+EV, high volatility Kentucky Derby Bet?
May 6th, 2011 at 1:39:49 PM
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Okay so Bodog casino has these three separate bets on the Derby with the following odds:
1) Will any Horse win the 2011 Triple Crown? - Yes +600
2) Will the winner of the 2011 Kentucky Derby win the 2011 Preakness Stakes? - Yes (137th Kentucky Derby Winner Wins 2010 Preakness) +190
3) Will the winner of the 2011 Kentucky Derby win the 2011 Belmont? -
Yes (137th Kentucky Derby Winner Wins 2010 Belmont) - +300
Now in and of themselves these bets are not very good odds imo. But if one is willing to bet that there will be a Triple Crown winner, then obviously events two and three have to occur. If these three events are parlayed onto one ticket, Bodog states one must "Risk $1.00 to Win $80.20." So this makes the there will be a 2011 Triple Crown a +8020 bet if I am not wrong and pretty good +EV though with very high std. deviation obviously...What am I missing here? It seems almost too easy and I am not the type to "discover" +EV bets no matter how hard I seem to try...
EDIT: Just realized this. If this is true, one can bet everything he/she owns on this bet (as long as you trust Bodog to be well capitalized/willing to pay out) if I am not wrong by using this to hedge against a "No Triple Crown" bet in say a regular casino/OTB betting site and hence guarantee a profit since the margin on this bet is so large. This would take care of that pesky std. deviation, while leaving a decent amount of +EV.
1) Will any Horse win the 2011 Triple Crown? - Yes +600
2) Will the winner of the 2011 Kentucky Derby win the 2011 Preakness Stakes? - Yes (137th Kentucky Derby Winner Wins 2010 Preakness) +190
3) Will the winner of the 2011 Kentucky Derby win the 2011 Belmont? -
Yes (137th Kentucky Derby Winner Wins 2010 Belmont) - +300
Now in and of themselves these bets are not very good odds imo. But if one is willing to bet that there will be a Triple Crown winner, then obviously events two and three have to occur. If these three events are parlayed onto one ticket, Bodog states one must "Risk $1.00 to Win $80.20." So this makes the there will be a 2011 Triple Crown a +8020 bet if I am not wrong and pretty good +EV though with very high std. deviation obviously...What am I missing here? It seems almost too easy and I am not the type to "discover" +EV bets no matter how hard I seem to try...
EDIT: Just realized this. If this is true, one can bet everything he/she owns on this bet (as long as you trust Bodog to be well capitalized/willing to pay out) if I am not wrong by using this to hedge against a "No Triple Crown" bet in say a regular casino/OTB betting site and hence guarantee a profit since the margin on this bet is so large. This would take care of that pesky std. deviation, while leaving a decent amount of +EV.
May 6th, 2011 at 6:17:54 PM
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Quote: RememberRemember..... If these three events are parlayed onto one ticket, Bodog states one must "Risk $1.00 to Win $80.20."......one can bet everything he/she owns on this bet (as long as you trust Bodog to be well capitalized/willing to pay out)..........
Bodog have a GB£ 30,000 payout limit on all races. I imagine that this applies to parlays as well.
May 6th, 2011 at 8:32:58 PM
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Seems like a good angle to me. They shouldn't let you parlay bets that have a direct conditional relationship. If they do, I agree that you could set up a hedge by betting against the triple crown win somewhere else. The risk is that Bodog will void your bet if you make a large one and draw attention to the issue
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
May 6th, 2011 at 9:03:33 PM
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You won't be able to parlay the 3 bets together because the outcome of one is dependent on the outcome of another. It's like betting on a 0-0 result in soccer and parlaying it into the "no goal scorer" option of a first goal scorer bet.
They won't let you do it.
They won't let you do it.
