NFL - "win by 3 pts" potential bets

Hi, I just found out I can get the following bet with an online sport-book (see example below).

Note: The game below shows the odds for "winning by exactly 3 points".

Example: 01/09 1:00 PM
473 Cincinnati @ 18/1
474 Cleveland @ 12/1

Any thoughts *** on how I should work / analyze this ?

***: I am already using this link >>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/prop-calculator/ <<< as a rough guide for "working out the estimated chance " .

Thanks

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Update (About 2am, Pac Time)

Here is another one below:

01/09 1:00 PM
453 Chicago @ 20/1
454 Minnesota @ 16/1

Quote: ksdjdj

Hi, I just found out I can get the following bet with an online sport-book (see example below).

Note: The game below shows the odds for "winning by exactly 3 points".

Example: 01/09 1:00 PM
473 Cincinnati @ 18/1
474 Cleveland @ 12/1

Any thoughts *** on how I should work / analyze this ?

***: I am already using this link >>> https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/prop-calculator/ <<< as a rough guide for "working out the estimated chance " .

Thanks

----
Update (About 2am, Pac Time)

Here is another one below:

01/09 1:00 PM
453 Chicago @ 20/1
454 Minnesota @ 16/1
link to original post

I would probably go back through the last 10 seasons and see how many games ended by 3 points, then compare that to the point spread on the game that ended by 3 points.

I show about 16.4% of games end in a margin of victory of 3. Dividing that by two, the probability of any given team winning by 3 is 8.2%, for a fair line of 11.2 to 1. However, that is just an average. It's also based on old data, from about 2000 to 2014. I imagine the probability of a 3-point margin of victory has decreased a little since, with higher scoring games in the NFL. Of course, one should also consider the actual point spread. The closer a team is to being a 3-point favorite, and to a lesser extent, the lower the over/under, the greater the probability of winning by 3.

Bottom line is these lines are on average much higher than 11.2, so I would bet all of them.

By the way, the no three-point margin of victory bet on the Super Bowl I often find to have a small advantage, especially if you shop around for a good line. It's also a bet I've gotten killed on historically.

Not fun fact (for me): In the Super Bowls of 2002, 04, 05, and 08, the Patriots won or lost by three points.

Quote: Wizard

I show about 16.4% of games end in a margin of victory of 3. Dividing that by two, the probability of any given team winning by 3 is 8.2%, for a fair line of 11.2 to 1. (snip).
link to original post

But for a game that you estimate that one team has a 60% chance and the other a 40% chance of winning, then one team would have a 9.8% and the other would have a 6.6% chance of winning by 3 (assuming the above 16.4% estimate is accurate for games that have those "fav vs dog" chance figures I just mentioned)?

Also, I haven't bet on it, but for the game below the odds are now this:

453 Chicago @ 18/1
454 Minnesota @ 9/1

Here is a link to a bet that I had a few minutes ago >>> link .

If you don't want to open the link, it is just a bet I had on the Browns to win by exactly 3 pts against the Steelers @ 16/1 ($17) for tonight's game.

Quote: Wizard

I show about 16.4% of games end in a margin of victory of 3.
link to original post

ksdjdj, looks like you had some good advice on betting on the Raiders to win by 3. May I assume you owe me a beer?

The other factor might be the overtime games which seem more common, normally these would win by 6 or 3 points. btw very exciting game tonight (this morning here), did LAC mess it up by calling a time-out?

Quote: Wizard

Quote: Wizard

I show about 16.4% of games end in a margin of victory of 3.
link to original post

ksdjdj, looks like you had some good advice on betting on the Raiders to win by 3. May I assume you owe me a beer?
link to original post

Yes, but I live in Australia.

Quote: charliepatrick

The other factor might be the overtime games which seem more common, normally these would win by 6 or 3 points. btw very exciting game tonight (this morning here), did LAC mess it up by calling a time-out?
link to original post

I think that could be a factor too. It would be interesting to see how many overtime games are won by 3 points.
Also, LAC messed up with the time-out.

Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: Wizard

Quote: Wizard

I show about 16.4% of games end in a margin of victory of 3.
link to original post

ksdjdj, looks like you had some good advice on betting on the Raiders to win by 3. May I assume you owe me a beer?
link to original post

Yes, but I live in Australia.

Then it sounds like you owe him a VB or God forbid, a Foster's.

Quote: DRich

Quote: ksdjdj

Quote: Wizard

Quote: Wizard

I show about 16.4% of games end in a margin of victory of 3.
link to original post

ksdjdj, looks like you had some good advice on betting on the Raiders to win by 3. May I assume you owe me a beer?
link to original post

Yes, but I live in Australia.

Then it sounds like you owe him a VB or God forbid, a Foster's.
link to original post

I don't think I have ever had a Foster's but a VB is the worst one that I have ever had.

It's been a decade or more, but I remember Foster's being basically okay. It kind of reminded me of Budweiser, but with just a little bit more body.

Quote: Mission146

It's been a decade or more, but I remember Foster's being basically okay. It kind of reminded me of Budweiser, but with just a little bit more body.
link to original post

the couple of times that i have been to austrailia they basically laugh at the notion that we think Fosters is their main beer. The times i have been there most were drinking VB (Victoria Bitters) but that was many years ago.

Quote: Mission146

It's been a decade or more, but I remember Foster's being basically okay. It kind of reminded me of Budweiser, but with just a little bit more body.
link to original post

the couple of times that i have been to austrailia they basically laugh at the notion that we think Fosters is their main beer. The times i have been there most were drinking VB (Victoria Bitters) but that was many years ago.

Quote: charliepatrick

The other factor might be the overtime games which seem more common, normally these would win by 6 or 3 points. (snip)
link to original post

They seem to take that into account for games that do go to overtime***

Below are some of the odds available for the Cardinals @ Rams game:

Cards by 3: $23 (+2200)

No Overtime: $1.04 (-2500)
*** Overtime: $13.25 (+1225)

Cards by 3 and No Overtime: $29 (+2800)
*** Cards by 3 and Overtime: $56 (+5500)

No Successful 2 pt conversion: ~$1.27 (-370)
Successful 2 pt conversion: $3.70 (+270)

Cards by 3 and No Successful 2 pt conversion: $41 (+4000)
Cards by 3 and Successful 2 pt conversion: $46 (+4500)
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My guess is that both the "no's and Cards by 3" are good value? (as well as the regular "Cards by 3")

id say bucs by 3. think they could get far but squeak through some games like this vs eagles.

Steelers may also scare chiefs too. would look at the odds on sportsbetting3.com for both of those.

Quote: Haloreece

id say bucs by 3. think they could get far but squeak through some games like this vs eagles.

Steelers may also scare chiefs too. would look at the odds on sportsbetting3.com for both of those.
link to original post

Using a link to a betting site after just 5 posts…..not cool

I have just been "fiddling around" with the "same game multi" feature today, to see if I can possibly get more EV out of it and I noticed this situation (see below):

Rams to win by 3 and the game goes over 51.5 @ 55/1
Rams to win by 3 and the game goes under 56.5 @ 28/1


Note 1: When you combine the odds above you get about 181/10
Note 2: There is also a chance of winning on both bets (with a chance to "middle" with the 5 points).
Note 3: I can currently get the Rams to win by 3 @ 18/1 with the same book
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Edit: As soon as I finished writing this post, they changed the odds to 50/1 and 28/1.

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I just got this on the Bills game (looks better value than the Rams, so I had this bet first)

Bills by exactly 3 and over 57.5 @ 50/1 ($51)

Bills by exactly 3 and under 64.5 @ 28/1 ($29)

Note 1: When you combine the odds above you get about 1748/100
Note 2: There is also a chance of winning on both bets (a chance to "middle" with the 7 point difference between the over and under).
Note 3: I can currently get the Bills to win by 3 @ 18/1 with the same book.

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I just missed out on "middling" the Rams game, the bets were:

1: "Rams by 3 and over 51.5" @ 50/1
2: "Rams by 3 and under 56.5^^^" @ 28/1

^^^: I was tossing up last night whether to take "Rams by 3 and Under 58.5" @ 25/1, but I decided to have the above bet instead : (