MLB picks
June 7th, 2012 at 2:44:50 PM
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I really have limited knowledge on the game of Baseball, I can throw a ball, but do not ask me to hit one with a bat :)
At work, there are a group of baseball guys that keep saying this is the best start to just bet the dogs in any year they can remember.
So, I had to look up this stuff.
I guess they know what they are talking about.
From covers.com
Wow!
Even I can figure on who to bet on.
Hope it continues!!
At work, there are a group of baseball guys that keep saying this is the best start to just bet the dogs in any year they can remember.
So, I had to look up this stuff.
I guess they know what they are talking about.
From covers.com
Against The Spread Trends (ATS)
Category Record Percent
Away Teams 462-385 54.55%
Home Teams 385-462 45.45%
Favorites 339-508 40.02%
Dogs 508-339 59.98%
Away Favorites 123-169 42.12%
Away Dogs 339-216 61.08%
Home Favorites 216-339 38.92%
Home Dogs 169-123 57.88%Wow!
Even I can figure on who to bet on.
Hope it continues!!
I Heart Vi Hart
June 8th, 2012 at 8:14:49 AM
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mustangsally,
What you have copied and pasted are the results against the spread (run line). If you look at the results straight up (used for bets on money line) then the results are entirely different. More like around 45% winners with the dogs. Maybe worse? Look it up.
What you have copied and pasted are the results against the spread (run line). If you look at the results straight up (used for bets on money line) then the results are entirely different. More like around 45% winners with the dogs. Maybe worse? Look it up.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 8th, 2012 at 8:29:27 AM
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.........and right back into the red. Yesterday was a net loss of -425 and YTD now stands at a net loss of -340. The +130dogs also had a net loss of -65 and its YTD is a net win of +1,434. The new 2Xs group had a net loss of -360 and its YTD is a net loss of -106.
Strange as it might sound, I felt pretty good about yesterday's picks with the exception of. one of the games. Even after the fact. Call me goofy..........
However, today's picks....I don't know....again, too many favorites. Today's picks are:
Baltimore Orioles -130
New York Yankees -143
Cincinnati Reds -136
Milwaukee Brewers -160
St. Louis Cardinals -136
San Francisco Giants 130 (2 UNITS)
Strange as it might sound, I felt pretty good about yesterday's picks with the exception of. one of the games. Even after the fact. Call me goofy..........
However, today's picks....I don't know....again, too many favorites. Today's picks are:
Baltimore Orioles -130
New York Yankees -143
Cincinnati Reds -136
Milwaukee Brewers -160
St. Louis Cardinals -136
San Francisco Giants 130 (2 UNITS)
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 8th, 2012 at 8:53:47 AM
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Thanks!Quote: steeldcomustangsally,
What you have copied and pasted are the results against the spread (run line). If you look at the results straight up (used for bets on money line) then the results are entirely different. More like around 45% winners with the dogs. Maybe worse? Look it up.
Now I got it.
Baseball betting is different from Basketball and Football, had to read the Wizard's page on it, because of the low scoring and the winning by 1 run stat.
So, you pick just winners, the money line, and the favs for the money line
are now the dogs on the run line cuz they have to win by at least 2 runs.
So, I like the LA Angles :)
Today they are the favs at -150 (Bovada) to win the game.
But they are +105 to win by 2 runs. (others are at +110)
I say they should win by at least 5 in Colorado!
So I should bet the run line.
I risk less to win more.
So, I guess one needs to do some homework.
But why do you limit yourself to just picking winners?
Are not there good bets also on the run line?
Not every game is decided by just 1 run.
I Heart Vi Hart
June 8th, 2012 at 9:32:17 AM
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mustangsally,
Thanks. I limit myself to picking winners using the money line because I want to try and develop a consistant methodology. Introducing a run line would be an additional variable that would just complicate things. I'm kinda a big believer in the KISS (keep it simple stupid) principle........especially since I have found that I can be pretty stupid at times.........
Thanks. I limit myself to picking winners using the money line because I want to try and develop a consistant methodology. Introducing a run line would be an additional variable that would just complicate things. I'm kinda a big believer in the KISS (keep it simple stupid) principle........especially since I have found that I can be pretty stupid at times.........
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 9th, 2012 at 7:44:01 AM
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Sure enough, I get uncomfortable because of the number of favorites being picked and they actually do okay. The sole dog cost me a winning day. Looking at today's slate of picks, I can only hope that my gut continues to be wrong. Yesterday was a net loss of -166 and YTD now stands at -506. The +130dogs also had a losing day to the tune of -200 and its YTD is at a net win of +1,234.
Today's picks are:
Minnesota Twins -122
San Francisco Giants -103 (2 UNITS)
Washington Nationals -110
Atlanta Braves -138
Milwaukee Brewers -140 (2 UNITS)
Cincinnati Reds 132 (2 UNITS)
New York Mets 143
Miami Marlins -114 (2 UNITS)
Los Angeles Dodgers -128
Arizona DiamondBacks -140
Today's picks are:
Minnesota Twins -122
San Francisco Giants -103 (2 UNITS)
Washington Nationals -110
Atlanta Braves -138
Milwaukee Brewers -140 (2 UNITS)
Cincinnati Reds 132 (2 UNITS)
New York Mets 143
Miami Marlins -114 (2 UNITS)
Los Angeles Dodgers -128
Arizona DiamondBacks -140
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 9th, 2012 at 7:45:55 AM
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Sorry. I forgot to mention that the 2Xs group was a net loss of -200 and its YTD is now -306. This new subset is off to a bad start and its existence is going to be short lived if it continues.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 10th, 2012 at 6:19:46 AM
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We had a net loss yesterday of -108 which left the YTD at -614. The +130dogs have also seen better days. It had a net loss of -300 and its YTD is now a net win of +934. Lastly, the 2Xs group was a net loss of -508 and its YTD is -814 (genius move in introducing this group....sheesh. Goes to show that you should never rush into anything). I will be giving it until Wednesday to show a turnaround. There are no 2Xs picks today.
Today's picks are:
Boston Red Sox -140
San Diego Padres 147
Houston Astros 145
Minnesota Twins -133
Today's picks are:
Boston Red Sox -140
San Diego Padres 147
Houston Astros 145
Minnesota Twins -133
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 11th, 2012 at 6:59:18 AM
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More of the same it seems.......just as an fyi, I have had 17 losing days out of the past 22.....and have had only 57 picks right out of a total of 130 during these 22 days.
Yesterday was a net loss of -228 and YTD is now -842. The +130dogs had a net win of +45 and its YTD is now +979. The 2Xs group remains at a YTD of -814.
Today's picks are:
Washington Nationals 145
New York Yankees -114
Yesterday was a net loss of -228 and YTD is now -842. The +130dogs had a net win of +45 and its YTD is now +979. The 2Xs group remains at a YTD of -814.
Today's picks are:
Washington Nationals 145
New York Yankees -114
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 12th, 2012 at 3:48:28 AM
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Woo Hoo! A winning day. The first of at least 30 in a row..............lololol.....always said hope springs eternal.....
We had a net win yesterday of +245 and YTD is now a net loss of -597. The +130dogs had a net winner of +145 and its YTD is now +1,124. There were no 2Xs picks.
Today's picks are:
Toronto Blue Jays -152
Atlanta Braves 136
We had a net win yesterday of +245 and YTD is now a net loss of -597. The +130dogs had a net winner of +145 and its YTD is now +1,124. There were no 2Xs picks.
Today's picks are:
Toronto Blue Jays -152
Atlanta Braves 136
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 13th, 2012 at 7:47:23 AM
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From Woo Hoo to Boo Hoo (damn Yankeess).......yesterday was a net loss of -252 and YTD is now at -849. The +130dogs had a net loss of -100 and its YTD now stands at a net win of +1,024 (at least something is up). Today's picks includes a fair number of dogs. Also, a couple of 2Xs plays. Looking forward to how it does.....
Today's picks are:
Baltimore Orioles -142 (2 Units)
Cleveland Indians 135
New York Mets 133
Arizona DiamondBacks 150
Chicago Cubs -108 (2 Units)
Minnesota Twins 140
Colorado Rockies -110
San Diego Padres 131
Houston Astros 180
Today's picks are:
Baltimore Orioles -142 (2 Units)
Cleveland Indians 135
New York Mets 133
Arizona DiamondBacks 150
Chicago Cubs -108 (2 Units)
Minnesota Twins 140
Colorado Rockies -110
San Diego Padres 131
Houston Astros 180
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 14th, 2012 at 5:50:47 AM
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Alright, it's time to change things up. The way the +130dogs are calculated I'm going to leave as is. However, I'll be changing the formula on the others to incorporate a couple of pitching stats not previously used. The formula to date has been heavily weighted with hitting stats. Yesterday was a net loss of -262 and its YTD is now -1,111. The +130dogs took it on the chin for a -136 loss and its YTD is now a net win of +888. The 2Xs group was -16 and its YTD is now -830.
Today's picks are (pitching stats added):
New York Mets 116
Houston Astros 128
Arizona DiamondBacks 144
Milwaukee Brewers -122
Philadelphia Phillies 118
Today's picks are (pitching stats added):
New York Mets 116
Houston Astros 128
Arizona DiamondBacks 144
Milwaukee Brewers -122
Philadelphia Phillies 118
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 15th, 2012 at 5:45:26 AM
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Now that's better...........
Yesterday was a net win of +384 and YTD is now -727. Our +130dogs were a net winner for +144 and its YTD is now +1,032.
There are no picks today.
Yesterday was a net win of +384 and YTD is now -727. Our +130dogs were a net winner for +144 and its YTD is now +1,032.
There are no picks today.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 16th, 2012 at 7:32:38 AM
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There were no picks yesterday.
Today's picks are:
New York Yankees -117
Colorado Rockies 145
Tampa Bay Rays -132 (2 UNITS)
LA Angels of Anaheim -130 (2 UNITS)
San Francisco Giants -115
Today's picks are:
New York Yankees -117
Colorado Rockies 145
Tampa Bay Rays -132 (2 UNITS)
LA Angels of Anaheim -130 (2 UNITS)
San Francisco Giants -115
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 17th, 2012 at 9:51:12 AM
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We had a net loss yesterday of -179 and that left the YTD at -906 (Chinese water torture comes to mind..........). The +130dogs had a net loss of -100 and its YTD is now a net win of +932. The 2Xs group split and ended with a loss of -64 and that YTD is now -894. Today's picks are:
Toronto Blue Jays -135 (2 UNITS)
Pittsburgh Pirates 122
Houston Astros 200
Seattle Mariners -106 (2 UNITS)
Los Angeles Dodgers -112 (2 UNITS)
Boston Red Sox -122
Toronto Blue Jays -135 (2 UNITS)
Pittsburgh Pirates 122
Houston Astros 200
Seattle Mariners -106 (2 UNITS)
Los Angeles Dodgers -112 (2 UNITS)
Boston Red Sox -122
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 18th, 2012 at 7:20:07 AM
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Nothing like a winning day to make things right in the world..........
We had a net win of +722 yesterday which brought our YTD to -184. Unfortunately, the +130dogs had a loser for -100 and its YTD is now +832. The 2Xs group had a good day by going 3 and 0 for a +600 and its YTD is now -294.
There are 2 picks today:
Milwaukee Brewers -102
Arizona DiamondBacks -169
We had a net win of +722 yesterday which brought our YTD to -184. Unfortunately, the +130dogs had a loser for -100 and its YTD is now +832. The 2Xs group had a good day by going 3 and 0 for a +600 and its YTD is now -294.
There are 2 picks today:
Milwaukee Brewers -102
Arizona DiamondBacks -169
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 18th, 2012 at 7:23:40 AM
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BTW, since I had adjusted the formula by adding a couple of pitching stats, we have had 11 winners and 5 losers. I've gotten unduly excited with short term results before, so I remain hopeful that maybe the process is going to start showing good results.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 19th, 2012 at 3:37:59 AM
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Nice. A couple of winning days and we're back in the black. Yesterday was a net win of +200 and YTD is now a net win of (drumroll please.......) +16.
There were no +130dogs or 2Xs plays.
Today's picks are:
Cincinnati Reds -105
Kansas City Royals 114
LA Angels of Anaheim -200 (2 UNITS)
There were no +130dogs or 2Xs plays.
Today's picks are:
Cincinnati Reds -105
Kansas City Royals 114
LA Angels of Anaheim -200 (2 UNITS)
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 20th, 2012 at 7:07:22 AM
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Damn.......winning feels good. It's only been a few days since the pitching stats were added but so far so good. You have to like the results. Now if only this can be achieved on a consistant basis. Time will tell but the recent trend looks great.
Yesterday was a net win of +209 and YTD is now a net win of +225. There were no +130dogs yesterday so its YTD remains at a net win of +832. There was one 2Xs play and it won for a +200 and the YTD on those is now -94 (making a nice comeback).
There is only 1 pick today:
Washington Nationals -187 (2 UNITS)
Yesterday was a net win of +209 and YTD is now a net win of +225. There were no +130dogs yesterday so its YTD remains at a net win of +832. There was one 2Xs play and it won for a +200 and the YTD on those is now -94 (making a nice comeback).
There is only 1 pick today:
Washington Nationals -187 (2 UNITS)
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 20th, 2012 at 9:31:51 AM
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BTW, since we added the pitching stats 6 days ago, the picks have recorded 15 wins and 6 losses. An average per day win of +223. Gettin' excited again.........
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 21st, 2012 at 3:45:45 AM
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Getting up in the morning has become a whole hell of alot easier. Nice to go without a loss.
We were 1 and 0 yesterday for a net win of +200 and YTD is now a net win of +425. There were no +130dogs and there was one 2Xs play, which won for a +200 and the YTD for that subset is now in the black with a net win of +106. Since adding the pitching stats it seems that we are getting alot more favorites picked........initially bothersome, but so far I have to like the results of a much higher win rate. We now have 16 wins and only 6 losses since the pitching stats were added.
Today's picks are:
Los Angeles Dodgers -138
Philadelphia Phillies -170 (2 UNITS)
Boston Red Sox -128 (2 UNITS)
We were 1 and 0 yesterday for a net win of +200 and YTD is now a net win of +425. There were no +130dogs and there was one 2Xs play, which won for a +200 and the YTD for that subset is now in the black with a net win of +106. Since adding the pitching stats it seems that we are getting alot more favorites picked........initially bothersome, but so far I have to like the results of a much higher win rate. We now have 16 wins and only 6 losses since the pitching stats were added.
Today's picks are:
Los Angeles Dodgers -138
Philadelphia Phillies -170 (2 UNITS)
Boston Red Sox -128 (2 UNITS)
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 22nd, 2012 at 6:27:38 AM
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Damgummit............just when I thought that I would just win the rest of the way out......... :-)
We lost -278 yesterday which brought our YTD to a net win of +147. There were no +130dogs and the 2Xs group split for a net loss of -140 and its YTD is now -34.
With many of the teams having a day off yesterday, there ended up being no picks today. We'll have to wait until tomorrow to see if the winning can resume.
We lost -278 yesterday which brought our YTD to a net win of +147. There were no +130dogs and the 2Xs group split for a net loss of -140 and its YTD is now -34.
With many of the teams having a day off yesterday, there ended up being no picks today. We'll have to wait until tomorrow to see if the winning can resume.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 23rd, 2012 at 8:41:30 AM
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Wow. Yesterday was a tough day.............needed some reason to watch and there were no picks. Drove me crazy. Since this will probably happen as many as 2 times per week, I'm going to spend some time to find a formula to apply on those days after off days. Plus......today is only 2 picks. Geez......I know that I don't want to play the entire board but......
Toronto Blue Jays 140
St. Louis Cardinals -128
Toronto Blue Jays 140
St. Louis Cardinals -128
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 23rd, 2012 at 8:41:51 AM
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Wow. Yesterday was a tough day.............needed some reason to watch and there were no picks. Drove me crazy. Since this will probably happen as many as 2 times per week, I'm going to spend some time to find a formula to apply on those days after off days. Plus......today is only 2 picks. Geez......I know that I don't want to play the entire board but......
Toronto Blue Jays 140
St. Louis Cardinals -128
Toronto Blue Jays 140
St. Louis Cardinals -128
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 23rd, 2012 at 8:41:51 AM
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Wow. Yesterday was a tough day.............needed some reason to watch and there were no picks. Drove me crazy. Since this will probably happen as many as 2 times per week, I'm going to spend some time to find a formula to apply on those days after off days. Plus......today is only 2 picks. Geez......I know that I don't want to play the entire board but......
Toronto Blue Jays 140
St. Louis Cardinals -128
Toronto Blue Jays 140
St. Louis Cardinals -128
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 23rd, 2012 at 8:41:51 AM
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Wow. Yesterday was a tough day.............needed some reason to watch and there were no picks. Drove me crazy. Since this will probably happen as many as 2 times per week, I'm going to spend some time to find a formula to apply on those days after off days. Plus......today is only 2 picks. Geez......I know that I don't want to play the entire board but......
Toronto Blue Jays 140
St. Louis Cardinals -128
Toronto Blue Jays 140
St. Louis Cardinals -128
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 23rd, 2012 at 8:43:05 AM
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Apparently I have discovered that I stutter............
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 24th, 2012 at 7:21:28 AM
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Alright. A good day because it prevented back to back days of losses. Love the trend so far since adding a couple of pitching stats. We went 2 and 0 for a net win of +240 and our YTD is now as net win of +387. There was a +130dog that won for +140 and its YTD now stands at +972. There were no 2Xs plays.
Today's picks are:
Minnesota Twins 140
St. Louis Cardinals -145
Chicago Cubs 145
Colorado Rockies 220
Today's picks are:
Minnesota Twins 140
St. Louis Cardinals -145
Chicago Cubs 145
Colorado Rockies 220
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 24th, 2012 at 7:50:24 AM
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In reviewing today's picks, I find that I screwed up. I didn't correctly update the pitching stats and it used stale numbers in error. The net effect when using the correctly updated pitching stats is that it dropped one of the original picks and added one. Sorry for any confusion.
Today's correct list of picks:
Atlanta Braves 140
St. Louis Cardinals -145
Chicago Cubs 145
Colorado Rockies 220
Today's correct list of picks:
Atlanta Braves 140
St. Louis Cardinals -145
Chicago Cubs 145
Colorado Rockies 220
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 25th, 2012 at 6:29:03 AM
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Geez.....I was better off leaving it screwed up. We had a net loss of -200 yesterday and that brought the YTD to +187. The +130dogs took it on the chin once again and lost -200 and its YTD is now +672. The 2Xs group had no plays. The formula seems to be picking fewer dogs than it did, but now I wonder whether it makes sense considering how the dogs have done lately? That maybe it's a good thing?
Here's today's picks:
St. Louis Cardinals -111 6WV
Boston Red Sox -147 5WV (2 UNITS)
New York Mets -135 5LH
Here's today's picks:
St. Louis Cardinals -111 6WV
Boston Red Sox -147 5WV (2 UNITS)
New York Mets -135 5LH
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 26th, 2012 at 4:39:13 AM
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Sure. As soon as I mention that the favorites seem to be doing better, the formula picks 3 favorites and goes 0 for 3. Never fails. If I wanted to PLAN on looking like an ass, I couldn't do it this well.
We had a net loss of -329 yesterday and our YTD is now -142. There were no +130dogs and our 2Xs group had a net loss of -294 and its YTD is now -328.
Today's picks are:
Toronto Blue Jays 150
Miami Marlins EV (2 UNITS)
We had a net loss of -329 yesterday and our YTD is now -142. There were no +130dogs and our 2Xs group had a net loss of -294 and its YTD is now -328.
Today's picks are:
Toronto Blue Jays 150
Miami Marlins EV (2 UNITS)
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 27th, 2012 at 8:49:49 AM
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Today's picks are:
Milwaukee Brewers -108
Chicago Cubs -102 (2 UNITS)
Philadelphia Phillies -107 (2 UNITS)
Atlanta Braves -128 (2 UNITS)
Out of time. I will recap yesterday sometime later today.
Milwaukee Brewers -108
Chicago Cubs -102 (2 UNITS)
Philadelphia Phillies -107 (2 UNITS)
Atlanta Braves -128 (2 UNITS)
Out of time. I will recap yesterday sometime later today.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 27th, 2012 at 9:37:23 AM
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Quote: AcesAndEightsSOOPOO, if I understand correctly, the +130 dogs are a subset of his overall winnings. So the net loss of -133 reported in this post includes the +130 dogs in addition to all of the other bets. If he had bet JUST the +130 dogs he would have been +1425, if he had excluded them and bet everything else, he would be negative the large number you posted.
steeldco, correct me if I'm wrong. This thread is your baby, just chiming in :)
Yes-- that's why I'm saying this.... ANY time his 'system' comes up with a pick that is NOT a +130 underdog, then bet the OPPOSITE way his 'system' would say. Pretty simple concept.
June 27th, 2012 at 9:44:04 AM
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For whatever it's worth, steel, I still believe that a far better way for you to accomplish your goal, which I assume is devising a system that can overcome the vig in MLB betting, is to test whatever system you have against previous year's results. That way you do not have to wait so long to find out your 'new' tweaked system is a failure. I think it is pretty easy to get all of last years results. My comment in the previous post was reall meant tongue in cheek, I would guess betting against your system would lose to the vig, too.
June 27th, 2012 at 2:52:22 PM
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soopoo, thanks for the commentary. As I've stated previously, I just don't have the time to replicate what I do on a daily basis and backtest it thru last year's results without spending a significant amount of time. The data used in my formula changes daily, and by team. To run thru all of last year's schedule would be forever............
I've made 306 picks since 04/26, the day of my first major revision to the formula, and my record is 154 wins and 152 losses. Talk about a waste.......
However, I continue to believe that something can be developed. We will see.
I've made 306 picks since 04/26, the day of my first major revision to the formula, and my record is 154 wins and 152 losses. Talk about a waste.......
However, I continue to believe that something can be developed. We will see.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 27th, 2012 at 5:08:51 PM
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You're nothing if not optimistic my friend. As always...good luck.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
June 27th, 2012 at 5:13:30 PM
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Quote: steeldcosoopoo, thanks for the commentary. As I've stated previously, I just don't have the time to replicate what I do on a daily basis and backtest it thru last year's results without spending a significant amount of time. The data used in my formula changes daily, and by team. To run thru all of last year's schedule would be forever............
I've made 306 picks since 04/26, the day of my first major revision to the formula, and my record is 154 wins and 152 losses. Talk about a waste.......
However, I continue to believe that something can be developed. We will see.
Maybe not a waste. If you are picking more underdogs than favorites 154-152 is good. Anyway, good luck....
June 28th, 2012 at 3:46:33 AM
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Thank you avargov. What's the old saying......."where there's a will, there's a way"?
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 28th, 2012 at 3:50:20 AM
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Soopoo, you may have been right at one time, but the +130dogs have kinda fallen on hard times. They're still on the plus side for the year but have been sliding as of late. We'll see. I remain somewhat encouraged since even overall, since 04/26, we have a net win of +635. Of that, the +130dogs are +536.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 28th, 2012 at 3:51:36 AM
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Also, I had said from the beginning that this would be a process. A work in progress. We WILL find a way.........
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 28th, 2012 at 3:56:01 AM
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Just as a matter of catching up, two days ago we had a net loser of -300. Yesterday was a net loss of -118. Our YTD now stands at -560.
The +130dogs had a loss of -100 two days ago and there were no plays yesterday. Its YTD now stands at +572.
The 2Xs group stands at a YTD of -528 and is in danger of getting dropped.
Today's picks are:
Pittsburgh Pirates -105
Chicago White Sox 175
Detroit Tigers 120
San Diego Padres 108
Boston Red Sox EV
The +130dogs had a loss of -100 two days ago and there were no plays yesterday. Its YTD now stands at +572.
The 2Xs group stands at a YTD of -528 and is in danger of getting dropped.
Today's picks are:
Pittsburgh Pirates -105
Chicago White Sox 175
Detroit Tigers 120
San Diego Padres 108
Boston Red Sox EV
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 29th, 2012 at 5:56:41 AM
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A pretty good day after several bad ones. We had a net win yesterday of +403 and that left our YTD at -157. The +130dogs had one pick and that was a winner for +175 and its YTD is now +747. There were no 2Xs plays and its YTD remains at -528.
Today's picks are:
Detroit Tigers -110
Colorado Rockies -132 (2 UNITS)
Today's picks are:
Detroit Tigers -110
Colorado Rockies -132 (2 UNITS)
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 30th, 2012 at 8:01:18 AM
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We ended up with a split but a net win of +90. That left our YTD at -67. There were no +130dogs and its YTD remains at +747. There was one 2Xs play which won for +200 and its YTD is -328.
Today's picks are:
Chicago White Sox 128
Kansas City Royals 130
Houston Astros 136
Texas Rangers -185 (2 UNITS)
Seattle Mariners 133 (2 UNITS)
Today's picks are:
Chicago White Sox 128
Kansas City Royals 130
Houston Astros 136
Texas Rangers -185 (2 UNITS)
Seattle Mariners 133 (2 UNITS)
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
June 30th, 2012 at 10:09:14 AM
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BTW, the Kansas City pick is in the 1st. game of the doubleheader. Always the first game.......
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 1st, 2012 at 7:04:58 AM
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Good day. We had a net win of +166 and our YTD is now +99. The +130dogs had a net win of +66 and its YTD is now +813. The 2Xs play were also a net winner for +66 and it now has a net loss for the YTD of -262. I will be calculating and posting our record since the additional pitching stats were added. I believe it to be pretty good.
Today's picks are:
Washington Nationals -102
Cleveland Indians -111
Minnesota Twins -133 (2 UNITS)
Pittsburgh Pirates 158
Toronto Blue Jays 145 (2 UNITS)
San Francisco Giants -143 (2 UNITS)
Los Angeles Dodgers -146 (2 UNITS)
Today's picks are:
Washington Nationals -102
Cleveland Indians -111
Minnesota Twins -133 (2 UNITS)
Pittsburgh Pirates 158
Toronto Blue Jays 145 (2 UNITS)
San Francisco Giants -143 (2 UNITS)
Los Angeles Dodgers -146 (2 UNITS)
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 1st, 2012 at 8:12:48 AM
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First, our record since the very first major tweak to the formula took place on 04/26/12 is 163 wins and 159 losses (50.62%) for a net of +1,294. During this span of time the +130dogs are a net win of +777 and all others are a net win of +517. At one time, the +130dogs were very far ahead of the others. The gap has obviously narrowed considerably. What I find odd is the fact that we have only 4 more winners than losers, but are up nearly 13 units.
I don't know if the formatting will hold up, but here is the breakdown by day:
Values
Row Labels Sum of +130dogs Sum of Others Sum of Total
Sunday -727 1130 403
Monday 666 -483 183
Tuesday -54 47 -7
Wednesday 603 137 740
Thursday 667 -331 336
Friday -276 -180 -456
Saturday -102 197 95
Grand Total 777 517 1294
I don't know if the formatting will hold up, but here is the breakdown by day:
Values
Row Labels Sum of +130dogs Sum of Others Sum of Total
Sunday -727 1130 403
Monday 666 -483 183
Tuesday -54 47 -7
Wednesday 603 137 740
Thursday 667 -331 336
Friday -276 -180 -456
Saturday -102 197 95
Grand Total 777 517 1294
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 1st, 2012 at 8:18:31 AM
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Since adding the pitching stats on 06/14/12 our record is fairly impressive, however, since it is only a small sampling of 52 games I am going to forego publication of the stats until we've seen more games played. An O-fer today, for example, would wipe out all of the gains. However, I am cautiously optimistic over what I see.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 2nd, 2012 at 5:46:03 AM
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Another good day. Could have been absolutely fantastic if it wasn't for Francisco Cordero and the Toronto Blue Jays...............
Anyway, we had a net win of +500 and our YTD is now a net win of +599. The +130dogs didn't fare very well with a net loss of -300 and its YTD is now +513. The 2Xs plays did well with a net win of +400 and its YTD has pulled into the black with a net win of +138. Things continue to look up and I remain cautiously optimistic. We have had 4 consecutive winning sessions after having had 4 consecutive losing sessions.
If you like dogs, it looks like today is nothin' but................
Today's picks are:
Houston Astros 160
Cleveland Indians 132
Kansas City Royals 150
San Diego Padres 150
Los Angeles Dodgers 110 (2 UNITS)
Anyway, we had a net win of +500 and our YTD is now a net win of +599. The +130dogs didn't fare very well with a net loss of -300 and its YTD is now +513. The 2Xs plays did well with a net win of +400 and its YTD has pulled into the black with a net win of +138. Things continue to look up and I remain cautiously optimistic. We have had 4 consecutive winning sessions after having had 4 consecutive losing sessions.
If you like dogs, it looks like today is nothin' but................
Today's picks are:
Houston Astros 160
Cleveland Indians 132
Kansas City Royals 150
San Diego Padres 150
Los Angeles Dodgers 110 (2 UNITS)
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 3rd, 2012 at 4:27:02 AM
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As they say, "all good things come to an end". A losing day yesterday of a net of -100 which took our YTD to a net win of +499. The 130dogs finally broke out of a slump with a net win of +100 and its YTD is now +613. The 2 Xs play had a net loss of -200 and its YTD is now -62.
Today's picks are (doggies seem to be running wild):
Kansas City Royals 130
Houston Astros 165
Colorado Rockies 140
Today's picks are (doggies seem to be running wild):
Kansas City Royals 130
Houston Astros 165
Colorado Rockies 140
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
July 4th, 2012 at 6:53:53 AM
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A net loss yesterday of -60 which left our YTD at a net win of +439. The +130dogs had a loss of -60 and its YTD is now a net win of +553. There were no 2Xs plays yesterday and its YTD is -62.
As a note, especially to those who have advocated using just the +130dogs and going the other way on all others, I offer up the following current stats. Since 04/26 (sorry that I keep bringing this date up, but it was a rather major change in the formula) we have a net win in total of +1,634. The breakdown stands as a net win for the +130dogs of +517 and a net win for all others of +1,117. Things have certainly turned........
Today's picks are:
Houston Astros 124
Milwaukee Brewers 113 (2 UNITS)
Kansas City Royals 136
Minnesota Twins 225
Chicago White Sox 109 (2 UNITS)
Chicago Cubs 151
Arizona DiamondBacks -185 (2 UNITS)
As a note, especially to those who have advocated using just the +130dogs and going the other way on all others, I offer up the following current stats. Since 04/26 (sorry that I keep bringing this date up, but it was a rather major change in the formula) we have a net win in total of +1,634. The breakdown stands as a net win for the +130dogs of +517 and a net win for all others of +1,117. Things have certainly turned........
Today's picks are:
Houston Astros 124
Milwaukee Brewers 113 (2 UNITS)
Kansas City Royals 136
Minnesota Twins 225
Chicago White Sox 109 (2 UNITS)
Chicago Cubs 151
Arizona DiamondBacks -185 (2 UNITS)
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
