Any book on sports betting says to be serious you need to know enough to bet on baseball. No other sport has a many games or goes on as long. And in summer if you don't bet baseball there is no other real sports action going unless you want to learn foreign sports. I am not learning crickett. Baseball is known to be the statjunkee's heaven. I'm not going to the level of figuring RHP vs LHH in a certain park. I don't have the time. But there is something I notice about team winloss streaks:
1. They are printed in the box scores for eveyone to see
2. They are thus easy to track
3. They rarely reach 10 or more, espically in wins
4. Betting against the winningstreak team should give beter than 11 odds.
So what I plan to do is take last years numbers and count how long the win or loss streaks went as well as if they "borke" home or away more often in a meaningful way. I will number the games 1162 and then put a "W" or "L" for win/loss then "H" or "A" for home/away. Thus the cells in the spreadsheet will look like this:
TEAM: YANKEES
1 W H
2 W H
3 L H
4 W A
5 W A
One team per sheet.
This is where I get stumped. In the next cell I suppose I could put a command say "IF C3 = C4 THEN +1 ELSE 0" for the column. The some kind of running total with an if/then qualifier. Would that work? Then I would need to put the grand totals on a final page, which I might be able to figure out but am stumped before I see it all. So, any ideas on the spreadsheet construction?
Quote: AZDuffman
This is where I get stumped. In the next cell I suppose I could put a command say "IF C3 = C4 THEN +1 ELSE 0"
Yeah, should work, I think. The correct syntax is something like this: "if(c3=c4;d3+1;0)" (I think you may need to replace semicolons with comas depending on which software you use  IIRC, it's semicolons in excel and open office, but comas in google docs). It also seems more logical to use "1" instead of "0", but that's a question of taste :)
Quote: AZDuffmanBut there is something I notice about team winloss streaks:
1. They are printed in the box scores for eveyone to see
2. They are thus easy to track
3. They rarely reach 10 or more, espically in wins
4. Betting against the winningstreak team should give beter than 11 odds.
Why?
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Quote: goatcabinWhy?
If you are going to bet sports it is as good a reason as any. Did a little of it last year and was up over a month.
You can click on any team, and get the schedules and scores for that year, by game
You can then copy and paste the results into a spreadsheet. For example, here is the first 22 games of Toronto's illustrious season last year.
The Win/Loss result is in Column D
The Loss Streak is Column E
The Win Streak is Column F
Rk Tm Opp Result Lose Win
1 TOR TEX L =IF(D10="L",1,0) =IF(D10="W",1,0)
2 TOR TEX W =IF(D11="L",E10+1,0) =IF(D11="W",F10+1,0)
3 TOR TEX W =IF(D12="L",E11+1,0) =IF(D12="W",F11+1,0)
4 TOR BAL W =IF(D13="L",E12+1,0) =IF(D13="W",F12+1,0)
5 TOR BAL W =IF(D14="L",E13+1,0) =IF(D14="W",F13+1,0)
6 TOR BAL W =IF(D15="L",E14+1,0) =IF(D15="W",F14+1,0)
7 TOR CHW L =IF(D16="L",E15+1,0) =IF(D16="W",F15+1,0)
8 TOR CHW W =IF(D17="L",E16+1,0) =IF(D17="W",F16+1,0)
9 TOR CHW L =IF(D18="L",E17+1,0) =IF(D18="W",F17+1,0)
10 TOR CHW W =IF(D19="L",E18+1,0) =IF(D19="W",F18+1,0)
11 TOR LAA L =IF(D20="L",E19+1,0) =IF(D20="W",F19+1,0)
12 TOR LAA L =IF(D21="L",E20+1,0) =IF(D21="W",F20+1,0)
13 TOR LAA L =IF(D22="L",E21+1,0) =IF(D22="W",F21+1,0)
14 TOR KCR W =IF(D23="L",E22+1,0) =IF(D23="W",F22+1,0)
15 TOR KCR W =IF(D24="L",E23+1,0) =IF(D24="W",F23+1,0)
16 TOR KCR L =IF(D25="L",E24+1,0) =IF(D25="W",F24+1,0)
17 TOR TBR W =IF(D26="L",E25+1,0) =IF(D26="W",F25+1,0)
18 TOR TBR L =IF(D27="L",E26+1,0) =IF(D27="W",F26+1,0)
19 TOR TBR L =IF(D28="L",E27+1,0) =IF(D28="W",F27+1,0)
20 TOR BOS L =IF(D29="L",E28+1,0) =IF(D29="W",F28+1,0)
21 TOR BOS L =IF(D30="L",E29+1,0) =IF(D30="W",F29+1,0)
22 TOR BOS L =IF(D31="L",E30+1,0) =IF(D31="W",F30+1,0)
Quote: boymimboYou can test your hypothesis by downloading results from baseballreference.com.
I have always just imported a table into Excel, deleted the columns I did not want and I was set.
baseballreference.com season tables has a streak column at the far right, but it is quite useless IMHO.


+
++
+++
What is that all about?
I use =Len() function with a few IFs and get something like this.
Gm# Streak loss win
1  1 0
2  2 0
3 + 0 1
4 ++ 0 2
5  1 0
6  2 0
7 + 0 1
8  1 0
9 + 0 1
10 ++ 0 2
11  1 0
12 + 0 1
13  1 0
14 + 0 1
15  1 0
16  2 0
17 + 0 1
18  1 0
19  2 0
20  3 0
21  4 0
22  5 0
23 + 0 1
24 ++ 0 2
25 +++ 0 3
Good Luck breaking streaks!
I want to be able to put a summary at the bottom and show how many streaks there were of a given legnth. ie: there were 5 win streaks of 2 games, 6 of 3 games, etc. I am near a total loss on this one. Is there a openoffice command to "rank the modes?" Not even sure if that is the right terminology.
My final goal is to be able to get something like the following. Using any team for an example:
In 2010 there were "x" streaks of at least 1 win in a row
there were "y" streaks of at least 2 wins in a row
there were "z" streaks of at least 3 wins in a row
Then the same for losses, though I am looking more to bet against a winning streak. So a .500 team would have at least 81 streaks of at least 1 win in a row. Then put it all on a summary sheet for all of MLB.
Or am I thinkng on this wrong? My goal is to find when say 50% of winning streaks break.
Quote: AZDuffman
Then the same for losses, though I am looking more to bet against a winning streak.
So a .500 team would have at least 81 streaks of at least 1 win in a row. Then put it all on a summary sheet for all of MLB.
Or am I thinkng on this wrong? My goal is to find when say 50% of winning streaks break.
Spring training around the corner. How are your studies coming?
Just in case you have not figured out the answer to your question.
Yes, your math is off.
81.5 would be the total average of win and lose runs. (streaks)
For a 162 game MLB season, .500 win percentage
Average # of win streaks(run is the math term) is 40.750
Mode 42
SD 3.18
10 million season sim distribution results
w runs freq freq/100
25 2 0.00%
26 7 0.00%
27 22 0.00%
28 99 0.00%
29 406 0.00%
30 1302 0.01%
31 4142 0.04%
32 11425 0.11%
33 28855 0.29%
34 65642 0.66%
35 134208 1.34%
36 247190 2.47%
37 414186 4.14%
38 628217 6.28%
39 862772 8.63%
40 1076148 10.76%
41 1214810 12.15%
42 1242931 12.43%
43 1156223 11.56%
44 975464 9.75%
45 745298 7.45%
46 515560 5.16%
47 323582 3.24%
48 184150 1.84%
49 94106 0.94%
50 44163 0.44%
51 18473 0.18%
52 7069 0.07%
53 2506 0.03%
54 771 0.01%
55 216 0.00%
56 45 0.00%
57 7 0.00%
58 3 0.00%
The expeced number of runs of each length
run EV
1 20.50
2 10.19
3 5.06
4 2.52
5 1.25
6 0.62
7 0.31
8 0.15
9 0.08
10 0.04
I do not use open office, only Excel so I could assist you if you have access to Excel.
My son's friend's father passed away last week and he gave my son his dads laptop. Nothing fancy but a lot of Excel 2007 folders. Says he was into gambling math.
I have looked through it and could not figure out how he did many of his formulas found in his worksheets. To make a long story short, I found all his hidden folders and have found some treasures.
They are in Excel 2007 and would have to be converted back to Excel .xls format instead of .xlsx if you have access to Excel before version 2007.
Here are a few snap shots of what I threw together for the 2009 LA Dodgers season.
Let me know if you are interested and I could send you some formulas or a copy of the worksheet.
This photo shows the distribution of each streak, it was on a different page but could easily be incorporated onto the same worksheet as below. The grey cells are the expected values.
This shows the running count in numbers in columns as well as a graph.
Have fun busting win streaks this season!
Batter Up!