KingofHarts
KingofHarts
Joined: Jun 8, 2013
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June 8th, 2013 at 5:42:37 PM permalink
I have an idea of how to at least minimize the pit falls of the Mandalay betting system and I'd like to get your opinion on it.

If I am to understand correctly, the pit falls of the Mandalay system are that you risk a great deal of money for a small reward and it requires a large bank roll to survive several consecutive loses. My solution is to use all three dozens or columns in roulette. You would place a minimum bet on one of the three dozens to start. If you win you repeat. If you lose, however, you double your bet on that dozen and then also bet the minimum on the other two dozens and play them independently. Always doubling after a lose and returning to the minimum after a win on each dozen independently.

This accomplishes two things:

1) Since you are playing the dozens with a 2:1 payout, instead of profiting only one unit after a win you would make your money back PLUS a profit equal to the last bet of the sequence. So in essence the longer you go without a win the more profitable an eventual win would be.

2) By playing all three dozens you are protecting yourself against a long sequence of consecutive losses on a specific dozen. If one isn't winning the other two are and will allow yourself to finance the dozen that has been loosing which will eventually profit even more as stated in 1).


I'm not saying it is a statistical garunteed profit, but I think it would take an EXTREME statistical oddity not to.

I would much appreciate any input no matter how critical.


Thanks!
EvenBob
EvenBob
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June 8th, 2013 at 5:49:55 PM permalink
A dozen can easily sleep for 15 spins or more, happens
all the time. You would reach the table limit very fast.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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June 8th, 2013 at 5:56:40 PM permalink
Quote: KingofHarts



I'm not saying it is a statistical garunteed profit, but I think it would take an EXTREME statistical oddity not to.

I would much appreciate any input no matter how critical.


Thanks!



I will say that it is NOT a statistical guaranteed profit. You are not doing anything that alters the house edge on any spin, you're just manipulating (increasing) the amount of money that you're exposing to the house edge.

Bob is right about what'll happen here - the first dozen will miss for so long that you'll hit the table max and be unable to make the next required bet. You'll have small wins on the others, but not enough to make up for the losses on the first dozen. Then, a 0 will come and you'll wind up in the fetal position crying on the casino floor.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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June 8th, 2013 at 6:39:06 PM permalink
Quote: KingofHarts

... By playing all three dozens you are protecting yourself against ...


Thou shalt not hedge thy bets... fancy hedges and simple hedges are each forbidden. You can get cute about the amounts and the timing but the whole idea is to either bet and take your chances or don't bet and leave the casino.

When you win a hedged bet... you have a high risk and a low return.
When you lose a hedged bet... you have a high risk and an even lower return.

Whats the allure? Certainty? Certainty of loss and certainty of a somewhat unusual but still common enough sequence wherein the player runs up against the Table Limit restrictions while trying to stick to the system of absurd bets that at best will only narrowly allow escape from ruin and more likely will guarantee the ultimate arrival of a gambler's ruin aided by table limits.
vendman1
vendman1
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June 8th, 2013 at 8:41:36 PM permalink
This theory completely ignores the 0 and 00. If either of them hit, you lose all your chips on the layout in your scenario. Nothing beats the 5.26% man.
KingofHarts
KingofHarts
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June 8th, 2013 at 9:48:59 PM permalink
I guess I don't understand this. If a green comes up in my scenario you just double your bet on all three dozens and you would profit even more when they do hit. Im looking at this as each dozen bet is independent. Roulette has a very low VI and a standard deviation of 3.48 on the dozens.

So heres my math on this and its been awhile since I took statistics so correct me if I am wrong...

With a $5 minimum bet and a $500 max you can lose 6 times doubling your bet each time before the max becomes an issue at $315 (5+10+20+40+80+160)=315 and then you can go to $500 and still make a profit of $685 on the 7th spin.
So 7 spins to get your dozen. If the probability of hitting your dozen is .31 and the standard deviation of a dozen is 3.48 than to find Z you would: (7-3.1)/3.49= 1.11. If I look at my Z table you get .8665.

So 86.65% of the time I will hit my dozen in 7 or less spins. Not to mention I could make a second $500 bet and if that won I would still break even. The Z value on 8 spins is .9192.

Where did I go wrong?
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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June 8th, 2013 at 10:06:07 PM permalink
Quote: KingofHarts

I guess I don't understand this. If a green comes up in my scenario you just double your bet on all three dozens and you would profit even more when they do hit.



I would say that it just makes you lose faster by pushing you closer to the limit. It's a hit against all 3 of your dozens bets. You should not want your bets to be high - it just means you're closer to trouble.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
EvenBob
EvenBob
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June 8th, 2013 at 10:17:01 PM permalink
Any possible combination of bets you or a computer can
come up with was already tried 150 years ago in Europe by
people way smarter than most of us. To say there is
nothing new in roulette is the understatement of a couple
centuries. This book on roulette was written over 100 years
ago and people are still talking about these systems today, and
they were old when the book was written.

http://www.archive.org/stream/montecarloanecdo00bethiala#page/n5/mode/2up
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
Venthus
Venthus
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June 8th, 2013 at 10:38:01 PM permalink
I'd say there's plenty new in roulette since then-- refinements to the wheel, etc. to decrease the possibility of bias, making it harder to get ahead...
KingofHarts
KingofHarts
Joined: Jun 8, 2013
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June 9th, 2013 at 1:13:50 PM permalink
I appreciate everyone's responses. I guess it's one of those things I'm gonna have to try and learn the hard way if it doesn't work

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