Transender46
Joined: Jan 2, 2010
• Posts: 19
June 4th, 2013 at 7:53:10 PM permalink
I'm a little confused by the Baccarat Calculator on your sister website Wizard of Odds. It shows a detailed breakdown of hand combinations based on different deck sizes. When I look at the probability of a Banker non-natural 7 against a player 0,1,2,3,4,5 or 6 - the total combined probability of these hands occurring is MUCH higher than the published probability of the Dragon 7 bet winning of approximately 2.2%.

What am I not understanding ? Is the Baccarat Calculator wrong?
sodawater
Joined: May 14, 2012
• Posts: 3310
June 4th, 2013 at 8:09:33 PM permalink
Because a banker 7 isn't a dragon hand unless it's a 3-card winning 7. two-card winning sevens don't count.
rdw4potus
Joined: Mar 11, 2010
• Posts: 6963
June 4th, 2013 at 9:00:13 PM permalink
Quote: Transender46

What am I not understanding ? Is the Baccarat Calculator wrong?

It's confusing. I wish that table had one more column. When you're looking at the Natural=no banker 7 wins in the table, which total about 7.6%, it seems like that would equal the dragon winners. But, that also includes hands with a 2 card banker's hand and a 3 card player's hand. And, as sodawater said, only 3 card banker 7s are dragon 7 winners.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
sodawater
Joined: May 14, 2012
• Posts: 3310
June 4th, 2013 at 9:10:38 PM permalink
in baccarat, natural just means a 2-card hand of 8 or 9. It doesn't mean a 2-card in general.
Transender46
Joined: Jan 2, 2010