APDave
Joined: Aug 29, 2011
• Posts: 73
November 3rd, 2011 at 8:42:32 AM permalink
So I had a debate with a buddy today what the odds on a 16-0 season for Green Bay should be/actually are. He thinks it'd be 5 to 1 at best, while I can't see it being less than 6 - 1, if not even possibly 10 - 1. Frankly with the number of things that can go wrong, including an injury to Aaron Rodgers or them sitting starters once they're 15 - 0. And this year is definitely showing to be an any given Sunday league.

Curious if anyone knows if this bet exists, and what the odds currently are on it.

Thanks!
ddloml
Joined: Dec 5, 2009
• Posts: 70
November 3rd, 2011 at 9:01:12 AM permalink
Depending on how Detroit does, I don't find it likely that Green Bay will sit starters for the final game of the season against them. It will be difficult for them to win in Detroit on Thanksgiving Day as well.
SONBP2
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
• Posts: 289
November 3rd, 2011 at 9:03:38 AM permalink
I have read that Betonline is offering a future wager that Green Bay will go 16-0, Yes +450, No -700 and that 5dimes is offering Yes +400 and +650 for GB to go 18-0 and win the super bowl.

Both of which I think are terrible odds.
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 22091
November 3rd, 2011 at 9:04:02 AM permalink
I've seen that kind of bet before, but not yet on the Packers. Just give it time.

Here is a crude analysis of that bet:

The Packers have outscored their opponents by an average of 12.8 points this season. Let's just say 13. I show the chances of a 13-point underdog winning are 15.72%. So, that would mean the Packers have a 84.28% chance to win each future game in the a season. The have 9 more games to play so a 0.8428^9=21.45% chance of winning all of them. That would make a fair line only +366.

Flaws in that method are:

1. They seem to have played generally weaker than average teams so far.
2. All future opponents are not going to be equally strong. For example, the chances of winning 2 out of 2 bets with a 50% chance each trial is 25%. But if one chance is 75% and one is 25%, the chances of winning both drop to 18.75%.
3. Aaron Rodgers might get injured.
4. Late in the season they may not have "anything to play for" and rest their good players.

This kind of bet is not my specialty, but if forced, I tend to side with your friend and think that 5 to 1 is about right.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
APDave
Joined: Aug 29, 2011
• Posts: 73
November 3rd, 2011 at 9:14:34 AM permalink
Figured out where to look it up, and SONBP2 is right, it's 4.5 - 1.

My speculative abilities fail, and I find this to be a horrible bet, I would be very suspicious of Green Bay playing for a perfect season, when they'd almost definitely prefer to two-peat as Superbowl champs.
SONBP2
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
• Posts: 289
November 3rd, 2011 at 9:25:54 AM permalink
If you were considering this bet I would start by looking at GB's schedule after they are 10-0. At that point they will have basically wrapped up their division and home field advantage throughout the playoffs even if they would go 3-3 the rest of the way. Their schedule assuming they went 10-0 would be as follows: @Detroit, @NYGiants, Oakland, @KC, Chicago, and Detroit. I believe most if not all of these teams will be likely fighting for playoffs spots and with GB pretty much having everything wrapped up you would believe they will start resting some players or not taking some games as serious at this point, which would lead me to believe they will drop at least one of their last six if not two or three. That being said, laying \$700 to win \$100 doesn't seem worth it either.
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 22091
November 3rd, 2011 at 9:26:31 AM permalink
I now see 5Dimes has these lines on going 16-0 in the regular season:

Yes +430
No -690

The +430 would imply a probability of 18.87%, and the -690, 12.66%. Split that in half and you have 15.77%, which would be a fair line of +534.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
APDave
Joined: Aug 29, 2011
• Posts: 73
November 3rd, 2011 at 9:59:47 AM permalink
I think for me to even ponder this bet it'd have to be about +650. But, the odds will almost surely get worse as Green Bay's record improves.
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
• Posts: 5936
November 3rd, 2011 at 10:10:43 AM permalink
Green Bay's biggest test is the D-Line of Detroit, and whether there secondary is able to keep Megatron in check.

I think the answer is yes to both, and they'll win on Thanksgiving in Motor City, but it'll be interesting.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Nareed
Joined: Nov 11, 2009
• Posts: 11413
November 3rd, 2011 at 10:27:01 AM permalink
Quote: ddloml

Depending on how Detroit does, I don't find it likely that Green Bay will sit starters for the final game of the season against them.

Good point. Should they succumb to the Indianapolis Curse, they shoulnd't even win the Super Bowl.

Does anyone know what's the philosophy of GB's coach on that? For that matter what did they do last season?
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