gjl1970
gjl1970
Joined: Mar 19, 2014
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March 19th, 2014 at 10:27:26 PM permalink
Hi, Playing single 0 online roulette, could anyone tell me the probability of single number not coming in for 300 spins and 379 spins within 1200 spins?

Thanks
Mission146
Mission146
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March 19th, 2014 at 10:52:58 PM permalink
Quote: gjl1970

Hi, Playing single 0 online roulette, could anyone tell me the probability of single number not coming in for 300 spins and 379 spins within 1200 spins?

Thanks



I don't understand what the last part means, but the probability of a single number not coming up for 300 consecutive spins is:***

(1 - 1/37)^300 = 0.00026929792 = 1/0.00026929792 = 1 in 3713.36

The probability of four consecutive Crap numbers being rolled in the game of Craps is:

(1/9)^4 = 0.00015241579 = 1/0.00015241579 = 1 in 6561

And that happened during the last Craps session I played, at one point.

Pretty darn unusual, but I'd say far from suspect in and of itself. Although, it is an on-line casino, so the probability of an event occurring if the programmer specifically designed the event to occur is 1.

***I'm thrown off by the "And," I don't get if you mean the number not coming for 300 spins and 379 spins within the same 1200 spins, or if you mean a number not coming for 300 spins as well as a number not coming in 379 out of an otherwise unrelated 1200 spins.
Vultures can't be choosers.
michael99000
michael99000
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March 19th, 2014 at 11:17:16 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I don't understand what the last part means, but the probability of a single number not coming up for 300 consecutive spins is:***

(1 - 1/37)^300 = 0.00026929792 = 1/0.00026929792 = 1 in 3713.36

The probability of four consecutive Crap numbers being rolled in the game of Craps is:

(1/9)^4 = 0.00015241579 = 1/0.00015241579 = 1 in 6561

And that happened during the last Craps session I played, at one point.

Pretty darn unusual, but I'd say far from suspect in and of itself. Although, it is an on-line casino, so the probability of an event occurring if the programmer specifically designed the event to occur is 1.

***I'm thrown off by the "And," I don't get if you mean the number not coming for 300 spins and 379 spins within the same 1200 spins, or if you mean a number not coming for 300 spins as well as a number not coming in 379 out of an otherwise unrelated 1200 spins.


I'm thinking he played a grand total of 1200 spins, and during that time the roulette number he was playing had two separate long streaks of not showing up, one being 300 spins, the other being 379 spins.
So there's a way to calculate the odds of a streak of 300 occurring, and theres a way to calculate a streak of 379, but is there a way to calculate BOTH of those streaks happening within 1200 spins.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff 
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March 19th, 2014 at 11:29:13 PM permalink
Quote: michael99000


I'm thinking he played a grand total of 1200 spins, and during that time the roulette number he was playing had two separate long streaks of not showing up, one being 300 spins, the other being 379 spins.
So there's a way to calculate the odds of a streak of 300 occurring, and theres a way to calculate a streak of 379, but is there a way to calculate BOTH of those streaks happening within 1200 spins.


That is what I think is meant too even though the number did indeed occur more often than twice in the 1200 spins, he is concerned with the lengthy non-event intervals.

The keyword may be online. He is concerned that results are skewed by his having bet on a certain number and wants to use streaks of non=occurence to prove bias.
gjl1970
gjl1970
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March 20th, 2014 at 12:57:36 PM permalink
That is right, I am trying to prove bias. In the space of 1200 spins, a single number did not come in for 300 spins, then 379 spins and then 283 spins.

Sorry for the confusion and thank you very much for all the feed back.
michael99000
michael99000
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March 20th, 2014 at 1:07:35 PM permalink
Quote: gjl1970

That is right, I am trying to prove bias. In the space of 1200 spins, a single number did not come in for 300 spins, then 379 spins and then 283 spins.

Sorry for the confusion and thank you very much for all the feed back.



How many total times did your number come up during the 1200 spins ?
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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March 20th, 2014 at 2:04:22 PM permalink
Quote: gjl1970

That is right, I am trying to prove bias. In the space of 1200 spins, a single number did not come in for 300 spins, then 379 spins and then 283 spins.

Sorry for the confusion and thank you very much for all the feed back.



Cherry-picking bad results does not prove bias (at least, not bias of the wheel) :)

In another thread IBYA said that a dealer once got blackjack against him on 7 consecutive hands. The probability against that is around 2 billion to 1. That does not prove bias or cheating.

If you want to prove bias, you need to start over. Design your experiment first, then collect data, and use all the data, whether it supports your hypothesis or not.
teliot
teliot
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March 20th, 2014 at 2:10:15 PM permalink
Quote: gjl1970

Hi, Playing single 0 online roulette, could anyone tell me the probability of single number not coming in for 300 spins and 379 spins within 1200 spins?

Thanks

Conduct an experiment. Wager on both red and black for 100 spins (table minimum) and count the number of times 0/00 appear. Report your results.
chrisr
chrisr
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March 20th, 2014 at 2:13:53 PM permalink
In 1200 spins it should be virtually impossible for three streaks higher than 282 of not seeing a particular number. I put it through a simulator and have 2 hits out of 7 million trials so far.
chrisr
chrisr
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March 20th, 2014 at 2:36:17 PM permalink
I'm not sure if i understood the setup correctly though. Were there three instances of non-hit streaks within the same 1200 spins?

Or were these 3 separate instances of long streaks within three different 1200 spin trials?

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