XFL- new rules come into play.
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First, the kickoff is very different. The receiving team lines up at the thirty-yard line, with the defense lining up at the thirty-five. The kicker kicks from his own thirty-five, and no one is allowed to move until the receiver catches the ball. It eliminates the on-side kick.
Another rule change is a three-point conversion from the ten-yard line.
The last rule replaces the onside kick. You line up on your 25-yard line for a fourth and fifteen. Make a first down, and the drive continues.
I watched today because of opening day, The Rock and AJ McCarron. I wasn't expecting crisp football and wasn't disappointed.
I was betting the over on all the games. I thought 38 was too low. I'm thinking they will make adjustments. I had DC and the over, that was a fun game to watch.Quote: billryanOpening weekend for the XFL and the new rules add to the game.
First, the kickoff is very different. The receiving team lines up at the thirty-yard line, with the defense lining up at the thirty-five. The kicker kicks from his own thirty-five, and no one is allowed to move until the receiver catches the ball. It eliminates the on-side kick.
Another rule change is a three-point conversion from the ten-yard line.
The last rule replaces the onside kick. You line up on your 25-yard line for a fourth and fifteen. Make a first down, and the drive continues.
I watched today because of opening day, The Rock and AJ McCarron. I wasn't expecting crisp football and wasn't disappointed.
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Quote: billryanOpening weekend for the XFL and the new rules add to the game.
First, the kickoff is very different. The receiving team lines up at the thirty-yard line, with the defense lining up at the thirty-five. The kicker kicks from his own thirty-five, and no one is allowed to move until the receiver catches the ball. It eliminates the on-side kick.
Another rule change is a three-point conversion from the ten-yard line.
The last rule replaces the onside kick. You line up on your 25-yard line for a fourth and fifteen. Make a first down, and the drive continues.
I watched today because of opening day, The Rock and AJ McCarron. I wasn't expecting crisp football and wasn't disappointed.
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Seems every new football league wants to tinker with things. What with there will be three leagues now they have to have some kind of unique features. I figure that they are good for finding bets though. Like knowing the small schools for the tournament, too much for the books to watch.
Quote: mcallister3200Some analytics fanatic has probably been going nuts trying to figure out optimal decision points of when to go for three, etc. With new rules come interesting new math problems, if you had confidence the league or idea will stick around.
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I don't have much confidence the XFL will survive, but some of the rule changes might. I like the kickoff rules and the 3point conversion
will have a place.
At best, the XFL might be able to merge with the USFL. At worst, it gives exposure to The Rock and Dany as they aim for the 2028 election.
Quote: TigerWuIf they really wanted to make football interesting they wouldn't stop for two minutes every ten seconds. Just keep going until someone scores.
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If you just want to watch actual game action from the snap until the tackle I believe the 3 hours and 30 minutes condenses to 7 minutes.
Quote: TigerWuIf they really wanted to make football interesting they wouldn't stop for two minutes every ten seconds. Just keep going until someone scores.
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It's been done, more or less. It's called rugby.
As of 2/14/23:
4-1 Seattle
5-1 Arlington
11-2 San Antonio
5-1 Vegas
4-1 St Louis
6-1 DC
8-1 Houston
8-1 Orlando
(source: William Hill)
Quote: smoothgrhOdds to win XFL Championship, May 13, 2023
As of 2/14/23:
4-1 Seattle
5-1 Arlington
11-2 San Antonio
5-1 Vegas
4-1 St Louis
6-1 DC
8-1 Houston
8-1 Orlando
(source: William Hill)
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Holy cow. That is HUGE vig they are charging.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: smoothgrhOdds to win XFL Championship, May 13, 2023
As of 2/14/23:
4-1 Seattle
5-1 Arlington
11-2 San Antonio
5-1 Vegas
4-1 St Louis
6-1 DC
8-1 Houston
8-1 Orlando
(source: William Hill)
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Holy cow. That is HUGE vig they are charging.
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What is that, about 33%?
Quote: DRichQuote: SOOPOOQuote: smoothgrhOdds to win XFL Championship, May 13, 2023
As of 2/14/23:
4-1 Seattle
5-1 Arlington
11-2 San Antonio
5-1 Vegas
4-1 St Louis
6-1 DC
8-1 Houston
8-1 Orlando
(source: William Hill)
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Holy cow. That is HUGE vig they are charging.
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What is that, about 33%?
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20.14%. It sure looks worse than that though.
Quote: billryanA better bet would be "Will there be an XFL Championship Game."
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I neglected to mention that the sheet says: All bets are action
Another over. I've been just betting all the overs since I have to run free bets anyway.
Quote: billryanA better bet would be "Will there be an XFL Championship Game."
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Will there be an XFL Championship Game in 2023? Yes.
Will there be an XFL in 2024? Different question...
Speaking of "will there be postseason games," what's the over/under on how many teams will play in non-conference postseason men's college basketball tournaments besides the NCAA and NIT this season? The CBI has already announced its 2023 schedule, but the Basketball Classic website still shows just 2022 information.
Quote: ThatDonGuyQuote: billryanA better bet would be "Will there be an XFL Championship Game."
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Will there be an XFL Championship Game in 2023? Yes.
Will there be an XFL in 2024? Different question...
Speaking of "will there be postseason games," what's the over/under on how many teams will play in non-conference postseason men's college basketball tournaments besides the NCAA and NIT this season? The CBI has already announced its 2023 schedule, but the Basketball Classic website still shows just 2022 information.
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I am surprised that the CBI is still in existence. Lately it seems teams are even turning down invitations to the NIT because it doesn't make financial sense to them.
Quote: tringlomaneQuote: DRichQuote: SOOPOOQuote: smoothgrhOdds to win XFL Championship, May 13, 2023
As of 2/14/23:
4-1 Seattle
5-1 Arlington
11-2 San Antonio
5-1 Vegas
4-1 St Louis
6-1 DC
8-1 Houston
8-1 Orlando
(source: William Hill)
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Holy cow. That is HUGE vig they are charging.
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What is that, about 33%?
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20.14%. It sure looks worse than that though.
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"How is this calculated?"
Vigorish / juice / whatever it's called this week is calculated on the assumption that the total bets on each entry are such that the house will profit the same amount regardless of the result.
In this case, let S be the amount bet on Seattle, A on Arlington, SA on San Antonio, V on Las Vegas, SL on St. Louis, D on DC, H on Houston, and O on Orlando.
Let T be the total amount bet; T = S + A + SA + V + SL + D + H + O
If Seattle wins, the house profit is (A + SA + V + SL + D + H + O) - 4S = (T - S) - 4S = T - 5S
If Arlington wins, it is (S + SA + V + SL + D + H + O) - 5A = (T - A) - 5A = T - 6A
Similarly, the profit for the other six teams is T - 13/2 SA, T - 6 V, T - 5 SL, T - 7 D, T - 9 H, and T - 9 O
These are equal when 5 S = 6 A = 13/2 SA = 6 V = 5 SL = 7 D = 9 H = 9 O
To solve this, find the least common multiple of the eight constants - but since one is not an integer, multiply by 2 in this case to make them all integers:
10 S = 12 A = 13 SA = 12 V = 10 SL = 14 D = 18 H = 18 O
The prime factorizations of the distinct numbers 10, 12, 13, 14, and 18 are {2, 5}, {2, 2, 3}, {13}, {2, 7}, and {2, 3, 3}
There are at most 2 2s, 2 3s, 1 5, 1 7, and 1 13 in each set, so the LCM = 2^2 x 3^2 x 5 x 7 x 13 = 16,380
The amount bet on Seattle and St. Louis is 16,380 / 10 = 1638 each
The amount bet on Arlington and Las Vegas is 16,380 / 12 = 1365 each
The amount bet on San Antonio is 16,380 / 13 = 1260
The amount bet on DC is 16,380 / 14 = 1170
The amount bet on Houston and Orlando is 16,380 / 18 = 910 each
The total bet T = 1638 + 1365 + 1260 + 1365 + 1638 + 1170 + 910 + 910 = 10,256
Since the profits are the same for each team, you only need to check one - say, Seattle
If Seattle wins, the house profit = T - 5 S = 10,256 - 5 x 1638 = 2066
Vig = profit / total bet = 2066 / 10,256 x 100% = 20.1443%
If the book value is under 100 then it's in the player's advantage, and the bookies are called as being "over book".
Seattle | 4/1 | 20.00% |
Arlington | 5/1 | 16.67% |
San Antonio | 11/2 | 15.38% |
Vegas | 5/1 | 16.67% |
St Louis | 4/1 | 20.00% |
DC | 6/1 | 14.29% |
Houston | 8/1 | 11.11% |
Orlando | 8/1 | 11.11% |
Book Value | 125.23% | |
House Edge | 20.14% |
btw I'm watching the Las Vegas game on the internet and notice it's raining. There's no covered seating for the fans so not many people have gone to the ground. Also the kickers keep losing their footing incl missing a 25 yard FG and falling over while making a kickoff.
EDIT - Added some later odds found at https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/xfl/how-to-bet-scoring-rules-2023/
Arlington | 4/1 | 20.00% |
Houston | 4/1 | 20.00% |
St Louis | 9/2 | 18.18% |
DC | 19/4 | 17.39% |
Seattle | 13/2 | 13.33% |
Vegas | 7/1 | 12.50% |
San Antonio | 8/1 | 11.11% |
Orlando | 15/1 | 6.25% |
Book Value | 118.77% | |
House Edge | 15.80% |
I just woke up and read this, that's got to be really bad for my over(dare I look). I wonder if "heavy" action(not even sure what limits they are taking, it's fairly low online) came in on the under just before the game.Quote: charliepatrickbtw I'm watching the Las Vegas game on the internet and notice it's raining. There's no covered seating for the fans so not many people have gone to the ground. Also the kickers keep losing their footing incl missing a 25 yard FG and falling over while making a kickoff.
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Three months before the championship game, Arlington was a 5-1 shot while DC had 6-1 odds.
Quote: smoothgrhIn case anyone missed it, the Arlington Renegades (4-6) beat the DC Defenders (9-1) 35-26 in the 2023 XFL Championship.
Three months before the championship game, Arlington was a 5-1 shot while DC had 6-1 odds.
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Gotta love a team with a losing record winning the championship.
