rainman
rainman
Joined: Mar 28, 2012
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 1333
May 12th, 2013 at 10:25:14 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

I was trying to be nice, but basically yes, C and
D students. The Peter Principle applies in most
casino work.



I for one appreciate your efforts to be nice EB as I was a D student. :) I don't even possess A high school diploma or equivalent. I spent all my classroom time looking out the window day dreaming. In the 11th grade the principal told me I had after school clean up everyday for a month for all the skipped classes I had. I told him to go #$%...k himself and so ended my high school days. As I look back I was the poster child for young dumb and misguided. So all you kids out there stay in school or you will wind up having to do something crazy like trying to beat casinos out of their money. :)
GBV
GBV
Joined: Jun 12, 2012
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 110
May 13th, 2013 at 2:16:43 AM permalink
Quote: teliot

It's not missing, you just aren't privy to it. it is quite a common topic to discuss.



There is no conceivable reason to keep that information private, if in fact it exists. You just know that your figures would be torn apart if they were publicly available. It would become obvious you were trying to scare casinos to drum up trade-that's the basis of your income and you have no interest in telling the truth.

Quote: teliot


Debunking your baccarat advice for the tie bet was certainly my motivation for my article on the tie bet.



Why can't you do more semi-sharp analysis like that? It would make my job so much easier.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
  • Threads: 68
  • Posts: 11933
May 13th, 2013 at 6:42:03 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
  • Threads: 37
  • Posts: 3376
May 13th, 2013 at 10:06:20 AM permalink
Quote: GBV

Quote: teliot

It's not missing, you just aren't privy to it. it is quite a common topic to discuss.



There is no conceivable reason to keep that information private, if in fact it exists. You just know that your figures would be torn apart if they were publicly available. It would become obvious you were trying to scare casinos to drum up trade-that's the basis of your income and you have no interest in telling the truth.

Quote: teliot


Debunking your baccarat advice for the tie bet was certainly my motivation for my article on the tie bet.



Why can't you do more semi-sharp analysis like that? It would make my job so much easier.



He does analysis like that all the time. Also, I don't think it's very often, if at all, that his analysis/figures get torn apart.

Is part of his job to find vulnerabilities and show casinos there is an issue? Yes.
To most casinos, are these vulnerabiliies a huge risk to them? Probably not.
Is it the casinos job to decide if they want to listen to or hire elliot based on the information he provides? Yes

It's a free market. He sells his services and casinos either purchase them or they don't. Nothing wrong with that.

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
GBV
GBV
Joined: Jun 12, 2012
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 110
May 13th, 2013 at 12:29:40 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

Quote: GBV

Quote: teliot

Also, I don't think it's very often, if at all, that his analysis/figures get torn apart.

ZCore13



Case study: take a look at the baccarat article he cites above.

1) His analysis looks at the problem in terms of pure EV and ignores risk completely, an approach out-of-date by ten to fifteen years.
2) The only plausible inference from 1) is that he has never really researched the issue properly and is familiar at most with a handful of outdated primary sources.
3) He ignores the effects of backcounting on expectation, and hands per hour. Given that baccarat allows an extraordinary degree of freedom in that regard its an extraordinary omission. Imagine having to play-all at shoe blackjack.
4) The system that he uses to analyze the tie wager with the 9:1 payoff is a linear system. It has been well established in the literature (including my own) that linear systems do not work as a practical matter.
5) He states that his method outperforms end-play. In fact it under performs end-play by an order of magnitude, unless you use pure EV as a metric, which is insane.
6) He seems to believe deep penetration exists only online. If you want deep penetration at bac, then as a VIP player, you just need to ask for it, or just threaten to leave if they won't let you make a few more bets before the shuffle.
7) The article is written on the assumption that baccarat is some kind of carnival game where the table limits are $100 or something. The whole damn point of baccarat AP is that you can shove tens of thousands or more on a single hand and no one gives a crap.
8) His assumption that a computer is needed to analyze end-deck expectation is inaccurate. Memorizing the relevant permutations is less than trivial but a professional level chess or bridge player would probably laugh at the computational complexity.

I could go on (at great length), but I don't want to tip him off how to actually count cards effectively at baccarat.

This is ONE article on a matter of little interest to most. You would not believe the level of vitriol that has been directed at the broad base of his writings from some other AP's.

Bear in mind also that I've actually been more sympathetic to Jacobson than the vast majority of AP's. Even before he came out as a darksider he was very widely ridiculed. I use to defend him on the grounds that he had a creative mind and eccentricity wasn't a crime. But I'm just sick of it now, he's burning games out for no damn reason at all and even the casinos aren't benefiting.
teliot
teliot
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
  • Threads: 37
  • Posts: 1956
May 13th, 2013 at 6:03:03 PM permalink
Quote: GBV

I don't want to tip him off how to actually count cards effectively at baccarat.

That's pretty much all you need to say to establish your credibility.
ybot
ybot
Joined: Jan 8, 2012
  • Threads: 13
  • Posts: 147
May 30th, 2013 at 12:21:38 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

You're not amazed, neither am I. Casinos openly admit
they wait for the latest AP techniques to surface, they
never actively go after finding them. Its too much work
and casinos aren't known for hiring the the top 10% of
college grads. Its more like the middle third of high school
diploma holders.



You must know how AP work and think to find them and protect the Casino from them, no college grads.

Good news for real APs.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
  • Threads: 148
  • Posts: 2404
January 16th, 2019 at 2:58:09 AM permalink
I read the link about the edge on accumulator machines specifically about the green stamp machine.

but how do you determine the house advantage on a slot machine to begin with?

and then how do you determine when you've accumulated enough of whatever so that the machine is significantly favorable?

and how do you calculate when a must hit progressive machine becomes advantageous?


https://www.888casino.com/blog/advantage-play-against-slots
it's not the size of the dog in the fight that matters........................it's the size of the fight in the dog

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