Super Bowl 57 Props

Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: TinMan

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So far my best bet (I think) by EV alone is Chiefs to score first at +150.
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Did you get that price as part of a "boost"/"promo" , or some other reason?
Going by the WoO prop calculator, the estimated EV is almost +20% when using Chiefs +1.5 and Total 50.5.
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DraftKings puts up some of these opportunities that don’t last. You could pick either side at +150. My limit was $10. So they gave me the equivalent of around $2. I think others who bet more get much higher limits.

Quote: Johnzimbo

Somewhere hidden in one of Axel's posts lies the secret to beating roulette I am pretty sure
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Candles and cats.

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: unJon

Axel you’ve made the thread unreadable. Put the long lists in spoilers please.
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Unreadable, I don't know about that. I didn't think of using spoilers.
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I wouldn't say "unreadable," but it does take up a lot of space if you want to skip over them.

I did notice something strange: you can bet that the Chiefs will score 8 in the first half, and the Eagles will score 3, but you can't bet on an 8-3 score. In fact, since all first half bets are action, if either team has 8 or 11 at halftime, all bets on the two-team score lose.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: unJon

Axel you’ve made the thread unreadable. Put the long lists in spoilers please.
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Unreadable, I don't know about that. I didn't think of using spoilers.
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I wouldn't say "unreadable," but it does take up a lot of space if you want to skip over them.

I did notice something strange: you can bet that the Chiefs will score 8 in the first half, and the Eagles will score 3, but you can't bet on an 8-3 score. In fact, since all first half bets are action, if either team has 8 or 11 at halftime, all bets on the two-team score lose.
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I agree, unJon's suggestion of spoiler tags is the solution, but as I said, I didn't think of that. I would add those tags, however, I no longer have editing rights. A moderator can feel free to do so.

That begs the question if it was either a delete or keep situation, would we rather have the information or not?

I haven't looked back to notice what you did and haven't put much thought into it. I assume you would have noticed if it was just something that I didn't post/missed?

Quote: AxelWolf

That begs the question if it was either a delete or keep situation, would we rather have the information or not?
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Assuming you are talking about your prop posts: definitely a keep, if you ask me.

I have $20 on Mahomes throws 2+ TD passes at +100 from a GN promo, max bet $20.

I have couple of $50 parlay bets from MGM with 50% odds boosts.

I have a freeroll from DK to win $57 on tails for the coin toss.

I have the Eagles -6.5 using a $500 free bet from Rivers.

I am still checking my other accounts for more freebies and promo bets.

Quote: Mental

I have $20 on Mahomes throws 2+ TD passes at +100 from a GN promo, max bet $20.

I have couple of $50 parlay bets from MGM with 50% odds boosts.

I have a freeroll from DK to win $57 on tails for the coin toss.

I have the Eagles -6.5 using a $500 free bet from Rivers.

I am still checking my other accounts for more freebies and promo bets.
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I’m no longer a VIP on DraftKings. I’ll assume that $57 free roll was a VIP thing because I didn’t get that offer. Or….. I think NY does NOT allow betting on the coin toss!!!!! I’m wondering which genius politician made that rule!

I have (as of right now) 27 separate bets on the game. Most money to win on Hurts running for 1st TD.
My two free bets Under 3.5 FG/Eagles-1.5 first half parlay and Brown U 79.5 yds/Kelce U 89.5 yds parlay.

My average bet size is a pathetic $13!

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: Mental

I have $20 on Mahomes throws 2+ TD passes at +100 from a GN promo, max bet $20.

I have couple of $50 parlay bets from MGM with 50% odds boosts.

I have a freeroll from DK to win $57 on tails for the coin toss.

I have the Eagles -6.5 using a $500 free bet from Rivers.

I am still checking my other accounts for more freebies and promo bets.
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I’m no longer a VIP on DraftKings. I’ll assume that $57 free roll was a VIP thing because I didn’t get that offer. Or….. I think NY does NOT allow betting on the coin toss!!!!! I’m wondering which genius politician made that rule!

I have (as of right now) 27 separate bets on the game. Most money to win on Hurts running for 1st TD.
My two free bets Under 3.5 FG/Eagles-1.5 first half parlay and Brown U 79.5 yds/Kelce U 89.5 yds parlay.

My average bet size is a pathetic $13!
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Yes. DK VIPs at my tier get $57 plus the free bet for opting in and placing $5700 of free bets. I played through much more than that on BJ for a loss rebate promo so this was an extra 1.5 x $57 in added EV for something that was already +EV. BTW, I won a few grand on BJ, so no 10% loss rebate for me.

Quote: SOOPOO

My average bet size is a pathetic $13!

not trying to get personal - but I'm pretty sure that you're a well off person
I think it's great that you can bet small and still enjoy - enough to post about it - so many would be better off if they could do it that way



.

Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: SOOPOO

My average bet size is a pathetic $13!

not trying to get personal - but I'm pretty sure that you're a well off person
I think it's great that you can bet small and still enjoy - enough to post about it

I would have to make gigantic bets for it really to make a difference and I'm not willing to do that
so betting at all has become inconsequential
I wish I could say I was like you and still tremendously enjoy it - but that would be a lie - I like analyzing different bets and tracking the results

but the betting itself - winning or losing - meh.
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Small bettors have some of the biggest edge in online gambling. Just pick up the $5 or $10 or $25 that some casinos offer just for logging in. Do the minimum play through. I can pick up $9 in EV at some sites in under one minute. The edge is > 10%. The record keeping takes me longer than the actual play.

To make a living wage, casinos have typically forced APs to take on more risk. I have not played VP at less than a $10 total bet for many years. All the good opportunities require higher wagers. You cannot generate +EV situation from loss rebates or leaderboards without making large wagers. Sorry, but that is the way it is. It is important to accept this and choose a path that is consistent with your personality, goals, and resources.

AP slot games have been a boon to the modestly bankrolled AP. I have seen APs taking down River Dragons $4900+ jackpots with an 88 cent bet. Many AP slots require less than $100 available cash.