Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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April 1st, 2014 at 4:58:31 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
teliot
teliot
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April 1st, 2014 at 5:04:07 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I've seen $100k max bets at various Horseshoe casinos. Whether or not you can bet that much on the tie though, I don't know.

Yes, I know many casinos with $100k on the main bet. No problem with that. Higher than that, even. I'm looking for a casino that offers 9-to-1 on the Tie (not the main bet, the Tie), with Tie bets of $100k allowed, with the cut card at 14 cards (or less). Then I want 10 tables open with those limits. Then we need to find 10 guys, each with $200k, who are willing to learn end-plays on the Tie bet, and hang out at the table for days on end making no wagers, just so they can make a $100k bet on the Tie bet every so often.

By comparison, a guy who wants to beat the Pairs bet can walk into dozens of casinos world wide and make $20k wagers or higher, earning 0.47 units per 100 hands. This is what is really going on -- in the real world -- not this "Tie bet" fantasy.
End of the world website: www.climatecasino.net
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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April 1st, 2014 at 5:05:25 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

I understand that you are a mathematician and are willing to debate things on their academic merits. But, where is this casino?



Casinos that take $100k bets on baccarat? I have no idea -- I don't play those limits. I think that $50k is pretty common though (I don't play those limits either, but I'm pretty sure that I have seen it) I'm not interested in analyzing things based on a $1000 max bet though -- even I play higher than that, out of my own pocket (no sharing), with much slimmer edges, and I know that a lot of people are a hell of a lot better bankrolled than I am. Find me a good edge and getting the money will not be a problem.

The team doesn't all have to play at the same place, so it's not like you need 1 casino with 20 tables with favorable rules. My only point here is that, if the rules and large stakes are available at a few different places (possibly around the world) the argument about bankroll requirements go out the window. This is true for any game.

Meeting 20 people who you trust with that kind of money (and have the skill to pull it off) is probably the harder part.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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April 1st, 2014 at 6:59:23 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

if you lend me several million I'll make you far, far more than $43,200/day.



Please don't take this the wrong way, but it just struck me how absolutely ridiculous this statement is. $43,200/day is almost 16 million dollars per year.

Are you really claiming that you can get annual returns in the 400% range? If so, I would be interested in investing with you as soon as I close the deal on this bridge I am buying.
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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April 1st, 2014 at 11:20:20 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Please don't take this the wrong way, but it just struck me how absolutely ridiculous this statement is. $43,200/day is almost 16 million dollars per year.

Are you really claiming that you can get annual returns in the 400% range? If so, I would be interested in investing with you as soon as I close the deal on this bridge I am buying.


Ridiculous is a good word for it, actually. So is inconceivable. Both of those are what Wall Street thought for at least 6 months after the deal, but the numbers don't lie:

Daily Active Users: 1,716,000
Average Revenue Per Daily Active User: $0.42
Daily Revenue: $720K
Quarterly Revenue: $64.8M

Source: p. 26 of IGT's 10-Q dated 12/31/2013.

And yes, I'm claiming I can improve on what I did for DDC, but I wouldn't even need to in order to hit $16M/year. A hypothetical new social site with 200K DAU and $0.20 ARPDAU results in $40K/day revenues, and I can spin that up with a few million dollars.

Edit vis-a-vis team baccarat play, if you give me the same 20 guys with $200k bankroll each, and they can code, we're already halfway there.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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April 1st, 2014 at 11:47:10 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

And yes, I'm claiming I can improve on what I did for DDC, but I wouldn't even need to in order to hit $16M/year. A hypothetical new social site with 200K DAU and $0.20 ARPDAU results in $40K/day revenues, and I can spin that up with a few million dollars.



So, why aren't you doing it?
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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April 2nd, 2014 at 12:11:10 AM permalink
Stay tuned...
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
endermike
endermike
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April 2nd, 2014 at 5:08:43 AM permalink
Revenue or profit. I would assume that company has some overhead, some employees to pay, and some debt to service. Not to mention the possibility of investing in a company which fails. However these problems plague both endeavors.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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April 2nd, 2014 at 10:42:39 AM permalink
Quote: endermike

Revenue or profit. I would assume that company has some overhead, some employees to pay, and some debt to service. Not to mention the possibility of investing in a company which fails. However these problems plague both endeavors.



This discussion has gotten kind of stupid.

Right now that claim is that anyone who can make money as an AP should instead invest with MathExtremist for a guaranteed 400% return in a year. All we need is an infomercial and we will be good to go.
teliot
teliot
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April 2nd, 2014 at 11:16:37 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

This discussion has gotten kind of stupid.

At least, OT.

I am currently running a perfect play model of the baccarat Tie bet with various cut card placements, tie pays 9-to-1. I will give the DI along with various stats that help place the Tie bet in the context of other baccarat side bets that allow large wagers.

James Grosjean stated "I am quite confident in saying that I have written the last (competent) word on counting the Tie bet in baccarat." Perhaps by "last" he means chronologically, in which case, I intend to supersede his work.

Of course, by "last" he really means that no one will come to a more researched final conclusion about the vulnerability of Tie bet to advantage play than him. I do not expect to contradict him.

There is almost no 9-to-1 available for the Tie bet. I will post the 8-to-1 results in a follow-up post.
End of the world website: www.climatecasino.net

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