Tomspur
Tomspur
Joined: Jul 12, 2013
  • Threads: 28
  • Posts: 2019
May 7th, 2014 at 2:00:05 AM permalink
I have been presented with an interesting theory.

Let me start by asking a simple question before we get into the nitty gritty.

Do you think an individual or a team can beat a baccarat game by exploiting their rolling chip policy?

Let's say the casino gives back 1.6% commission on all rolling chips bought at the cage for the entire trip.

If they follow specific betting patterns (we can get into this later) and the casino is willing to raise their maximums so a higher spread is possible, do you think there is any way to beat the game of baccarat?

Thanks
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
  • Threads: 265
  • Posts: 14484
May 7th, 2014 at 5:09:54 AM permalink
What is a rolling chip? What is a rolling chip policy?
Tomspur
Tomspur
Joined: Jul 12, 2013
  • Threads: 28
  • Posts: 2019
May 7th, 2014 at 5:50:41 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

What is a rolling chip? What is a rolling chip policy?



Sorry, I thought perhaps you guys would know.

Here is the rundown.

Player "non negotiable chips" from the cage and takes it to a baccarat game. The player makes bets. If he wins, he gets paid with live money. If he loses, the chips get taken as per normal.

When he runs out of non negs, he takes his live chips and goes to the cage to buy more non negs. At the end of his session, the casino comps him an amount on all the non negs he has purchased at the cage. Usually between 1.1 and 1.8%.

The players get the commission in place of any all all other comps.

Hope this makes sense?
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
teliot
teliot
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
  • Threads: 42
  • Posts: 2288
May 7th, 2014 at 6:30:27 AM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

I have been presented with an interesting theory.

Let me start by asking a simple question before we get into the nitty gritty.

Do you think an individual or a team can beat a baccarat game by exploiting their rolling chip policy?

Let's say the casino gives back 1.6% commission on all rolling chips bought at the cage for the entire trip.

If they follow specific betting patterns (we can get into this later) and the casino is willing to raise their maximums so a higher spread is possible, do you think there is any way to beat the game of baccarat?

Thanks

Rolling chips amount to a cash rebate on theoretical win, therefore can't be beat unless the rebate exceeds the theoretical per dead chip. A 1.6% rebate is very large, usually reserved for the highest of high rollers. I've seen 1.6% once, never 1.8%.

Here are some stats for a 1.6% rebate:

Banker:
H/A per bet after rebate = 0.344%
N_0 (dead chips) = 32448
N_0 (actual hands)= 72714

Player:
H/A per bet after rebate = 0.501%.
N_0 (dead chips) = 16508
N_0 (actual hands) = 35997

N_0 is the number of hands to have roughly an 84% chance of being ahead of the player.

In other words, the "Long Run" is really long with this level of rebate, so you should have no expectation of beating any given player in a reasonable period of play.
Poetry website: www.totallydisconnected.com
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
  • Threads: 265
  • Posts: 14484
May 7th, 2014 at 6:30:30 AM permalink
Nothing involving mathematics ever makes sense to me.

Non cashable chips ... I guess you have to be a high roller to qualify.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 5761
May 7th, 2014 at 11:18:18 AM permalink
Quote: teliot

Rolling chips amount to a cash rebate on theoretical win



I don't think that that's correct (at least not if a rolling chip is as Tomspur described it)

What he described is a rebate on all losing bets (with the condition that you never leave directly after a win), so frequency of winning bets is important.

Eg, consider a game of singe-zero roulette, where you can use these rolling chips.

Say player 1 bets red all the time, and player 2 bets on 13 all the time. Both flat-bet the same amount B. Both get fraction R of their non-neg chips rebated to them.

Player 1 will win 18 times and lose 19 times out of every 37. His rebate is 19 * R * B for every 37 spins.
Player 2 will win 1 bet and lose 36 bets out of every 37. His rebate is 36 * R * B for every 37 spins.

Both have the same theoretical (losing 1 bet per 37 spins). But Player 2's rebate is almost double player 1's.

The key here is that you bet through the same non-neg chips after you win, but you only get the rebate on purchases. (ie, if you win 5 times and lose once, you only get rebated on one bet even though you made 6 bets)

Am I missing something here? Am I misunderstanding the definition of a rolling chip?
pokerface
pokerface
Joined: May 9, 2010
  • Threads: 12
  • Posts: 514
May 7th, 2014 at 12:05:57 PM permalink
Quote: Tomspur



Hope this makes sense?



not at all.
completely lost
winning streaks come and go, losing streak never ends.
teliot
teliot
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
  • Threads: 42
  • Posts: 2288
May 7th, 2014 at 2:03:25 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Am I missing something here? Am I misunderstanding the definition of a rolling chip?

I don't know, but that doesn't matter. Each rolling chip has an expected number of uses before it is lost. All calculations of t-Win are based on that. I have never heard of rolling chips on roulette.

I have tried to find an analysis of rolling chips for baccarat online, but have not been able to find anything (oops, Mike's stuff, see below -- I think I knew that). I did it from scratch a few months back and the numbers given above are the results of those calculations.

Again, just to stress the point, rolling chip programs are for baccarat.
Poetry website: www.totallydisconnected.com
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1403
  • Posts: 23731
May 7th, 2014 at 2:05:22 PM permalink
Please read this page: Dead Chip Programs in Macau.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 5761
May 7th, 2014 at 2:06:56 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

I don't know, but that doesn't matter. Each rolling chip has an expected number of uses before it is lost. All calculations of t-Win are based on that. I have not heard of rolling chips on roulette, for baccarat their value is well known. Hence Tomspur's question.



But my point is that it is not a straight rebate on expected loss (expected win from your point of view)

Maybe I misunderstood what you meant in the part that I quoted. I took it to mean that it was just a refund on house edge -- ie, a 1% rebate cuts the house edge by 1%. That would be true if the rebate was on action (which I've also heard of), but it's on chip sales, not action.

  • Jump to: