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billryan
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BleedingChipsSlowly
February 19th, 2023 at 7:03:53 PM permalink
Opening weekend for the XFL and the new rules add to the game.
First, the kickoff is very different. The receiving team lines up at the thirty-yard line, with the defense lining up at the thirty-five. The kicker kicks from his own thirty-five, and no one is allowed to move until the receiver catches the ball. It eliminates the on-side kick.

Another rule change is a three-point conversion from the ten-yard line.
The last rule replaces the onside kick. You line up on your 25-yard line for a fourth and fifteen. Make a first down, and the drive continues.

I watched today because of opening day, The Rock and AJ McCarron. I wasn't expecting crisp football and wasn't disappointed.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
AxelWolf
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February 19th, 2023 at 10:22:36 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

Opening weekend for the XFL and the new rules add to the game.
First, the kickoff is very different. The receiving team lines up at the thirty-yard line, with the defense lining up at the thirty-five. The kicker kicks from his own thirty-five, and no one is allowed to move until the receiver catches the ball. It eliminates the on-side kick.

Another rule change is a three-point conversion from the ten-yard line.
The last rule replaces the onside kick. You line up on your 25-yard line for a fourth and fifteen. Make a first down, and the drive continues.

I watched today because of opening day, The Rock and AJ McCarron. I wasn't expecting crisp football and wasn't disappointed.
link to original post

I was betting the over on all the games. I thought 38 was too low. I'm thinking they will make adjustments. I had DC and the over, that was a fun game to watch.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AZDuffman
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February 20th, 2023 at 2:49:56 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

Opening weekend for the XFL and the new rules add to the game.
First, the kickoff is very different. The receiving team lines up at the thirty-yard line, with the defense lining up at the thirty-five. The kicker kicks from his own thirty-five, and no one is allowed to move until the receiver catches the ball. It eliminates the on-side kick.

Another rule change is a three-point conversion from the ten-yard line.
The last rule replaces the onside kick. You line up on your 25-yard line for a fourth and fifteen. Make a first down, and the drive continues.

I watched today because of opening day, The Rock and AJ McCarron. I wasn't expecting crisp football and wasn't disappointed.
link to original post



Seems every new football league wants to tinker with things. What with there will be three leagues now they have to have some kind of unique features. I figure that they are good for finding bets though. Like knowing the small schools for the tournament, too much for the books to watch.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
DRich
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February 20th, 2023 at 5:38:30 AM permalink
I watched the XFL on Saturday and it was okay. I think at has potential. Sunday there was just too many sports on so I didn't watch the XFL. I watched Golf, Wrestling (Iowa vs Ok st), and NASCAR.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
mcallister3200
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February 20th, 2023 at 7:26:48 AM permalink
Some analytics fanatic has probably been going nuts trying to figure out optimal decision points of when to go for three, etc. With new rules come interesting new math problems, if you had confidence the league or idea will stick around.
billryan
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February 20th, 2023 at 7:35:50 AM permalink
Quote: mcallister3200

Some analytics fanatic has probably been going nuts trying to figure out optimal decision points of when to go for three, etc. With new rules come interesting new math problems, if you had confidence the league or idea will stick around.
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I don't have much confidence the XFL will survive, but some of the rule changes might. I like the kickoff rules and the 3point conversion
will have a place.
At best, the XFL might be able to merge with the USFL. At worst, it gives exposure to The Rock and Dany as they aim for the 2028 election.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
TigerWu
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February 20th, 2023 at 9:06:15 AM permalink
If they really wanted to make football interesting they wouldn't stop for two minutes every ten seconds. Just keep going until someone scores.
SOOPOO
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February 20th, 2023 at 12:01:06 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

If they really wanted to make football interesting they wouldn't stop for two minutes every ten seconds. Just keep going until someone scores.
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If you just want to watch actual game action from the snap until the tackle I believe the 3 hours and 30 minutes condenses to 7 minutes.
billryan
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tringlomane
February 20th, 2023 at 12:33:58 PM permalink
It's thirty to forty seconds between most plays, and the players need every one of those seconds to recover. I don't watch many live games, and by fast-forwarding 30 seconds as soon as the play is over, I can watch most games in under an hour.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
ThatDonGuy
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tringlomane
February 20th, 2023 at 1:50:22 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

If they really wanted to make football interesting they wouldn't stop for two minutes every ten seconds. Just keep going until someone scores.
link to original post


It's been done, more or less. It's called rugby.
billryan
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February 20th, 2023 at 1:54:15 PM permalink
Rugby 7s is football without linemen and downs—thats why they play seven-minute halves.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
smoothgrh
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February 20th, 2023 at 4:33:07 PM permalink
Odds to win XFL Championship, May 13, 2023

As of 2/14/23:

4-1 Seattle
5-1 Arlington
11-2 San Antonio
5-1 Vegas
4-1 St Louis
6-1 DC
8-1 Houston
8-1 Orlando

(source: William Hill)
SOOPOO
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February 20th, 2023 at 5:52:40 PM permalink
Quote: smoothgrh

Odds to win XFL Championship, May 13, 2023

As of 2/14/23:

4-1 Seattle
5-1 Arlington
11-2 San Antonio
5-1 Vegas
4-1 St Louis
6-1 DC
8-1 Houston
8-1 Orlando

(source: William Hill)
link to original post



Holy cow. That is HUGE vig they are charging.
DRich
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February 21st, 2023 at 4:14:38 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: smoothgrh

Odds to win XFL Championship, May 13, 2023

As of 2/14/23:

4-1 Seattle
5-1 Arlington
11-2 San Antonio
5-1 Vegas
4-1 St Louis
6-1 DC
8-1 Houston
8-1 Orlando

(source: William Hill)
link to original post



Holy cow. That is HUGE vig they are charging.
link to original post



What is that, about 33%?
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
billryan
billryan
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February 21st, 2023 at 7:05:39 AM permalink
A better bet would be "Will there be an XFL Championship Game."
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
tringlomane
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February 21st, 2023 at 10:42:14 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: smoothgrh

Odds to win XFL Championship, May 13, 2023

As of 2/14/23:

4-1 Seattle
5-1 Arlington
11-2 San Antonio
5-1 Vegas
4-1 St Louis
6-1 DC
8-1 Houston
8-1 Orlando

(source: William Hill)
link to original post



Holy cow. That is HUGE vig they are charging.
link to original post



What is that, about 33%?
link to original post



20.14%. It sure looks worse than that though.
smoothgrh
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February 23rd, 2023 at 11:05:51 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

A better bet would be "Will there be an XFL Championship Game."
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I neglected to mention that the sheet says: All bets are action
AxelWolf
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February 24th, 2023 at 6:07:34 AM permalink
Thursday night's game. 36.5 o/u

Another over. I've been just betting all the overs since I have to run free bets anyway.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
ThatDonGuy
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February 24th, 2023 at 7:46:31 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

A better bet would be "Will there be an XFL Championship Game."
link to original post



Will there be an XFL Championship Game in 2023? Yes.

Will there be an XFL in 2024? Different question...

Speaking of "will there be postseason games," what's the over/under on how many teams will play in non-conference postseason men's college basketball tournaments besides the NCAA and NIT this season? The CBI has already announced its 2023 schedule, but the Basketball Classic website still shows just 2022 information.
DRich
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February 24th, 2023 at 9:07:23 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: billryan

A better bet would be "Will there be an XFL Championship Game."
link to original post



Will there be an XFL Championship Game in 2023? Yes.

Will there be an XFL in 2024? Different question...

Speaking of "will there be postseason games," what's the over/under on how many teams will play in non-conference postseason men's college basketball tournaments besides the NCAA and NIT this season? The CBI has already announced its 2023 schedule, but the Basketball Classic website still shows just 2022 information.
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I am surprised that the CBI is still in existence. Lately it seems teams are even turning down invitations to the NIT because it doesn't make financial sense to them.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
ThatDonGuy
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ChesterDog
February 24th, 2023 at 9:08:14 AM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

Quote: DRich

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: smoothgrh

Odds to win XFL Championship, May 13, 2023

As of 2/14/23:

4-1 Seattle
5-1 Arlington
11-2 San Antonio
5-1 Vegas
4-1 St Louis
6-1 DC
8-1 Houston
8-1 Orlando

(source: William Hill)
link to original post



Holy cow. That is HUGE vig they are charging.
link to original post



What is that, about 33%?
link to original post



20.14%. It sure looks worse than that though.
link to original post



"How is this calculated?"

Vigorish / juice / whatever it's called this week is calculated on the assumption that the total bets on each entry are such that the house will profit the same amount regardless of the result.

In this case, let S be the amount bet on Seattle, A on Arlington, SA on San Antonio, V on Las Vegas, SL on St. Louis, D on DC, H on Houston, and O on Orlando.
Let T be the total amount bet; T = S + A + SA + V + SL + D + H + O
If Seattle wins, the house profit is (A + SA + V + SL + D + H + O) - 4S = (T - S) - 4S = T - 5S
If Arlington wins, it is (S + SA + V + SL + D + H + O) - 5A = (T - A) - 5A = T - 6A
Similarly, the profit for the other six teams is T - 13/2 SA, T - 6 V, T - 5 SL, T - 7 D, T - 9 H, and T - 9 O
These are equal when 5 S = 6 A = 13/2 SA = 6 V = 5 SL = 7 D = 9 H = 9 O
To solve this, find the least common multiple of the eight constants - but since one is not an integer, multiply by 2 in this case to make them all integers:
10 S = 12 A = 13 SA = 12 V = 10 SL = 14 D = 18 H = 18 O
The prime factorizations of the distinct numbers 10, 12, 13, 14, and 18 are {2, 5}, {2, 2, 3}, {13}, {2, 7}, and {2, 3, 3}
There are at most 2 2s, 2 3s, 1 5, 1 7, and 1 13 in each set, so the LCM = 2^2 x 3^2 x 5 x 7 x 13 = 16,380
The amount bet on Seattle and St. Louis is 16,380 / 10 = 1638 each
The amount bet on Arlington and Las Vegas is 16,380 / 12 = 1365 each
The amount bet on San Antonio is 16,380 / 13 = 1260
The amount bet on DC is 16,380 / 14 = 1170
The amount bet on Houston and Orlando is 16,380 / 18 = 910 each
The total bet T = 1638 + 1365 + 1260 + 1365 + 1638 + 1170 + 910 + 910 = 10,256
Since the profits are the same for each team, you only need to check one - say, Seattle
If Seattle wins, the house profit = T - 5 S = 10,256 - 5 x 1638 = 2066
Vig = profit / total bet = 2066 / 10,256 x 100% = 20.1443%

charliepatrick
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February 25th, 2023 at 6:31:47 PM permalink
Here's the workings - for each wager you look at how much you need to bet to get back (wager+winnings) $100. Then add up how much you have to bet on all selections to guarantee a return of $100. In this instance it gives $125.23, The House Edge can be calulated by looking at how much you get back for each $100 wagered, in this case $79.86, and subtracting this from 100.

If the book value is under 100 then it's in the player's advantage, and the bookies are called as being "over book".
Seattle
4/1
20.00%
Arlington
5/1
16.67%
San Antonio
11/2
15.38%
Vegas
5/1
16.67%
St Louis
4/1
20.00%
DC
6/1
14.29%
Houston
8/1
11.11%
Orlando
8/1
11.11%
Book Value
125.23%
House Edge
20.14%

btw I'm watching the Las Vegas game on the internet and notice it's raining. There's no covered seating for the fans so not many people have gone to the ground. Also the kickers keep losing their footing incl missing a 25 yard FG and falling over while making a kickoff.

EDIT - Added some later odds found at https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/xfl/how-to-bet-scoring-rules-2023/
Arlington
4/1
20.00%
Houston
4/1
20.00%
St Louis
9/2
18.18%
DC
19/4
17.39%
Seattle
13/2
13.33%
Vegas
7/1
12.50%
San Antonio
8/1
11.11%
Orlando
15/1
6.25%
Book Value
118.77%
House Edge
15.80%
AxelWolf
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February 25th, 2023 at 10:50:33 PM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

btw I'm watching the Las Vegas game on the internet and notice it's raining. There's no covered seating for the fans so not many people have gone to the ground. Also the kickers keep losing their footing incl missing a 25 yard FG and falling over while making a kickoff.


link to original post

I just woke up and read this, that's got to be really bad for my over(dare I look). I wonder if "heavy" action(not even sure what limits they are taking, it's fairly low online) came in on the under just before the game.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
smoothgrh
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July 7th, 2023 at 8:20:54 AM permalink
In case anyone missed it, the Arlington Renegades (4-6) beat the DC Defenders (9-1) 35-26 in the 2023 XFL Championship.

Three months before the championship game, Arlington was a 5-1 shot while DC had 6-1 odds.
DRich
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smoothgrh
July 7th, 2023 at 11:28:56 AM permalink
Quote: smoothgrh

In case anyone missed it, the Arlington Renegades (4-6) beat the DC Defenders (9-1) 35-26 in the 2023 XFL Championship.

Three months before the championship game, Arlington was a 5-1 shot while DC had 6-1 odds.
link to original post



Gotta love a team with a losing record winning the championship.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
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