SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 119
  • Posts: 9922
February 9th, 2023 at 7:02:17 PM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: TinMan

(snip)
link to original post


(snip)
So far my best bet (I think) by EV alone is Chiefs to score first at +150.
link to original post


Did you get that price as part of a "boost"/"promo" , or some other reason?
Going by the WoO prop calculator, the estimated EV is almost +20% when using Chiefs +1.5 and Total 50.5.
link to original post



DraftKings puts up some of these opportunities that donít last. You could pick either side at +150. My limit was $10. So they gave me the equivalent of around $2. I think others who bet more get much higher limits.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
  • Threads: 161
  • Posts: 21387
February 9th, 2023 at 11:07:46 PM permalink
Quote: Johnzimbo

Somewhere hidden in one of Axel's posts lies the secret to beating roulette I am pretty sure
link to original post



Candles and cats.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
  • Threads: 114
  • Posts: 5751
February 10th, 2023 at 8:37:40 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: unJon

Axel youíve made the thread unreadable. Put the long lists in spoilers please.
link to original post

Unreadable, I don't know about that. I didn't think of using spoilers.
link to original post


I wouldn't say "unreadable," but it does take up a lot of space if you want to skip over them.

I did notice something strange: you can bet that the Chiefs will score 8 in the first half, and the Eagles will score 3, but you can't bet on an 8-3 score. In fact, since all first half bets are action, if either team has 8 or 11 at halftime, all bets on the two-team score lose.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
  • Threads: 161
  • Posts: 21387
February 10th, 2023 at 10:54:46 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: unJon

Axel youíve made the thread unreadable. Put the long lists in spoilers please.
link to original post

Unreadable, I don't know about that. I didn't think of using spoilers.
link to original post


I wouldn't say "unreadable," but it does take up a lot of space if you want to skip over them.

I did notice something strange: you can bet that the Chiefs will score 8 in the first half, and the Eagles will score 3, but you can't bet on an 8-3 score. In fact, since all first half bets are action, if either team has 8 or 11 at halftime, all bets on the two-team score lose.
link to original post

I agree, unJon's suggestion of spoiler tags is the solution, but as I said, I didn't think of that. I would add those tags, however, I no longer have editing rights. A moderator can feel free to do so.

That begs the question if it was either a delete or keep situation, would we rather have the information or not?

I haven't looked back to notice what you did and haven't put much thought into it. I assume you would have noticed if it was just something that I didn't post/missed?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
  • Threads: 114
  • Posts: 5751
February 10th, 2023 at 1:31:38 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

That begs the question if it was either a delete or keep situation, would we rather have the information or not?
link to original post


Assuming you are talking about your prop posts: definitely a keep, if you ask me.
Mental
Mental
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 544
February 12th, 2023 at 8:52:50 AM permalink
I have $20 on Mahomes throws 2+ TD passes at +100 from a GN promo, max bet $20.

I have couple of $50 parlay bets from MGM with 50% odds boosts.

I have a freeroll from DK to win $57 on tails for the coin toss.

I have the Eagles -6.5 using a $500 free bet from Rivers.

I am still checking my other accounts for more freebies and promo bets.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 119
  • Posts: 9922
February 12th, 2023 at 9:06:10 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

I have $20 on Mahomes throws 2+ TD passes at +100 from a GN promo, max bet $20.

I have couple of $50 parlay bets from MGM with 50% odds boosts.

I have a freeroll from DK to win $57 on tails for the coin toss.

I have the Eagles -6.5 using a $500 free bet from Rivers.

I am still checking my other accounts for more freebies and promo bets.
link to original post



Iím no longer a VIP on DraftKings. Iíll assume that $57 free roll was a VIP thing because I didnít get that offer. OrÖ.. I think NY does NOT allow betting on the coin toss!!!!! Iím wondering which genius politician made that rule!

I have (as of right now) 27 separate bets on the game. Most money to win on Hurts running for 1st TD.
My two free bets Under 3.5 FG/Eagles-1.5 first half parlay and Brown U 79.5 yds/Kelce U 89.5 yds parlay.

My average bet size is a pathetic $13!
Mental
Mental
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 544
February 12th, 2023 at 9:27:33 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: Mental

I have $20 on Mahomes throws 2+ TD passes at +100 from a GN promo, max bet $20.

I have couple of $50 parlay bets from MGM with 50% odds boosts.

I have a freeroll from DK to win $57 on tails for the coin toss.

I have the Eagles -6.5 using a $500 free bet from Rivers.

I am still checking my other accounts for more freebies and promo bets.
link to original post



Iím no longer a VIP on DraftKings. Iíll assume that $57 free roll was a VIP thing because I didnít get that offer. OrÖ.. I think NY does NOT allow betting on the coin toss!!!!! Iím wondering which genius politician made that rule!

I have (as of right now) 27 separate bets on the game. Most money to win on Hurts running for 1st TD.
My two free bets Under 3.5 FG/Eagles-1.5 first half parlay and Brown U 79.5 yds/Kelce U 89.5 yds parlay.

My average bet size is a pathetic $13!
link to original post

Yes. DK VIPs at my tier get $57 plus the free bet for opting in and placing $5700 of free bets. I played through much more than that on BJ for a loss rebate promo so this was an extra 1.5 x $57 in added EV for something that was already +EV. BTW, I won a few grand on BJ, so no 10% loss rebate for me.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
  • Threads: 221
  • Posts: 5632
February 12th, 2023 at 9:33:55 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO



My average bet size is a pathetic $13!


not trying to get personal - but I'm pretty sure that you're a well off person
I think it's great that you can bet small and still enjoy - enough to post about it - so many would be better off if they could do it that way



.
"believe half of what you see and none of what you hear" - Edgar Allan Poe
Mental
Mental
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 544
February 12th, 2023 at 10:01:59 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO



My average bet size is a pathetic $13!

not trying to get personal - but I'm pretty sure that you're a well off person
I think it's great that you can bet small and still enjoy - enough to post about it

I would have to make gigantic bets for it really to make a difference and I'm not willing to do that
so betting at all has become inconsequential
I wish I could say I was like you and still tremendously enjoy it - but that would be a lie - I like analyzing different bets and tracking the results

but the betting itself - winning or losing - meh.
link to original post

Small bettors have some of the biggest edge in online gambling. Just pick up the $5 or $10 or $25 that some casinos offer just for logging in. Do the minimum play through. I can pick up $9 in EV at some sites in under one minute. The edge is > 10%. The record keeping takes me longer than the actual play.

To make a living wage, casinos have typically forced APs to take on more risk. I have not played VP at less than a $10 total bet for many years. All the good opportunities require higher wagers. You cannot generate +EV situation from loss rebates or leaderboards without making large wagers. Sorry, but that is the way it is. It is important to accept this and choose a path that is consistent with your personality, goals, and resources.

AP slot games have been a boon to the modestly bankrolled AP. I have seen APs taking down River Dragons $4900+ jackpots with an 88 cent bet. Many AP slots require less than $100 available cash.

  • Jump to: