SilentBob420BMFJ
SilentBob420BMFJ
Joined: May 8, 2011
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May 12th, 2011 at 3:56:50 PM permalink
I just joined 5Dimes, and it's so hard to know which to choose of all your spread options. For instance, for tonight's Bulls game, I chose the -4 (+101), but I could have chosen -3.5 (-110). I think I might be too caught up in the juice, choosing better juice over an extra half point.

At first I thought you could just say well if you pay 10% less juice, that's the same as getting an extra 10% on the spread, so -9 (-110) would be the same as -10 (+101), but it doesn't work that way. For instance, if the spread were -2 (-110), you couldn't then just say that if you doubled the juice (-220), you could then half the spread (-1), making -2 (-110) = -1 (-220), even though it's technically half/double for both.

So, if any of you are still following along, how does this work? Is there a website or chart or something that when to buy/sell points and for what? Would be great if there were a calculator where you enter in all the lines and their juices, and then it would tell you which to choose.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO 
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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May 12th, 2011 at 5:11:10 PM permalink
Quote: SilentBob420BMFJ

I just joined 5Dimes, and it's so hard to know which to choose of all your spread options. For instance, for tonight's Bulls game, I chose the -4 +101, but I could have chosen -3.5 (-110). I think I might be too caught up in the juice, choosing better juice over an extra half point. How should I approach this? I know you can't just say well if you pay 10% less juice, that's like getting an extra 10% on the spread, so a 10 point spread would then be like an 11 point spread; can't do it like that.



There is a defined historical distribution for winning margins in different sporting events. The Wiz has posted something like that on NFL games, I think. My guess is that a 4 point favorite will win in the NBA by exactly 4 points around 6% of the time. So 6% of the time you turn a win at -110 into a push. That is weighed against the times you would win more at +101 than at -110. Of course my 6% is just a guess. If it is 2% then clearly laying 4 is better. If it is 10% then clearly laying 3.5 is better.
SilentBob420BMFJ
SilentBob420BMFJ
Joined: May 8, 2011
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May 13th, 2011 at 2:08:07 PM permalink
Anybody have a link for anything to do with buying/selling points? NBA is what I need right now, but NFL will do too. Would be great if there were a calculator where you enter in all the lines and their juices, and then it would tell you which to choose.

I'm gonna go Google for now, but I just thought maybe the Wizard would have something better than what I can find.
TheDoctor
TheDoctor
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June 16th, 2011 at 3:38:38 PM permalink
I'm not sure how your Google session went, but this is the one I use:

The Doctor: www.doctoranddude.com
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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June 16th, 2011 at 4:52:42 PM permalink
Not quite sure what is going on here but I think this is an example of arbitrage involving point spreads.

Some people describe Sports Books as The Sharpies versus The Casinos but its also been described as The Sharpies versus The Fans (With Fans being both idiots with some sort of emotional loyalty to a team and also bettors who merely think they are Sharpies but have insufficient information and insufficient skills to be nimble).

It must be similar to the mega-traders who put their servers in New Jersey to be a few milliseconds closer to the electronic stock exchange. Anyone who is more distant will tele-trade at a disadvantage. Sounds like the arbitrage of points requires a nimble computer program.

Way beyond my computer and its anemic squirrel.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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June 16th, 2011 at 8:52:29 PM permalink
See my tables on buying and selling a half point here. I've studied the alternative lines at 5 Dimes and Pinnacle. My general opinion is they know what they are doing, and the points are more or less fairly priced. There is less juice with the standard line, which is what I always go with.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
MangoJ
MangoJ
Joined: Mar 12, 2011
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June 16th, 2011 at 10:21:00 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff


It must be similar to the mega-traders who put their servers in New Jersey to be a few milliseconds closer to the electronic stock exchange. Anyone who is more distant will tele-trade at a disadvantage.



Won't you agree, able to look a few millisecond into the future would be worth moving to New Jersey ? Especially if you trade within milliseconds.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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June 17th, 2011 at 1:50:10 AM permalink
I think by placing a zillion orders electronically and then electronically cancelling them these traders are not "looking" into the future, they are creating the future.
TheDoctor
TheDoctor
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June 17th, 2011 at 9:50:17 AM permalink
I agree with the Wizard that the alternative lines on 5Dimes and Pinnacle (both pretty sharp books) are usually fairly priced. The more interesting application of these tables is comparing various sites to one another. One of the major advantages of online sports betting vs. live betting (ex. in Vegas) is that you can quickly compare multiple sites and find better lines without having to drive all over town. It's very handy to have a half point calculator for those situations.

Obviously not everyone has the bankroll (or patience) to deal with line pricing at multiple sites, but I would guess that for the average handicapper, spending 30 extra minutes a day shopping lines would yield a better long term player return than 30 extra minutes a day analyzing contests.
The Doctor: www.doctoranddude.com
vaioice
vaioice
Joined: Jul 14, 2011
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July 14th, 2011 at 2:06:52 PM permalink
its not as simple as just #'s. The beauty about capping is in order to be successful ur need to learn new ways to win. what is working this season might not work next season. By the time the "trend" becomes a "trend" it will have lost its value already. and different ppl will have different opinion where the "VALUE" is.

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