UTH question, odds to 4-bet?
The Wizard offers a comprehensive list of pre-flop 4-bet hands in UTH, and a list of probabilities explaining which hands are positive EV.
But what is the threshold that a hand must cross for a hand to be a good 4-bet?
Q7 is 52.4% to win against a blind hand, but it's not a 4-bet. Q8 is 54.2%
K4 is 52.97% to win. K5 is 53.93%
Is there a golden number that we're looking for? I'm assuming the percentage above 50% is to offset the Blind bet.
Quote: DeucekiesA question for the Wizard, or anyone else who knows.
The Wizard offers a comprehensive list of pre-flop 4-bet hands in UTH, and a list of probabilities explaining which hands are positive EV.
But what is the threshold that a hand must cross for a hand to be a good 4-bet?
Q7 is 52.4% to win against a blind hand, but it's not a 4-bet. Q8 is 54.2%
K4 is 52.97% to win. K5 is 53.93%
Is there a golden number that we're looking for? I'm assuming the percentage above 50% is to offset the Blind bet.
Just because something is a favorite, that doesn't mean it's a 4-bet. It may be that you get so much information from the flop, that being able to make a check/2x bet decision on the flop has higher EV than a 4x pre-flop.
So, even though a 4x bet is +EV, checking is +more EV (assuming that you play correctly on future rounds). So checking is the better play.
Quote: tringlomaneI don't think there is some "magic" heads-up poker equity threshold that dictates a 4X bet. This is because there are non even money payments for the blind bet for good hands. So for example, I would expect a suited hand needing a slightly lower heads up poker equity because a winning flush gets paid 3 to 2 on the blind bet.
No. The blind is a separate bet. It's like a side-bet (only forced). It does not change the strategy for the main hand.
If you did not have to make the blind bet your optimal strategy on the main bet would be identical (your edge would also be massive, incidentally)
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceNo. The blind is a separate bet. It's like a side-bet (only forced). It does not change the strategy for the main hand.
If you did not have to make the blind bet your optimal strategy on the main bet would be identical (your edge would also be massive, incidentally)
I'm pretty sure the game would have a different strategy if there were no blind bet. You would fold more hands because you don't have the extra bet that would lose by folding.
Quote: mipletI'm pretty sure the game would have a different strategy if there were no blind bet. You would fold more hands because you don't have the extra bet that would lose by folding.
If so, the strategy would only be very slightly different, and these situations would be exceedingly rare. How often do you throw away a made hand?
The only example that I can think of it the board being 4OAK with a small kicker, and you having small cards. Say, if the board is AAAA2 and you have 56 in your hand.
But, you are right, the strategy is not identical. I don't really think that this is relevant to the original question though.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceNo. The blind is a separate bet. It's like a side-bet (only forced). It does not change the strategy for the main hand.
If you did not have to make the blind bet your optimal strategy on the main bet would be identical (your edge would also be massive, incidentally)
Thinking about this some more. To determine your decision to either check or 4X the bet, you're right the blind bet doesn't matter. It gets paid off at increased odds always when you make a flush or better because like you say, you would only fold a bad hand with quads and low kicker on board and that happens very, very rarely.
Thanks for clarifying that.
J9o has a higher equity percentage than K2s in HU Hold'em, but it's checked in UTH.
J9o (check) 53.251%
K2s (raise 4X) 53.212%
I mainly point this out because OP wondered if there was a rule if you could just 4X all hands that had a high enough poker equity in Heads-Up Hold'em. But there is one anomaly, which is listed above.
Quote: tringlomaneThinking about this some more. To determine your decision to either check or 4X the bet, you're right the blind bet doesn't matter. It gets paid off at increased odds always when you make a flush or better because like you say, you would only fold a bad hand with quads and low kicker on board and that happens very, very rarely.
Thanks for clarifying that.
J9o has a higher equity percentage than K2s in HU Hold'em, but it's checked in UTH.
J9o (check) 53.251%
K2s (raise 4X) 53.212%
I mainly point this out because OP wondered if there was a rule if you could just 4X all hands that had a high enough poker equity in Heads-Up Hold'em. But there is one anomaly, which is listed above.
Yes, there is definitely no cutoff. In addition to the EV, you also have to ask how much the flop will clarify your position.
For a similar (but more extreme) situation, imagine a game where you get a 2-digit number, and the dealer gets a 2-digit number where each digit is chosen uniformly from [0, 9]. Suppose that you make a 1-unit ante, and you have the option of betting 4 units before seeing the first (most significant) digit of the dealer's number, or 2 units (or folding) after seeing the number. You win if you don't fold, and your number is higher than the dealer's (all bets pay 1:1)
Suppose you have the number 50. Now, betting 4x immediately is profitable -- you have 50 wins (dealer = 00 .. 49), 1 push, and 49 losses. Your hand is a favorite. In 100 bets, you win a total 4 units on the play bet and 1 unit on the ante, for a total profit of 5 units.
However, if you check and see the dealer's first card, and fold when it's 5 or above, and bet 2x when it's 4 or below is much, much more profitable. Now you have 50 two-unit wins, and no pushes or losses. In 100 hands, you have no profit on the ante (50 wins and 50 folds), but your profit on the play bet is now 100 units (since you have no losses). Your total profit goes from 5 units to 100 units!
(Exercise: What is the optimal strategy for this game? And how bad does the forced side-bet have to be in order to make the whole game -EV?)
Of course in hold'em the board will never clarify things THAT much, but the concept is the same -- making the choice later with more information may be worth the EV that you give up from making the bigger bet before you have that info, (The game that I described is basically the "1-card-poker" version of UTH)
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceIf so, the strategy would only be very slightly different, and these situations would be exceedingly rare. How often do you throw away a made hand?
How often do you raise 1x with 2nd or 3rd kicker to a paired board? Would that still be the proper play if folding cost 1 unit and not 2 units?
Quote: rdw4potusHow often do you raise 1x with 2nd or 3rd kicker to a paired board? Would that still be the proper play if folding cost 1 unit and not 2 units?
Oh, right. Sorry. I forgot that the blind bet pushed if you won the hand (I have not played UTH in a long time)
Edit: This still has nothing to do with whether or not to 4-bet, though.
Quote: rdw4potusHow often do you raise 1x with 2nd or 3rd kicker to a paired board? Would that still be the proper play if folding cost 1 unit and not 2 units?
Per Discount Gambling, you always call with 3rd kicker on a paired board, unless it's a scare board (Four of a suit, or four straight cards in a row). With a fold being worth -1 vs -12, the different cost of folding would lead to actually calling less, because there are lots 2nd and 3rd kicker situations (Possibly even 1st kicker) where -2 < EV < -1. With an EV of more than -2 and less than -1, a fold is the best play. This would eliminate a lot of River calls.
