MLB picks
Quote: steeldcosoopoo,
sorry for not responding yesterday, but we spent the day at a family birthday party. great stuff. amazing what being around a bunch of kids can do. feel good. uplifting. invigorating. fantastic.
my formula uses a set of stats which is meant to tell me which team is more likely to win. not necessarily 50% or 60% or 70% of the time, etc.
a team with only a slight edge, using my stats, is no less likely to win than the team with a larger statistical advantage. at least that is what I have seen so far.
the exception is the 2Xs plays which had shown a higher winning % when I backtested. those have not done so well since introduction.
i hope that I answered your question........
Yes, it has. Now I can help you, I think! In betting baseball, with a money line, your system which tells you a team is more likely to win, but not HOW MUCH more likely, is USELESS when selecting favorites. Since you have to lay odds your system could still lose money even if picking 55% winners. As an example. I have such a system. "Bet on the Yankees in home games." I can almost assure you the Yankees will win more than 50% of their home games, but since I will be laying odds in almost every game, I will probably lose money over the course of a season.
If your system can identify underdogs which have a greater than 50% chance of winning then on those bets you are positive EV.
Quote: SOOPOOYSince you have to lay odds your system could still lose money even if picking 55% winners. As an example. I have such a system. "Bet on the Yankees in home games." I can almost assure you the Yankees will win more than 50% of their home games, but since I will be laying odds in almost every game, I will probably lose money over the course of a season.
q]
soopoo, your above statement would be true IF i were picking EVERY favorite, or every game on the board. I do not. The formula only picks the teams that it expects, because of recent stats, to win. So, to use your example above, I would not be playing every Yankees home game. Just select Yankees home games that, because of recent performance and opposing team stats, points to the Yankees winning or losing.
Pardon me if I'm not articulating my position correctly.............that's always been a weakness of mine.DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
Quote: SOOPOOYSince you have to lay odds your system could still lose money even if picking 55% winners. As an example. I have such a system. "Bet on the Yankees in home games." I can almost assure you the Yankees will win more than 50% of their home games, but since I will be laying odds in almost every game, I will probably lose money over the course of a season.
q]
soopoo, your above statement would be true IF i were picking EVERY favorite, or every game on the board. I do not. The formula only picks the teams that it expects, because of recent stats, to win. So, to use your example above, I would not be playing every Yankees home game. Just select Yankees home games that, because of recent performance and opposing team stats, points to the Yankees winning or losing.
Pardon me if I'm not articulating my position correctly.............that's always been a weakness of mine.DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
Let me state mine. Just by the sheer number of sections, I felt your system had little value. I have known several bettors and/or bookies that could actually win consistently at betting baseball. Each had access to a nickle line and also shopped around for the
best price on a particular game. And the number of games they bet was minimal. If you think your system can not only beat the standard line, and also do it on many games, you are doomed to lose. The people behind the lines have 30+ years of experience
on average and this is how they make their living. Now if you review all your criteria, focus on the best selections, then and only then will you have a chance to succeed.
Today's picks are:
Toronto Blue Jays -130 (2 UNITS)
Washington Nationals EV
Cincinnati Reds -142
Minnesota Twins 156
Kansas City Royals 151
For the dog lovers out there, today's picks are:
Minnesota Twins 195
Baltimore Orioles 124 (2 UNITS)
We had a net loss yesterday of -300 and our YTD is now -1406. Our +130dogs were a net loser of -100 and we are now -47 YTD on those. The 2Xs plays were a loss of -200 and are now -1360 for the YTD.
Today's picks are:
Cleveland Indians 156 (2 UNITS)
Houston Astros 144 (2 UNITS)
The formula sure is picking more dogs lately.......and not doing well at it.
Today's picks are:
Toronto Blue Jays -119 (2 UNITS)
Boston Red Sox 152
Philadelphia Phillies -105
Seattle Mariners -126 (2 UNITS)
Today's picks are:
Boston Red Sox 175
Oakland Athletics -102
Minnesota Twins 113 (2 UNITS)
San Diego Padres 120
New York Mets 164
I am adding the following 2 picks to today's previous list of 5;
Detroit Tigers -132
Washington Nationals -128
Today's picks are:
Minnesota Twins 103 (2 UNITS)
St. Louis Cardinals -150
Colorado Rockies 148 (2 UNITS)
Quote: buzzpaffsteel, you are consistent. Now if only you could win LOL
Stick around. My ROI at the end of the season will probably astound you.
Quote: steeldcoStick around. My ROI at the end of the season will probably astound you.
That feels like it has a side bet written all over it. Steel, you feel like some action?
Perhaps I have been betting sports WAAAAAYYYY too long....lol
Quote: avargovThat feels like it has a side bet written all over it. Steel, you feel like some action?
avargov,
always up for a bit of a wager. i would be willing to wager that my ROI from 04/26 will exceed 30% (helluva return if I achieve it). I'm using 04/26 because it is the date of my first major tweak and really is the basis for the formula being used. Now buzz, what should the wager be?
Quote: steeldcoavargov,
always up for a bit of a wager. i would be willing to wager that my ROI from 04/26 will exceed 30% (helluva return if I achieve it). I'm using 04/26 because it is the date of my first major tweak and really is the basis for the formula being used. Now buzz, what should the wager be?
BTW, I meant the 30% to an annualized rate.
-I have know many skilled baseball bettors and I think taking your bet to attain 30% ROI, well, lets just say it's a great wager fore you or someone and let it go at that !
Quote: steeldcoavargov,
always up for a bit of a wager. i would be willing to wager that my ROI from 04/26 will exceed 30% (helluva return if I achieve it). I'm using 04/26 because it is the date of my first major tweak and really is the basis for the formula being used. Now buzz, what should the wager be?
I'm not sure of your definition? What do you consider your 'investment' to be? What are the actual parameters of the allowable bets? (Can you bet all of your bankroll on one bet at the end if you are down?) If you are up 30% with a week to go in the season will you still make bets or 'shut it down'? Way too vague.....
Just remember MONEY TALKS AND BULLSHIT WALKS LOL
Quote: avargovOk, well then, what are we using for the basis of the "investment"?
avargov, I'm afraid that I'm a bit confused. I've stated that my picks are in units unless otherwise stated as 2 units. A unit =100.
The investment is the amount that I would have needed to place all of my wagers, plus or minus any profit or loss as of that date. For example if the first day was 1 pick at -140 then the investmented amount is 140. If on the 2nd. day, after losing 140 the first day, i had another pick for -150 then the invested amount would be 290 (140+150). If on the 3rd. day i invested in 1 pick for -110 and won then at the end of that day my invested capital would be 190 (140+150-100). Without making it too complicated, the highest amount needed to play all of the picks for a particular day, less any profits, or plus any losses, would be the amount of invested capital upon which a return would be calculated.
Hopefully I'm being clear, let me know if not.
tQuote: SOOPOOI'm not sure of your definition? What do you consider your 'investment' to be? What are the actual parameters of the allowable bets? (Can you bet all of your bankroll on one bet at the end if you are down?) If you are up 30% with a week to go in the season will you still make bets or 'shut it down'? Way too vague.....
soopoo, please see my response to avargov. I suppose I could shut down with a week to go, but I wouldn't so any sort of rule would be fine with me as long as it was reasonable since there are days for which there are no picks, however, I don't recall it happening on consecutive days.
Quote: buzzpaffLooks like the ball is in your court Steel.
Just remember MONEY TALKS AND BULLSHIT WALKS LOL
Okay Buzz, lookin' for a reasonable wager.. don't make it cash since I don't want to have to chase down a deadbeat.....LOL
Quote: steeldcoOkay Buzz, lookin' for a reasonable wager.. don't make it cash since I don't want to have to chase down a deadbeat.....LOL
There is a reason I suggested POST TOASTIES ..
Quote: steeldcoavargov, I'm afraid that I'm a bit confused. I've stated that my picks are in units unless otherwise stated as 2 units. A unit =100.
The investment is the amount that I would have needed to place all of my wagers, plus or minus any profit or loss as of that date. For example if the first day was 1 pick at -140 then the investmented amount is 140. If on the 2nd. day, after losing 140 the first day, i had another pick for -150 then the invested amount would be 290 (140+150). If on the 3rd. day i invested in 1 pick for -110 and won then at the end of that day my invested capital would be 190 (140+150-100). Without making it too complicated, the highest amount needed to play all of the picks for a particular day, less any profits, or plus any losses, would be the amount of invested capital upon which a return would be calculated.
Hopefully I'm being clear, let me know if not.
You are being clear. But you have almost no chance of winning. 30% above the already included vig would be an astounding run of positive variance. I will bet you can't do it, with the wager being a dinner during my stay in Vegas, Oct 17 -21. I hope you will be there! How about these terms----- The bet starts August 1, ends August 31. You get to pick games using your formula, and bet as you have been so far (no $1000 bets, as an example). No 'shutting down' if at some point you are ahead, and no 'catching up' by increasing your bet size. But forget 30%. If you are 20% up, you win. Maximum dinner cost $100 per person. (If you can't make it to vegas then we can meet somewhere else or when convenient, I can't remember where you are from).
In an effort to try to clear up any confusion, at least in my head, why don't you just make a prediction on where your "bankroll" will be by seasons end? Since when it all said and done, the only thing that matters is how much scratch you have in your pocket. At least that is how I have viewed it in the 25 or so years that I bet on sports. Then we can decide if any wagers are warranted. As far as ROI is concerned, my definition of that in connection with this bet is, the total action of all of your wagers, +30%. Now again, perhaps I am a pinhead, and as the self proclaimed village idiot on this board, it would not be unheard of for the rest of the forum to tell me what an idiot I am.
Again, to be clear, how I understood your ROI statement was this. I will earn 30% for every dollar invested in this formula. In laymans terms, every dollar wagered will produce a +30% return.
Wow, upon rereading this post, I don't even think I understand it.....must be time for bed.
Using Steels ROI statement, if he were to get back to $0 at any point, he would no investment (I think this is what he is saying). So any amount of "shown" profit (1 unit up) would amount to a huge ROI %. Unless he is saying the highest amount he would have needed, in any one day, to keep his bets going. In that case, he would still only have to show a profit of around $900 (providing my quick math is even close to correct), since I don't think there is a day where he was down $3000 (losses + bets for that day).
IMO, that would not be the correct way to determine the ROI. But again, I am just a lowly truck driver, what do I know.
Quote: SOOPOOYou are being clear. But you have almost no chance of winning. 30% above the already included vig would be an astounding run of positive variance. I will bet you can't do it, with the wager being a dinner during my stay in Vegas, Oct 17 -21. I hope you will be there! How about these terms----- The bet starts August 1, ends August 31. You get to pick games using your formula, and bet as you have been so far (no $1000 bets, as an example). No 'shutting down' if at some point you are ahead, and no 'catching up' by increasing your bet size. But forget 30%. If you are 20% up, you win. Maximum dinner cost $100 per person. (If you can't make it to vegas then we can meet somewhere else or when convenient, I can't remember where you are from).
soopoo, i'm not sure that you understand. i'm not out to rip someone off. A 30% return, in investing, and in particular these days, is a tremendous return. I earned an average 25% in the stock market for the period 1999 thru 2004 and it was unbelievable what I had made.
HOWEVER, for MLB picks since 04/26 my needed bankroll has never gotten above 1,100 and has averaged much less. In round numbers, a 30% return on 1,100 would be $330 for a year. In round numbers, again, 04/26 thru now is only about 3 months. Therefore, I would only need to show a positive return as of today of around $330 X .25 or $82.50 to achieve a 30% annualized return. I would have to go on a large losing streak, increasing my needed bankroll in order to continue, to run the risk of not needing a relatively small amount to achieve a nice return.
Do you still think that would be an astounding run?
Quote: avargovmy previous post has my head spinning....so let me try this.
Using Steels ROI statement, if he were to get back to $0 at any point, he would no investment (I think this is what he is saying). So any amount of "shown" profit (1 unit up) would amount to a huge ROI %. Unless he is saying the highest amount he would have needed, in any one day, to keep his bets going. In that case, he would still only have to show a profit of around $900 (providing my quick math is even close to correct), since I don't think there is a day where he was down $3000 (losses + bets for that day).
IMO, that would not be the correct way to determine the ROI. But again, I am just a lowly truck driver, what do I know.
avargov, it is the correct way to compute an ROI and you are much closer to right than wrong. I have not needed any more than 1,100 to make all of the picks that I have made. Therefore, my invested capital, and I'm being generous here since I should account for this by using an average invested, has only been 1,100.
I wouldn't place a wager using you method of ROI.
I think what Soopoo offered would be a good bet.
Quote: avargovSteel, I can't really speak for Soopoo, but I think he was thinking what I am thinking. That you ROI would be based on ALL monies wagered. Therefore, if you have made 500 bets ($50000 invested) that you would need to be up $15000 to show a 30% ROI.
I wouldn't place a wager using you method of ROI.
I think what Soopoo offered would be a good bet.
avargov, please lookup the definition of ROI. I have had to "invest" no more than 1,100 at any one point in time. That's all that I have needed. That, therefore is my investment. Whatever I make is divided by that amount. It of course changes should I go on a longer losing streak.
If I had purchased $1,100 of stock on January 1st. and then sold it on December 31st, for $1,650 then my ROI would have been 50%.
Function
If you deposit $1,000 in a savings account and leave it there for a year, you'll have $1000 plus an additional sum which is the interest the bank paid you. If your ending balance is $1050, your money earned $50, and so the return on your investment is 5.0 percent. This example illustrates the basic concept of return on investment. However, from there, calculating ROI can get fairly complicated. Most savings accounts pay compound interest., meaning that periodically during the year the interest you've earned so far is calculated and added to your balance--at which point that added amount starts earning interest, increasing the amount you get at the end of the year. If compounding increases that $50 to $52 at year's end, your return on investment is 5.2 percent.
Read more: Definition of ROI | eHow.com http://www.ehow.com/about_4673192_definition-of-roi.html#ixzz2240N6MRW
Since this a gambling board, I assumed, and I think Soo assumed the same, that you were referring to your profit/loss compared to the amount "wagered". I could also assume, like most of us, that you had a "starting bankroll". Therefore, my assumption would be that your ROI would be based on that starting amount. Not a floating amount depending on what you wanted to use that day.
Speaking of which, you would then have to use all of your bets from the beginning of the season, not pick and choose what date range "looks" best.
Here is a wager for you:
You use your formula to make picks throughout the month of August, betting whatever you spreadsheet tells you to bet. I will then, using the same games and wager amounts, flip a coin to determine which team I will bet on (please provide both sides of the line each morning). If you win, you keep posting your picks for the remainder of the season, and I will change my signature to reflect that your formula has merit. If I win, you stop posting your picks, and change your signature to reflect that a coin is better than your formula. Bet?
Now, with this being said, I have been rooting you on all season. However, I don't think your formula has any merit at all. It hasn't produced any significant winnings at all (pretty obvious with the season to date totals).
Are we on?
There is more than one way to skin a cat
Quote: avargovSteel, I understand what ROI is....it hasn't been THAT long since I was a director at a Dow component company. Technically, you haven't invested any money, so you would have no return on investment.
Since this a gambling board, I assumed, and I think Soo assumed the same, that you were referring to your profit/loss compared to the amount "wagered". I could also assume, like most of us, that you had a "starting bankroll". Therefore, my assumption would be that your ROI would be based on that starting amount. Not a floating amount depending on what you wanted to use that day.
Speaking of which, you would then have to use all of your bets from the beginning of the season, not pick and choose what date range "looks" best.
Here is a wager for you:
You use your formula to make picks throughout the month of August, betting whatever you spreadsheet tells you to bet. I will then, using the same games and wager amounts, flip a coin to determine which team I will bet on (please provide both sides of the line each morning). If you win, you keep posting your picks for the remainder of the season, and I will change my signature to reflect that your formula has merit. If I win, you stop posting your picks, and change your signature to reflect that a coin is better than your formula. Bet?
Now, with this being said, I have been rooting you on all season. However, I don't think your formula has any merit at all. It hasn't produced any significant winnings at all (pretty obvious with the season to date totals).
Are we on?
avargov, i clearly stated ROI. I think I also attempted to show how it is calculated. If you know how ROI is calculated then why would you assume something else? While we're at it, please define bankroll and tell me how I used the term erroneously. Not trying to be a jerk here, but am curious.
Lastly, you're right. I have not invested anything. However, had I been going to the window then the cash required would have been less than $1,100. That is, therefore, my "investment".
.Quote: avargovAnd one other thing, probably where the confusion came from. When I bet $100 to win $100, the $100 I give the agent is gone....out of my pocket. So, if I win, I collect $200. 100% ROI, right? Now I place a second EV bet for $100. That $100 is gone, invested if you will. I lose. $200 invested, $100 in my pocket. 50% ROI, right? I do this again, $100 wager, taken by agent, gone. Win. Invested $300 (3 $100 wagers), $200 in my pocket, 67% ROI. And so on. Since each bet is independent of each other, the ROI can be calculated individually, then averaged. We ain't trying to make P&L's or balance sheets look good here. I think Cess stated it best, to find what your return is per dollar wagered.
There is more than one way to skin a cat
Geez......I'm not trying to make anything "look good" here. If you take your example above and average it, it should come out to just taking an investment as of a certain point in time, taking all your profits or losses as of a future date, and then determing your return. No different than what ROI as I stated it, is calculated.
Quote: buzzpaffI aint no math expert but if your bankroll is $1,000 and " Terrible day (worst day since 05/11) with a net loss of -668 which brought our YTD to -1180." , where do you get the money for the next bets ?
Buzz, now you know that i clearly stated "since 04/26". Right? Go back and look where i was at on that date and work forward. I'll glad print a daily list if you like?
Your bankroll is the amount of money that you have set aside for the purpose of gambling. Last year, when I posted my CFB picks, I had a starting bankroll of $5000 in which to wager. That would have been my initial "investment", although I never physically used the entire amount at the window. I don't remember now where I ended the season.
My final statement is to use Cesspits method: Calculate you profit/loss per dollar wagered. If you wager $50,000 and after all bets are resolved, you have $50,500 in your pocket, your profit per dollar wagered is $.01. You would be getting a 101% return. Or a 1% ROI. If you started with $1100, and then have $1600, your ROI would be what, 45%? I am not necessarily arguing ROI, I guess it is the method that you want to use to show your formula works (or can work). In your saving account example, you never "lose" control of the $1000. When wagering, the money is gone, out of your control, until the bet is resolved (unless you are using a bookie). That is why I encourage you to view each bet as a separate "investment".
So, have you considered my wager? And, I am still rooting for you brother!
Date +130dogs Others Total Day
4/26/2012 315 -103 212 Thursday
4/27/2012 -100 -160 -260 Friday
4/28/2012 -100 173 73 Saturday
4/29/2012 -100 72 -28 Sunday
4/30/2012 -150 -110 -260 Monday
5/1/2012 56 115 171 Tuesday
5/2/2012 275 0 275 Wednesday
5/3/2012 142 108 250 Thursday
5/4/2012 189 -113 76 Friday
5/5/2012 103 103 Saturday
5/6/2012 154 100 254 Sunday
5/7/2012 157 179 336 Monday
5/8/2012 346 -10 336 Tuesday
5/9/2012 -6 -6 Wednesday
5/10/2012 -100 0 -100 Thursday
5/11/2012 -200 -442 -642 Friday
5/12/2012 55 342 397 Saturday
5/13/2012 140 16 156 Sunday
5/14/2012 577 -131 446 Monday
5/15/2012 -200 116 -84 Tuesday
5/16/2012 170 250 420 Wednesday
5/17/2012 56 116 172 Thursday
5/18/2012 135 311 446 Friday
5/19/2012 145 -133 12 Saturday
5/20/2012 -100 -8 -108 Sunday
5/21/2012 37 -152 -115 Monday
5/22/2012 -100 -13 -113 Tuesday
5/23/2012 -100 203 103 Wednesday
5/24/2012 0 -144 -144 Thursday
5/25/2012 -100 0 -100 Friday
5/26/2012 -50 -319 -369 Saturday
5/27/2012 -400 404 4 Sunday
5/28/2012 -100 -107 -207 Monday
5/29/2012 144 57 201 Tuesday
5/30/2012 220 -346 -126 Wednesday
5/31/2012 0 -138 -138 Thursday
6/1/2012 0 100 100 Friday
6/2/2012 42 -282 -240 Saturday
6/3/2012 -66 -103 -169 Sunday
6/4/2012 0 -133 -133 Monday
6/5/2012 -100 -75 -175 Tuesday
6/6/2012 174 80 254 Wednesday
6/7/2012 -65 -360 -425 Thursday
6/8/2012 -200 34 -166 Friday
6/9/2012 -300 192 -108 Saturday
6/10/2012 45 -273 -228 Sunday
6/11/2012 145 100 245 Monday
6/12/2012 -100 -152 -252 Tuesday
6/13/2012 -136 -126 -262 Wednesday
6/14/2012 144 240 384 Thursday
6/15/2012 0 0 0 Friday
6/16/2012 -100 -79 -179 Saturday
6/17/2012 -100 822 722 Sunday
6/18/2012 0 200 200 Monday
6/19/2012 0 209 209 Tuesday
6/20/2012 0 200 200 Wednesday
6/21/2012 0 -278 -278 Thursday
6/22/2012 0 0 0 Friday
6/23/2012 140 100 240 Saturday
6/24/2012 -300 100 -200 Sunday
6/25/2012 0 -329 -329 Monday
6/26/2012 -100 -200 -300 Tuesday
6/27/2012 0 -118 -118 Wednesday
6/28/2012 175 228 403 Thursday
6/29/2012 0 90 90 Friday
6/30/2012 66 100 166 Saturday
7/1/2012 -300 800 500 Sunday
7/2/2012 100 -200 -100 Monday
7/3/2012 -60 0 -60 Tuesday
7/4/2012 -49 -452 -501 Wednesday
7/5/2012 0 -392 -392 Thursday
7/6/2012 320 200 520 Friday
7/7/2012 -300 100 -200 Saturday
7/8/2012 -200 -113 -313 Sunday
7/14/2012 0 -309 -309 Saturday
7/15/2012 -351 600 249 Sunday
7/16/2012 -100 -100 -200 Monday
7/17/2012 55 -240 -185 Tuesday
7/18/2012 44 316 360 Wednesday
7/19/2012 0 300 300 Thursday
7/20/2012 0 -280 -280 Friday
7/21/2012 0 -668 -668 Saturday
7/22/2012 30 -60 -30 Sunday
7/23/2012 0 113 113 Monday
7/24/2012 51 -60 -9 Tuesday
7/25/2012 -100 -200 -300 Wednesday
7/26/2012 112 0 112 Thursday
7/27/2012 0 195 195 Friday
7/28/2012 75 194 269 Saturday
7/29/2012 0 -144 -144 Sunday
Total 104 117 221
