How to not be noticed when using "Beyond Counting" methods.

Particularly ESing combined with a FLing dealer on a table game. I'm not going into further details. I found this completely on accident when spending time off the BJ tables to take away some heat. I'm considering abandoning counting BJ completely and just milking this joint for as long as I can. I'm not sure on the variance but have never had a negative swing so far.

My "strategy" is to sit down for 4 hours and walk away no matter where my chip stack stands. I sit down with the FLing dealer to start with and play the appropriate HC strategy all the while ESing the decks. Once she leaves I've ES'd the decks to a point that I can play with almost full advantage playing ES strategy for a few more hours.

Now here's the funny part, I've estimated my hourly income to be right under $175. So for 4 hours of play I should average $700/h. But...
The 4 times I've now done this I've walked away with >$700 on 3 occasions (5000 on my first time!) and just over $200 once (nasty variance that finally evened out).

It's a super small sample size I know, and I'm not trying to figure out the variance just yet, I have a replenishable BR and I'm not living off of this (hell I started AP/counting just for some side fun).

ANYWAYS. What I want to know is this:
How often should I play this game to successfully milk it for a long long time? Any "Beyond Counting" users out there that have some advise? My thoughts were to go only once a month, and extent my absence to two months if I ever hit a high variance run on one session that get's me anything >$1300.

Is this a good idea?

EDIT- NO I am not telling where it is. NO I am not saying what Table Game it is. A smart person can figure the game I guess but that's up to them I'm not answering any such questions.

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Quote: Ibeatyouraces

This is a skill you will have to learn on your own. Each location will have it's own tolerance levels so no one answer will work. You just have to test the boundaries of what you can get away with.

I'd rather not even get close to the boundaries so as to stay under the radar as long as possible. Thanks for the advise. I guess I'll stick to my plan and see how it goes.

The problem with finding the tolerance level is once you learn it, it's too late (edit..I didn't see your reply). You want to guesstimate the tolerance level and stay under it. Casinos will examine your play at different levels of winnings if you use a player card. For most casinos that would be 25k - 50K aggregate. The toilets will sweat smaller wins, the carpet joints will start looking at 100K. If you don't use a player card, which you shouldn't, the per session win varies casino to casino. In AC, for instance, you can easily win 1200 - 1500 without attracting any attention. 2K even flies in most places. In the midwest and the south, those numbers will even work but they don't get the foot traffic or size of action AC does so after a few different days of play they may start to remember you and eventually realize you win more than you lose. You would probably do best in these places keeping it to around 1K or so unless it's one of the bigger casinos in these areas. Weekends are usually times you can go a bit higher before pulling up because it's busier and there's more money in play so you will be less noticeable. If you have a great act you can win a lot more a lot longer before the inevitable heat sets in. You also can usually sense a change in the dealer when the heat starts to rise and most of the time they will just change their motion so you can't win anymore. As well as winning, getting smoked can bring attention. And it will happen. You buy in for $500, buy in for another $500, another, another, another and suddenly, you're in for $2500 and you're getting attention, winning or not. They have to track you at a certain amount and suddenly you're on their radar screen.

You should be able to play the game at least once a week. Twice even. Weekends are best. Just casually mention to another player some bs story that you own a business or something and times are very good. Make sure the dealer hears it. It's always nice for them to think you're just some well to do sucker. And make sure you can intelligently discuss whatever your claimed profession is. And don't overdo it. Just mention it once and make sure the dealer hears it then drop it.

Sound advice. Many thanks.

There is also an argument to hit the advantage hard, under the theory that you are not the only smart person in the joint. Eventually, the casino will plug the leak, train the dealer, and take safety measures against ES. I had an opportunity many years ago that lasted 2 days before the casino plugged it.

Use your judgment as to whether you should play it soft or hard, it depends on too many factors. I think once a month is way too soft.

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I would go much more than 1 time a month. Casino's are smart and they will see the errors of the dealers and it will get fixed. If you wait 4 weeks then it might be too late. If it were me I would go 1 or 2 times a week.

BTW what is ES and FL?

Thanks for the advice everyone. I'll risk a few extra visits and see if I start to get recognized. If so, take a break and come back with a longer stretch between visits.

This place is "out in the sticks" one could easily say and from my time counting there I doubt they have any squatting AP guys other than me. I could be wrong but I feel like being burned myself is more likely than the game being burned. It's been there for a long time.

They've been using the same type of cards for at least a few years according to a ploppy friend of mine who introduced me to the place the summer before last. As for the bad dealer, who knows how long that will last. When she's at the BJ tables everyone hates her for regularly making mistakes. It's more likely for her to get fired than corrected. Even without her the +EV is way higher than counting.

Quote: GWAE

BTW what is ES and FL?

ES = "Edge Sort" "FL" = "Front Loading" (a particular hole-card/next-card view).