond of the Dragon hand in lieu of a second hand, because the fortune bet is not available on the Dragon.
The very best odds? No. The best entertainment in the casino IMO? Pretty much.
Then in January I was at NYNY and hit the Royal Flush + Royal match. Wasn't playing. Didn't really bother me but everyone else at the table's heads exploded.
Since then I just play $1 on it to keep people off my back about it.
Quote: DeucekiesSome places in Washington state will waive the 5% commission if you put $5 or more on the Fortune bonus. At some point, the $5 bonus becomes a better option than paying the commission on a win.
The 5% Rake works out to be a bit more than 1.5% of all the money you bet. The Fortune Bet typically has a house edge of ...what...7%? So, I would certainly play $5 on the fortune bet under these circumstances if I was betting $25 or more on the PGP
If there are more players, you are better off making the fortune side bet with a shrinking main bet as the number of players goes up, down to $4.98 if there are 7 players. (I'm assuming that the 2nd "6" players row on the chart should really be 7)
Quote: Dalex64$27.36. Answered in https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/159/
If there are more players, you are better off making the fortune side bet with a shrinking main bet as the number of players goes up, down to $4.98 if there are 7 players. (I'm assuming that the 2nd "6" players row on the chart should really be 7)
I'm sure those calcs are correct, but let me point out that the Nevada-style game, i.e., with a dealer, never has 7 players. There are not enough cards in the 53-card deck for 7 players and a dealer. PGP maxes out at 6 players. I'm not sure what that last entry in the chart on that website means: perhaps a rare oversight by the Wiz?
Anyway, I've never seen PGP offered for less than $10, and casinos usually offer $25 min tables -so playing the fortune bet in Wash State is probably an automatic no-brainer under most circumstances.
Quote: gordonm888Quote: Dalex64$27.36. Answered in https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/159/
If there are more players, you are better off making the fortune side bet with a shrinking main bet as the number of players goes up, down to $4.98 if there are 7 players. (I'm assuming that the 2nd "6" players row on the chart should really be 7)
I'm sure those calcs are correct, but let me point out that the Nevada-style game, i.e., with a dealer, never has 7 players. There are not enough cards in the 53-card deck for 7 players and a dealer. PGP maxes out at 6 players. I'm not sure what that last entry in the chart on that website means: perhaps a rare oversight by the Wiz?
Anyway, I've never seen PGP offered for less than $10, and casinos usually offer $25 min tables -so playing the fortune bet in Wash State is probably an automatic no-brainer under most circumstances.
$5 min is common at the cardrooms I've been to. $10 at the tribals.
Quote: gordonm888I'm sure those calcs are correct, but let me point out that the Nevada-style game, i.e., with a dealer, never has 7 players. There are not enough cards in the 53-card deck for 7 players and a dealer. PGP maxes out at 6 players. I'm not sure what that last entry in the chart on that website means: perhaps a rare oversight by the Wiz?
Good point. Somehow I doubt the dealer is making the fortune sidebet.
I played PGP somewhere downtown for $10. Wins were $9.50.
Quote: miranduhx3The casino I work at in Iowa waives commission with a $5 fortune bet. It makes it a lot easier for the dealers so a lot of them don't even understand how to pay a bet with 5% commission. As a player, even if I had to pay commission, I would more than likely play $5 on the fortune bonus anyway, if just for fear of missing out on a big hand.
miranduhx3,
Welcome to the forum, and thanks for the comment! I agree, and I'd like to see more houses waive commish with the Fortune bet.
Quote: SanPurdueI will have to confirm, but I believe the odds of getting a straight in Pai Gow Poker is one every 12 hands, so getting paid 2 to 1 keeps me away from playing the fortune bonus and even the progressive bet. But, I do get that many people play one or both. I just choose not to play either one, unless I am down to my last set of bets and I have the extra $5-6 to throw on one or both. If the Fortune Bonus had better odds, I would play.
I believe the frequency of straights in a 7-card PGP hand is 8.0% - including straights in hands where there is also a 2 pair, 3 pair, or 3 of a kind. So, yes, that's about one in every 12.5 hands.
Edit: Just noticed that the Wiz has posted a PGP straight probability of 7.158% relevant to the Fortune Bonus payoff calculations but that probability does not include straights in hands with Three-of-a-kind, because 3-of-a-kind is higher on the Fortune Pay Table (usually paying 3 to 1.) That may (or may not) explain the difference between his number and mine. 7 card hands can get quite complex -a hand with a straight may also have a flush and sometimes even a straight flush, or alternately, it may also have a four-of-a-kind - or a full house! A lot of care is needed to calculate the Fortune payoffs correctly!
Personally, if I had been on the table with you, I would have kept my mouth shut and not griped. The envy payout for that hand is fairly high, so I would have still gotten a nice chunk of change, irregardless of your bet/lack of on the fortune bet.Quote: ams288I never played it. Knew it was a sucker bet. Would roll my eyes when people told me that's where the money is at.
Then in January I was at NYNY and hit the Royal Flush + Royal match. Wasn't playing. Didn't really bother me but everyone else at the table's heads exploded.
Which casino is it in Iowa that doesn't charge commission?
Quote: PGBusterPersonally, if I had been on the table with you, I would have kept my mouth shut and not griped. The envy payout for that hand is fairly high, so I would have still gotten a nice chunk of change, irregardless of your bet/lack of on the fortune bet.
Which casino is it in Iowa that doesn't charge commission?
Don't know if this is where she works (or whether she even wants to say where she works), but it's in Burlington, IA and advertising no commission on PGP with a $5 Fortune bet.
Quote: PGBusterThe envy payout for that hand is fairly high, so I would have still gotten a nice chunk of change, irregardless of your bet/lack of on the fortune bet.
I had the impression that if a player placed at least $5 on the Fortune bonus and hit a qualifying hand, the other players who also made at least a $5 Fortune bet would get the Envy bonus. Is it actually that any player making at least a $5 Fortune bet gets paid the Envy bonus if any other player makes a qualifying hand, regardless of whether or not that player made the Fortune bet?
I learned how to play PGP just a week ago and don't like playing the side bets (particularly after reading Wizard's PGP Side Bets odds.) I consistently watch other player's BR quickly diminish by making all the side bets, often quite heavily.
My last session was at a table with Emperor's Challenge, Jackpot, and Insurance. However, the pay tables were different. I believe the lowest payout on the Jackpot was 4:1 for a full house.
I began the session with a stack of ten $1 chips next to my BR and decided to play $1 on Insurance for as long as that stack lasted. I think I got Q- and A-high pai gows twice each, so I probably made the Insurance bet for about 30 hands.
I didn't play Emperor's Challenge but I did put $1 on Jackpot. When I hadn't even made the minimum hand of a full house after two hours, I quit playing the Jackpot.
My preferred method of a "side bet" so to speak is banking with other players at the table.
Quote: BlueEagleI had the impression that if a player placed at least $5 on the Fortune bonus and hit a qualifying hand, the other players who also made at least a $5 Fortune bet would get the Envy bonus. Is it actually that any player making at least a $5 Fortune bet gets paid the Envy bonus if any other player makes a qualifying hand, regardless of whether or not that player made the Fortune bet?
I learned how to play PGP just a week ago and don't like playing the side bets (particularly after reading Wizard's PGP Side Bets odds.) I consistently watch other player's BR quickly diminish by making all the side bets, often quite heavily.
My last session was at a table with Emperor's Challenge, Jackpot, and Insurance. However, the pay tables were different. I believe the lowest payout on the Jackpot was 4:1 for a full house.
I began the session with a stack of ten $1 chips next to my BR and decided to play $1 on Insurance for as long as that stack lasted. I think I got Q- and A-high pai gows twice each, so I probably made the Insurance bet for about 30 hands.
I didn't play Emperor's Challenge but I did put $1 on Jackpot. When I hadn't even made the minimum hand of a full house after two hours, I quit playing the Jackpot.
My preferred method of a "side bet" so to speak is banking with other players at the table.
The envy kicks in when a player makes a bet of minimum $5 on the fortune most everywhere I've played (lesser fortune bets don't qualify for envy). The player will NOT get paid an envy bonus on the hand that wins an envy pay if it's his/her own hand, or if it's in the dealer's hand. The player will get paid the envy amount on another player's hand that qualifies, including their non-bonus hand if they're playing 2. The player who gets a bonus hand does not need to be playing the fortune bonus for the other players to get the envy payout. If the hand is on the table, it will get acknowledged and envy qualifiers will get paid.
