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What do you think and why?

Quote:AsswhoopermcdaddyTime to open Pandora's box. Do you think it is better to combination bet or permutation bet in sports? Let's assume you're doing a parlay on a series of teams (events). You have a greater than 70% accuracy rate but less than 90%. So you will pick correctly 7-9 wins out of 10, but always lose some %.

What do you think and why?

link to original post

Accuracy of 70-90%? Are these money line bets? Or just a silly hypothetical on even money bets? If someone could really pick better than 70% on even money bets just minimize variance and spread as much money as you have on as many of these near locks as you can.

Quote:AsswhoopermcdaddyTime to open Pandora's box. Do you think it is better to combination bet or permutation bet in sports?

I am familiar with the difference between permutation and combination, but what are "combination bets" and "permutation bets" in terms of sports parlays? The only sports bets I can think of off the top of my head where they differentiate between combinations and permutations are quinellas and exactas in horse racing.

A quick search shows that "permutation bet" doesn't mean what I think it means - it sounds more like what the British call an "accumulator bet", which is actually a series of parlays and individual bets. For example, if there are three games involved (A-D, B-E, C-F), a permutation bet could be these seven bets:

A bet on just A, a bet on just B, and a bet on just C

An A/B parlay, an A/C parlay, and a B/C parlay

An A/B/C parlay

In Britain, there is a six-way bet called a Heinz which is like a Pick Six on steroids; in addition to the six-horse parlay, you bet every possible parlay of 2 through 5 of the horses. It gets its name from the fact that there are a total of 57 bets.

Still, what's a "combination bet"? The only online reference I found says it is just another name for a permutation bet.

Quote:SOOPOOQuote:AsswhoopermcdaddyTime to open Pandora's box. Do you think it is better to combination bet or permutation bet in sports? Let's assume you're doing a parlay on a series of teams (events). You have a greater than 70% accuracy rate but less than 90%. So you will pick correctly 7-9 wins out of 10, but always lose some %.

What do you think and why?

link to original post

Accuracy of 70-90%? Are these money line bets? Or just a silly hypothetical on even money bets? If someone could really pick better than 70% on even money bets just minimize variance and spread as much money as you have on as many of these near locks as you can.

link to original post

These are real moneyline bets, with varying odds. I had two really good weeks picking 9/10, and a third 7/10 week. I don't feel I had a good optimization. I think I need to also vary bet size with total parlay odds when betting. It's a pain punching in all the combinations. I've used combinatorics mostly in lieu of permutations to eliminate duplicates.

When you say minimize variance, are you saying don't do the parlays and just bet straight with higher dollar amounts? When running the combinations, one loss can be made up by the other bets, but I feel there is profit being left on the table.

Quote:ThatDonGuyQuote:AsswhoopermcdaddyTime to open Pandora's box. Do you think it is better to combination bet or permutation bet in sports?

I am familiar with the difference between permutation and combination, but what are "combination bets" and "permutation bets" in terms of sports parlays? The only sports bets I can think of off the top of my head where they differentiate between combinations and permutations are quinellas and exactas in horse racing.

A quick search shows that "permutation bet" doesn't mean what I think it means - it sounds more like what the British call an "accumulator bet", which is actually a series of parlays and individual bets. For example, if there are three games involved (A-D, B-E, C-F), a permutation bet could be these seven bets:

A bet on just A, a bet on just B, and a bet on just C

An A/B parlay, an A/C parlay, and a B/C parlay

An A/B/C parlay

In Britain, there is a six-way bet called a Heinz which is like a Pick Six on steroids; in addition to the six-horse parlay, you bet every possible parlay of 2 through 5 of the horses. It gets its name from the fact that there are a total of 57 bets.

Still, what's a "combination bet"? The only online reference I found says it is just another name for a permutation bet.

link to original post

Thatdonguy - I am referring to a very simply list of 10 picks. Under a choose combination function, let's say it's 10 choose 5 vs. a permutation ladder of 10x9x8x7x6.

Which is better?

Quote:AsswhoopermcdaddyThatdonguy - I am referring to a very simply list of 10 picks. Under a choose combination function, let's say it's 10 choose 5 vs. a permutation ladder of 10x9x8x7x6.

Which is better?

link to original post

Again, I am not quite sure what it is you are trying to do.

It sounds like you have made picks for 10 games.

Let's assume you have picked the following NFL teams to win:

Atlanta, Buffalo, Carolina, Denver, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Las Vegas, Minnesota, New England, and Philadelphia.

Use the first letters (A, B, C, D, I, K, L, M, N, P) to indicate the teams.

Now, in terms of the teams you bet on, describe:

(a) a combination bet;

(b) a permutation bet / "permutation ladder."

Quote:ThatDonGuyQuote:AsswhoopermcdaddyThatdonguy - I am referring to a very simply list of 10 picks. Under a choose combination function, let's say it's 10 choose 5 vs. a permutation ladder of 10x9x8x7x6.

Which is better?

link to original post

Again, I am not quite sure what it is you are trying to do.

It sounds like you have made picks for 10 games.

Let's assume you have picked the following NFL teams to win:

Atlanta, Buffalo, Carolina, Denver, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Las Vegas, Minnesota, New England, and Philadelphia.

Use the first letters (A, B, C, D, I, K, L, M, N, P) to indicate the teams.

Now, in terms of the teams you bet on, describe:

(a) a combination bet;

(b) a permutation bet / "permutation ladder."

link to original post

That's correct. So let's choose 7 teams (7/10 for accuracy) and use a 10 Choose 7 combination formula to list all combinations. Or alternatively, Let's do the permutations of 10x9x8x7x6x5x4. Using the combinatorics, I eliminate duplicate pairings. Using permutations I get all potential groupings of 7, which includes duplicates.

I've been using this:

https://planetcalc.com/3757/

to generate my combinations. This seems grossly inefficient and suboptimal. Thoughts?

how is the permutation betting different than combination betting but just more money on each combo?Quote:AsswhoopermcdaddyQuote:ThatDonGuyQuote:AsswhoopermcdaddyThatdonguy - I am referring to a very simply list of 10 picks. Under a choose combination function, let's say it's 10 choose 5 vs. a permutation ladder of 10x9x8x7x6.

Which is better?

link to original post

Again, I am not quite sure what it is you are trying to do.

It sounds like you have made picks for 10 games.

Let's assume you have picked the following NFL teams to win:

Atlanta, Buffalo, Carolina, Denver, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Las Vegas, Minnesota, New England, and Philadelphia.

Use the first letters (A, B, C, D, I, K, L, M, N, P) to indicate the teams.

Now, in terms of the teams you bet on, describe:

(a) a combination bet;

(b) a permutation bet / "permutation ladder."

link to original post

That's correct. So let's choose 7 teams (7/10 for accuracy) and use a 10 Choose 7 combination formula to list all combinations. Or alternatively, Let's do the permutations of 10x9x8x7x6x5x4. Using the combinatorics, I eliminate duplicate pairings. Using permutations I get all potential groupings of 7, which includes duplicates.

I've been using this:

https://planetcalc.com/3757/

to generate my combinations. This seems grossly inefficient and suboptimal. Thoughts?

link to original post

btw I'm not sure of the exact rules but your bets tend to be calculated in the order the races are run, but mathematically it doesn't matter. If there's a non-runner your bet(s) just carry on to the next selected race (with some Tote bets the wager goes on the lowest numbered (SP) favourite). If you've already reached the maximum payout the other selection(s) still have to win to get the payout.

There's also the concept of "Forecast", "Exacta" or "Straight Forecast" which usually applies to all horse races with 3 or more runners. Historically the Tote offered "Forecast" where you had to select the first two and they could finish in the top 2 in either order. Bookmakers created the "Computer Straight Forecast" (CSF) where the odds payable were calculated using a complicated formula based on the SP (Starting Prices); you had to pick first two finishers in the correct order. These days the Tote offers the "Exacta" bet, which is the same. Thus you might have to do a "Reverse" Forecast if you wanted to cater for them finishing in either order.

On big races, such as the Grand National, there is a bet based on the first three.

Quote:AsswhoopermcdaddyQuote:ThatDonGuyQuote:Asswhoopermcdaddy

Which is better?

link to original post

Again, I am not quite sure what it is you are trying to do.

It sounds like you have made picks for 10 games.

Let's assume you have picked the following NFL teams to win:

Atlanta, Buffalo, Carolina, Denver, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Las Vegas, Minnesota, New England, and Philadelphia.

Use the first letters (A, B, C, D, I, K, L, M, N, P) to indicate the teams.

Now, in terms of the teams you bet on, describe:

(a) a combination bet;

(b) a permutation bet / "permutation ladder."

link to original post

That's correct. So let's choose 7 teams (7/10 for accuracy) and use a 10 Choose 7 combination formula to list all combinations. Or alternatively, Let's do the permutations of 10x9x8x7x6x5x4. Using the combinatorics, I eliminate duplicate pairings. Using permutations I get all potential groupings of 7, which includes duplicates.

I've been using this:

https://planetcalc.com/3757/

to generate my combinations. This seems grossly inefficient and suboptimal. Thoughts?

link to original post

So a combination bet is all 120 7-team parlays?

If so, then a permutation bet is all 120 7-team parlays repeated 5040 times.

Unless you want to bet 5040 times as much as you wanted, go with the combination bet.

The planetcalc app may look suboptimal, but if you enter 10 teams and tell it to generate all 7-team combinations, it will generate the correct set of 120.