Football betting question

Someone at another forum gave me this idea as a question. It could be for football or basketball.

I'll make up an example. Lets say the line is Detroit +7 vs. Chicago. Does this mean I have a 50/50 chance of winning my bet, regardless of which side I take? I am NOT referring to the 10% vig on the loss, thats not part of my question. For the sake of arguing, we'll say no vig at all. If you say I don't have a 50% of winning, then what is the percent and HOW did you calculate it?


Ken

Quote: mrjjj

Someone at another forum gave me this idea as a question. It could be for football or basketball.

I'll make up an example. Lets say the line is Detroit +7 vs. Chicago. Does this mean I have a 50/50 chance of winning my bet, regardless of which side I take? I am NOT referring to the 10% vig on the loss, thats not part of my question. For the sake of arguing, we'll say no vig at all. If you say I don't have a 50% of winning, then what is the percent and HOW did you calculate it?


Ken

No, it means the bookmaker thinks with that line he will get 50/50 action on each side. There is no way to tell your "chances" of winning since sports is not random and is a human factor. You can track how *you* pick over time, but there is no way to say your % chance of winning pre-event.

I think the Wiz has this on the WoO site. It is a little less than 50/50 because of a push. But at say, -6.5, yes would be 50/50. No need to show a calculation, the side you take will either cover, or not. If so, u win whatever your bet was minus the juice. If not, you lose it all.

'Bout the most simple bet in the whole wide world of gambling!!!

This is why I ask 'waste of time' questions. Two posts and we have two different answers. I also have this question on a couple other boards.

Ken

Quote: mrjjj

I also have this question on a couple other boards.

Ken

We're all very happy for you. Not enough attention at home?

Not two different answers, two different ways of looking at a question. My reply referred to a single once it is made. Other answer seems to deal with sportsbetting in general. Both are correct I think.

And BTW, glad you get your kicks wasting everyones time....

Quote: mrjjj

Someone at another forum gave me this idea as a question. It could be for football or basketball.

I'll make up an example. Lets say the line is Detroit +7 vs. Chicago. Does this mean I have a 50/50 chance of winning my bet, regardless of which side I take? I am NOT referring to the 10% vig on the loss, thats not part of my question. For the sake of arguing, we'll say no vig at all. If you say I don't have a 50% of winning, then what is the percent and HOW did you calculate it?


Ken

Lets take a -6.5 Line. Avoids the push.

There's two ways to look at it.

First you can assume that the bookie has made a fair line, so both sides are equally likely, and it's a coin flip. This is the simple way to look at it, and is probably the easiest way to think about it before we do any analysis. Over time I think games are about 50/50 above and below the line (it might vary depending on the size of the line and whether it's a home dog or not... home under dogs are better than 50% to cover the spread), but overall it's about 50/50.

However, the trick with sports betting is that there's factors which give the bettor some more information, greater than that of a roulette spin. These factors maybe illusory (for example trends on the spreads for teams) or real (knowledge that the Chicago QB is out, and the Lions are getting a player back from injury).

Now there maybe an advantage betting one side or another, and you do your analysis and say "well, there's a 62% chance that the Lions will score 7 more points than the Bears". And this would make this bet a play. Or you might go another way and say "I'd handicap this line at +5.5". Each bettor has their own system (mines the latter, and very rough and ready... but I'm not very good at sports betting, either).

What the percent is will depend on the teams, and no-one really knows what the final value is.

All you know is that in the end the score is 24-21 to the bears, Chicago wins, but the Lions bettors are happy and take home a win. The bookie is happy if he got close to equal money on the book (or more on the Bears than the Lions).

So, no you don't have a 50% chance of winning, it's hard to tell what it actually is, no sports bettors will agree on what the percentage is for any game, so 50% is as good as a guess as any.

Quote: avargov

Not two different answers, two different ways of looking at a question. My reply referred to a single once it is made. Other answer seems to deal with sportsbetting in general. Both are correct I think.

And BTW, glad you get your kicks wasting everyones time....

A) If it is a waste of your time, dont respond. Problem solved.

B) You cant have it both ways (in order to fit in).

I am talking about betting on one game. If it is not 50/50, why?

If it is 50/50, why?

No tricks in my question. Two posters gave their view without insults, very cool BTW.

Ken

Quote: thecesspit

Lets take a -6.5 Line. Avoids the push.


However, the trick with sports betting is that there's factors which give the bettor some more information, greater than that of a roulette spin. These factors maybe illusory (for example trends on the spreads for teams) or real (knowledge that the Chicago QB is out, and the Lions are getting a player back from injury).

Here is one more and I wonder if it could be mathematically accounted for. Some teams are simply more popular. Lets keep it NFL for simplicity. Cowboys, Giants, Packers, Steelers--these are all old-line popular teams. Cardinals, Panthers, Jaguars, Seahawks. These are far less popular teams. I meet Steeler Fans everywhere I go, from Myrtle Beach to the Strip to Southern CA I hear "COOL-STEELERS!" if I wear a Steeler Jersey. So, when the Steelers played the Cardinals in the Superbowl a few years back, would I pay a "Steeler Penalty" on the point spread at Caesars?

Quote: TheNightfly

We're all very happy for you. Not enough attention at home?

If the thread bothers you so much, dont respond. Problem solved.

Ken

Quote: AZDuffman

Here is one more and I wonder if it could be mathematically accounted for. Some teams are simply more popular. Lets keep it NFL for simplicity. Cowboys, Giants, Packers, Steelers--these are all old-line popular teams. Cardinals, Panthers, Jaguars, Seahawks. These are far less popular teams. I meet Steeler Fans everywhere I go, from Myrtle Beach to the Strip to Southern CA I hear "COOL-STEELERS!" if I wear a Steeler Jersey. So, when the Steelers played the Cardinals in the Superbowl a few years back, would I pay a "Steeler Penalty" on the point spread at Caesars?

I'm pretty sure the Chicago lines are always wrong by a point in favour of the Bears. I believe there's more Bears fans than any other team in Vegas (I read somewhere).

And yes, you paid a Steelers penalty. The Superbowl lines are far more based on public perception than any other line.

The effect you refer to definitely exists, and the best thing is, you can take advantage of it, and the books will be happy to see you do it--you'll be helping to balance out their action.

Big-market teams, like New York/Chicago/L.A., etc., get more action than, say, Jacksonville or Indianapolis. Teams the public instantly recognizes, like the Dallas Cowboys, likewise attract more bettors (ploppie: "They're playing the Arizona WHO? I'll bet the mortgage payment!"). In fact, in sports betting in general, I've heard many, many times of the "bet against the Los Angeles Anybody" strategy, preferably implemented just before game time, on the premise that the (Vegas) betting public bets the home team and therefore overinflates the line.

I think it's generally a good strategy to bet against public perception. One place where that strategy HASN'T worked very well is in Super Bowl betting, where the books always have overpriced the favorite, because the public likes to pile money on the "better" team, and generally ignores the pointspread. The favorite has covered inflated spreads more often than not in the Super Bowl, however, in the last 20+ years. The books have gotten hit hard many of those years.