VCU @ 5000:1
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20 members have voted
*IF* you held the ticket, what is the minimum you would you accept in trade at this point? (final 4 beginning tomorrow)
Nice!
FWIW, I voted $1-$499. No way VCU wins it all.
Quote: ItsCalledSoccerWhile not exactly the same thing, this question pretty much describes the gist of derivative markets, speculation, futures, etc.
Nice!
FWIW, I voted $1-$499. No way VCU wins it all.
Do you believe it enough to put up $5k against my $1?
Quote: AyecarumbaDo you believe it enough to put up $5k against my $1?
Wow ... great question.
But the answer is no for the bizarro playing-the-lottery reason. Meaning, I play the lottery even thought it's crappy EV because the big win is so enticing. So the bizarro reason is, even though I would almost certainly win your $1, the downside is so vile that I don't want to risk it.
But here's something I will do. Winner puts the following in his signature line:
"I am clearly more stupid than any man, and I do not have the sense of a man. ICS (or Ayecarumba) is clearly the most intuitive, wise, and accurate sports bettor in history, and my analysis should be used only for wiping other unworthy asses."
Odds: if you win, it's on my sig line for 5,000 weeks. If I win, it's on your sig line for 1 week.
Bet?
EDIT: I meant, loser puts that in his sig line.
Quote: waltomeal$10 ticket out for VCU to win the national championship
Virginia Central University?
Vilanova Cougars United?
Valley Central University.
Quote: FleaStiffVirginia Central University?
Vilanova Cougars United?
Valley Central University.
Virginia Commonwealth University.
Butler barely got past another Virginia school (ODU, or Old Dominion University for the acronym-challenged among us) in the first round, but it's easy to look past an ODU. Once you hit the Final Four you bring your game. And Butler was there last year.
This is like Deal Or No Deal! I'm a gambler and I'd hold the ticket. It only cost 10 bucks.
Quote: ItsCalledSoccerWow ... great question.
But the answer is no for the bizarro playing-the-lottery reason. Meaning, I play the lottery even thought it's crappy EV because the big win is so enticing. So the bizarro reason is, even though I would almost certainly win your $1, the downside is so vile that I don't want to risk it.
But here's something I will do. Winner puts the following in his signature line:
"I am clearly more stupid than any man, and I do not have the sense of a man. ICS (or Ayecarumba) is clearly the most intuitive, wise, and accurate sports bettor in history, and my analysis should be used only for wiping other unworthy asses."
Odds: if you win, it's on my sig line for 5,000 weeks. If I win, it's on your sig line for 1 week.
Bet?
EDIT: I meant, loser puts that in his sig line.
As tempting as it sounds, having your signature line tout my superiority for 96 years is not that appealing, (especially when you just quit the board a few weeks ago.) Also, avargov's pennance still cracks me up.
How about this, I will put up my one week with the "scarlet signature of shame" against your promise to do your best to befriend MKL if he ever returns?
Quote: AyecarumbaAs tempting as it sounds, having your signature line tout my superiority for 96 years is not that appealing, (especially when you just quit the board a few weeks ago.) Also, avargov's pennance still cracks me up.
How about this, I will put up my one week with the "scarlet signature of shame" against your promise to do your best to befriend MKL if he ever returns?
Looks like an interesting proposition. Mr. mkl will return because that is what it appears he does, and someone like that who seems to have only this forum as a source of entertainment will humble himself to the bowels of humanity in 2 week's time. He has no ability at all to absorb hurt and take the high road, and his propensity to go postal is only surpassed by his inability to voluntarily follow through on what he says, no matter how embarrassing or degrading. It is because of this trait that I believe he keeps coming back for more and more punishment. He likes it!
Yes +604
No -750
Let's figure out how much you would have to bet against VCU winning to lock in an equal win either way, and what that win would be. Let x bet the bet.
Win outcome = 50,000 - x<br>
Lose outcome = x*(100/750) = (2/15)x
Set these equal to each other
50000-x = (2/15)x
50000 = (17/15)x
x = 50000×(15/17)
x = $44,117.65
Let see if that is right...
If VCU wins the outcome is $50,000 minus from the Hilton minus $44,117.65 to Pinnacle = $5,882.35
If VCU doesn't win you don't get anything from the Hilton, but the Pinnacle bet will pay $44,117.65 × (100/750) = $5,882.35.
However, the bet against VCU I doubt pays fair odds. If the owner was extremely risk averse, and was eager to sell the ticket, then I think about $6,000 would be a fair. However, I would base the probability of VCU winning on the +604 line that they will win, implying a 100/704 = 14.2% chance. That would make the value of the ticket about $7,100.
This all ignores the tax implications.
Quote: AyecarumbaAs tempting as it sounds, having your signature line tout my superiority for 96 years is not that appealing, (especially when you just quit the board a few weeks ago.) Also, avargov's pennance still cracks me up.
How about this, I will put up my one week with the "scarlet signature of shame" against your promise to do your best to befriend MKL if he ever returns?
Quote: JL2Looks like an interesting proposition. Mr. mkl will return because that is what it appears he does, and someone like that who seems to have only this forum as a source of entertainment will humble himself to the bowels of humanity in 2 week's time. He has no ability at all to absorb hurt and take the high road, and his propensity to go postal is only surpassed by his inability to voluntarily follow through on what he says, no matter how embarrassing or degrading. It is because of this trait that I believe he keeps coming back for more and more punishment. He likes it!
Wow, step away from the boards for a while to earn a living and you hear about it! :)
There's little doubt mkl will return, that's kind of his thing. What makes this prop bet unattractive is the ambiguity as to what "do your best to befriend mkl" means. What I think it means could be far different than what Ayecarumba thinks, and that can't be good when it comes to paying off a bet.
But trying doesn't really work, though, does it? MKL is who he is, but so is everyone else ... yet MKL has no friends, and everyone else does. I don't think effort is the problem when it comes to MKL.
Also, it's not a very fun penalty, is it?
I'm not against taking the bet, but it would help if you, Ayecarumba, tried to define what you mean, and tried to make it more fun.
Quote: ItsCalledSoccerWow, step away from the boards for a while to earn a living and you hear about it! :)
There's little doubt mkl will return, that's kind of his thing. What makes this prop bet unattractive is the ambiguity as to what "do your best to befriend mkl" means. What I think it means could be far different than what Ayecarumba thinks, and that can't be good when it comes to paying off a bet.
But trying doesn't really work, though, does it? MKL is who he is, but so is everyone else ... yet MKL has no friends, and everyone else does. I don't think effort is the problem when it comes to MKL.
Also, it's not a very fun penalty, is it?
I'm not against taking the bet, but it would help if you, Ayecarumba, tried to define what you mean, and tried to make it more fun.
I trust that you are honorable, and will leave it up to you to define what "doing your best" means in the spirit of the wager. If you are looking for an example, I would be satisfied if you could develop your relationship to the point that if you offered to buy MKL a beer at the Triple 7, he would be happy to accept.
As for the "fun", it wouldn't be a penalty if it was easy. Besides, this is VCU we're talking about, I should be lobbying to get the toilet paper dropped... hehe
Quote: AyecarumbaI trust that you are honorable, and will leave it up to you to define what "doing your best" means in the spirit of the wager. If you are looking for an example, I would be satisfied if you could develop your relationship to the point that if you offered to buy MKL a beer at the Triple 7, he would be happy to accept.
As for the "fun", it wouldn't be a penalty if it was easy. Besides, this is VCU we're talking about, I should be lobbying to get the toilet paper dropped... hehe
Thanks for the kind words. The particular example you give, while helpful, is impossible ... not that it can't happen, but that I would have so much control as to make it happen. MKL is a grown man, and I can't force him to do anything. If I "do my best in the spirit of the wager," and yet he refuses to hoist an ale, does that mean you feel the bet would be unsatisfied? That I didn't truly do my best?
I'm not trying to over-engineer the bet to avoid it. But I can't possibly satisfy something that's completely out of my control. And, I don't think it's a stretch to foresee MKL purposely putting me through the ringer in the name of trying to satisfy the lost bet. Cynicism is definitely among his personality traits.
Oh well. We gave it a good try. If we can't come to terms, maybe at least we can have bragging rights.
Quote: ItsCalledSoccerThanks for the kind words. The particular example you give, while helpful, is impossible ... not that it can't happen, but that I would have so much control as to make it happen. MKL is a grown man, and I can't force him to do anything. If I "do my best in the spirit of the wager," and yet he refuses to hoist an ale, does that mean you feel the bet would be unsatisfied? That I didn't truly do my best?
I'm not trying to over-engineer the bet to avoid it. But I can't possibly satisfy something that's completely out of my control. And, I don't think it's a stretch to foresee MKL purposely putting me through the ringer in the name of trying to satisfy the lost bet. Cynicism is definitely among his personality traits.
Oh well. We gave it a good try. If we can't come to terms, maybe at least we can have bragging rights.
I respect your concerns ICS and FWIW, reluctance on MKL's part to help you satisfy the terms would certainly not reflect poorly on you. (If it happened... I sincerely believe that he would respond positively to a sincere effort to reach out, and would not put anyone through the wringer). Perhaps it can be still be a mental exercise on our parts.
I've got some left over "honor" credits from the Blackjack promotion shutdown wager some time back. I'll put up one of those to your 5,000 if you like.
That being said...I think I would take the field against VCU as well.
Quote: avargovWhatever you do man...NEVER get into ICS's back pocket. You will be doomed to a life of shame and ridicule!
That being said...I think I would take the field against VCU as well.
Dude! Your debt was paid in full last December! You're free to change your sig whenever you want!
But yeah ... never get in my back pocket. You don't want Hannibal Lecter ItsCalledSoccer running around in your head.
Quote: AyecarumbaI respect your concerns ICS and FWIW, reluctance on MKL's part to help you satisfy the terms would certainly not reflect poorly on you. (If it happened... I sincerely believe that he would respond positively to a sincere effort to reach out, and would not put anyone through the wringer). Perhaps it can be still be a mental exercise on our parts.
I've got some left over "honor" credits from the Blackjack promotion shutdown wager some time back. I'll put up one of those to your 5,000 if you like.
Cool. I'm afraid I don't know what "honor" credits are. Tell me what they are and I'll decide. It sounds like a fair bet, though ...
Think of it as virtual Monopoly money. It's a convenient way to keep track of wagers where nothing but bragging rights are on the line.Quote: ItsCalledSoccerCool. I'm afraid I don't know what "honor" credits are. Tell me what they are and I'll decide. It sounds like a fair bet, though ...
Quote: AyecarumbaThink of it as virtual Monopoly money. It's a convenient way to keep track of wagers where nothing but bragging rights are on the line.
OK, I'll do that. Good thinking, looking forward to it!
So, the bet is:
If VCU wins the ENTIRE tournament: I owe you 5,000 honor credits.
If any other team wins: you owe me 1 credit.
Right?
Quote: ItsCalledSoccerOK, I'll do that. Good thinking, looking forward to it!
So, the bet is:
If VCU wins the ENTIRE tournament: I owe you 5,000 honor credits.
If any other team wins: you owe me 1 credit.
Right?
That's it. Good luck to us both.
Was this honor credit bet ever paid?Quote: AyecarumbaThat's it. Good luck to us both.
Quote: sunrise089Was this honor credit bet ever paid?
Hehe, yes. I hope ICS didn't parlay it on the Spurs.
