NFL lotto

Having taken a real good look at the available betting options for the NFL by the Mexican lotto agency, I've concluded it's a sports lottery rather than sports betting. Here's a brief explanation of the game:

There are thirteen games each week. Winners are paid a guaranteed amount, 500,000 pesos, for thirteen correct results, and varying but much smaller amounts for 12 and 11 correct results.

The games have the following options:

1) Local wins by more than 6 points (ie 7 points or more)
2) Either local or visitor wins by up to 6 points
3) Visitor wins by more than 6 points (ie 7 points or more)

You can make multiple choices wer game, either two or three, but only for a certain number of them. The table that explains it is a bit complicated to post here. In general the more triple choices you make, the less double choices you can make, and viceversa. The max for triple choices is 5 with no double choices at all. The most double choices is 8, with no triples at all. The biggest number of combos listed is 4 triples and 2 doubles for 324 combinations.

So let's set the multiple choices aside. I make out the odds of winning as one in 3 to the 13th power, given there is a one in three chance for each of thirteen games, or one in 1,594,323 As lotteries go this isn't so bad, if my numbers are anywhere close to accurate.

Now, if you hit thirteen right results, you partake of a comlpementary bet. This bet is in the form you fill out for the ticket, and the purpose is to guess which team will first score a TD and in what quarter, for one particular game. There is a "no TD" option, which would be rare indeed but not unheard of. This bet pays one million pesos.

The cost per ticket is 10 pesos, which comes out to about US $0.75 at the current rate of exchange. I've been filling out one, no doubles or triples, and I've asked some of my coworkers to fill out three more, which they do at random. That's 4 tickets per week, or a grand total of $3 US.

Why 13 games? Well, the agency started selling a simialr soccer game in the late 70s and had a 39 nnumber matrix (except in sucker the options were local wins, tie, visitor wins). Later they brought out a 39 number lotto game (6 numbers for jackpot), so they coudl sue the same punch card blanks in both games. When they developed the NFL game, they had to use 13 games as well.

Later they moved to instant computer storage, no punch cards needed, and they did indeed increase the numbers of soccer games and lotto numbers. But the NFL game stayed untouched. At most 16 games can be played in one week anyway, and with bye weeks that's rather irregular. So it's till 13 weekly games.

Woudl anyone be itnerested in some remote play? I'd front the money, such as it is, and we'd divide the prize in a way to be determined. PM me if you want to discuss details.

Nareed, I suspect that the 3^13 is not the correct answer, since some/many of the games would have an expected result of one team winning by more than 6 points; i.e., it's not a random, equally-likely event for which bet wins each game. The options may not even be equally-likely in any game, particularly those with a favorite. There are 3^13 possible outcomes, but that doesn't give the likelihood of each.

Also, I suspect that your offer to us violates some U.S. law, so keep a low profile. Or maybe a Mexican law. Have you checked into what is required to set up (legally) an internet-based gambling site?

Quote: Doc

Nareed, I suspect that the 3^13 is not the correct answer, since some/many of the games would have an expected result of one team winning by more than 6 points; i.e., it's not a random, equally-likely event for which bet wins each game. The options may not even be equally-likely in any game, particularly those with a favorite. There are 3^13 possible outcomes, but that doesn't give the likelihood of each.

Sure. But even when you get the best team vs the worst, the result can be surprising. So it's not random, perhaps, but essentially it isn't predictable witha high degree of accuracy.

Quote:

Also, I suspect that your offer to us violates some U.S. law, so keep a low profile. Or maybe a Mexican law. Have you checked into what is required to set up (legally) an internet-based gambling site?

I don't think so. I'm not asking for money, and if I want to give my winnings to some friends who adviced me, well, what's illegal about that?

Come the actual money trasnfers, if any, things can get complicated. But it's not illegal to give money away.