At first I thought you could just say well if you pay 10% less juice, that's the same as getting an extra 10% on the spread, so -9 (-110) would be the same as -10 (+101), but it doesn't work that way. For instance, if the spread were -2 (-110), you couldn't then just say that if you doubled the juice (-220), you could then half the spread (-1), making -2 (-110) = -1 (-220), even though it's technically half/double for both.
So, if any of you are still following along, how does this work? Is there a website or chart or something that when to buy/sell points and for what? Would be great if there were a calculator where you enter in all the lines and their juices, and then it would tell you which to choose.
I just joined 5Dimes, and it's so hard to know which to choose of all your spread options. For instance, for tonight's Bulls game, I chose the -4 +101, but I could have chosen -3.5 (-110). I think I might be too caught up in the juice, choosing better juice over an extra half point. How should I approach this? I know you can't just say well if you pay 10% less juice, that's like getting an extra 10% on the spread, so a 10 point spread would then be like an 11 point spread; can't do it like that.
There is a defined historical distribution for winning margins in different sporting events. The Wiz has posted something like that on NFL games, I think. My guess is that a 4 point favorite will win in the NBA by exactly 4 points around 6% of the time. So 6% of the time you turn a win at -110 into a push. That is weighed against the times you would win more at +101 than at -110. Of course my 6% is just a guess. If it is 2% then clearly laying 4 is better. If it is 10% then clearly laying 3.5 is better.
I'm gonna go Google for now, but I just thought maybe the Wizard would have something better than what I can find.
Some people describe Sports Books as The Sharpies versus The Casinos but its also been described as The Sharpies versus The Fans (With Fans being both idiots with some sort of emotional loyalty to a team and also bettors who merely think they are Sharpies but have insufficient information and insufficient skills to be nimble).
It must be similar to the mega-traders who put their servers in New Jersey to be a few milliseconds closer to the electronic stock exchange. Anyone who is more distant will tele-trade at a disadvantage. Sounds like the arbitrage of points requires a nimble computer program.
Way beyond my computer and its anemic squirrel.
It must be similar to the mega-traders who put their servers in New Jersey to be a few milliseconds closer to the electronic stock exchange. Anyone who is more distant will tele-trade at a disadvantage.
Won't you agree, able to look a few millisecond into the future would be worth moving to New Jersey ? Especially if you trade within milliseconds.
Obviously not everyone has the bankroll (or patience) to deal with line pricing at multiple sites, but I would guess that for the average handicapper, spending 30 extra minutes a day shopping lines would yield a better long term player return than 30 extra minutes a day analyzing contests.