redietz
redietz
Joined: Jun 5, 2019
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October 11th, 2021 at 3:01:21 PM permalink
So I played the single game tonight, using Jackson as the 1.5X and then filling in with Taylor, Murray, Andrews and Watkins.

I guess this would be considered a reach of a lineup without using Wentz, but I didn't see a way to construct anything of better value with him. Taylor may get stoned by the Ravens defense, but that was my choice. We'll see how it goes. If Wentz throws two TD passes, a distinct possibility, this lineup is dead meat.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
mwalz9
mwalz9
Joined: Feb 7, 2012
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October 11th, 2021 at 3:27:21 PM permalink
Quote: redietz

So I played the single game tonight, using Jackson as the 1.5X and then filling in with Taylor, Murray, Andrews and Watkins.

I guess this would be considered a reach of a lineup without using Wentz, but I didn't see a way to construct anything of better value with him. Taylor may get stoned by the Ravens defense, but that was my choice. We'll see how it goes. If Wentz throws two TD passes, a distinct possibility, this lineup is dead meat.
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I played too. I also used Lamar as the MVP 1.5x. I paired him with Wentz, Pittman, Murray, and Hines.
redietz
redietz
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October 11th, 2021 at 3:37:39 PM permalink
Pittman is the underrated sleeper. If Wentz connects with Pittman once, you are in.

I looked at Pittman as a first TD possibility, which I may play after three shots of Jack Daniels once a year. But he was just 11-1 most places, and that whole prop category is worse than playing roulette with five zeroes. Maybe 10 years ago, there were reasonable numbers, but not lately.

I like your lineup more than mine.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
SOOPOO
SOOPOO 
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October 11th, 2021 at 4:52:14 PM permalink
Quote: mwalz9

Quote: unJon

Quote: mwalz9

I see value in it. I feel the true odds of me knowing more than a random about baseball is better than -125!
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There you go. And it does sound fun. I was just posting to point out that a 25 cent line is worse than a 10 cent line (and more than “barely”!)
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I'm a don't player at craps. Laying -110, -125, isnt a big deal to me if there's value.

Ive laid -400 on money line favorites Ive felt were 99.9% winners.
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99.9% winners are not -400. Please post in advance any team you think has a 99.9% chance to win and is only -400. I won’t hold my breath.
mwalz9
mwalz9
Joined: Feb 7, 2012
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October 11th, 2021 at 4:53:52 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: mwalz9

Quote: unJon

Quote: mwalz9

I see value in it. I feel the true odds of me knowing more than a random about baseball is better than -125!
link to original post



There you go. And it does sound fun. I was just posting to point out that a 25 cent line is worse than a 10 cent line (and more than “barely”!)
link to original post



I'm a don't player at craps. Laying -110, -125, isnt a big deal to me if there's value.

Ive laid -400 on money line favorites Ive felt were 99.9% winners.
link to original post



99.9% winners are not -400. Please post in advance any team you think has a 99.9% chance to win and is only -400. I won’t hold my breath.
link to original post



I said a team I felt was a 99.9% winner. Not a true 99.9% winner. I'm not the best odds or statistics guy in here, by a long shot, but I'm also not stupid.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO 
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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October 11th, 2021 at 4:57:25 PM permalink
Quote: mwalz9

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: mwalz9

Quote: unJon

Quote: mwalz9

I see value in it. I feel the true odds of me knowing more than a random about baseball is better than -125!
link to original post



There you go. And it does sound fun. I was just posting to point out that a 25 cent line is worse than a 10 cent line (and more than “barely”!)
link to original post



I'm a don't player at craps. Laying -110, -125, isnt a big deal to me if there's value.

Ive laid -400 on money line favorites Ive felt were 99.9% winners.
link to original post



99.9% winners are not -400. Please post in advance any team you think has a 99.9% chance to win and is only -400. I won’t hold my breath.
link to original post



I said a team I felt was a 99.9% winner. Not a true 99.9% winner. I'm not the best odds or statistics guy in here, by a long shot, but I'm also not stupid.
link to original post



My point was that you ‘think’ a team should win 99.9% of the time but more likely is between 75 and 80% if you have to lay -400.
gordonm888
Administrator
gordonm888 
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October 11th, 2021 at 5:20:37 PM permalink
I'm reading this thread carefully, because I'm interested in this subject and want to learn.

The people I know who play these kinds of 1:1 fanduels contests seem to be pretty knowledgable and put a fair amount of effort into being knowledgable. And everyone presumably has access to the same internet articles and free 'tips.' So where, in general, does the edge come from? Is it developing some key insight on an undervalued player, or understanding what options an opposition defense will likely shut down, or just hoping for a clueless opponent?
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
mwalz9
mwalz9
Joined: Feb 7, 2012
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October 11th, 2021 at 5:29:57 PM permalink
My matchup for tonight has now been set my opponent has Taylor & Watkins. I have Ptitman and Hines. The rest of our lineup is the same those are the only differences.
redietz
redietz
Joined: Jun 5, 2019
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October 11th, 2021 at 5:31:16 PM permalink
I suggest you read my blog entry listed in one post and then dig up the exposes on fantasy sports. The main "edge" in most of these tournament contests has been an economy of scale melded to insider access to what percent of the general population has taken what players. In the none-single-entry contests, which feature the vast majority of the money available, cartels enter literally thousands of entries to cover most likely winning rosters, aided by roster optimizing programs.

Now head to head is a different animal, and that is what mwalz is tackling. Assuming the other people you are up against are truly randomly chosen, you are pitting your knowledge and judgement against someone else's, and that can be a good deal. No roster optimizing program can currently out-think an expert evaluating a game being played in the snow, for example.

Quick note: Five minutes into the game, I am right on the cashing cusp, sitting 1000th out of 7,000. Wentz got credit for a 75-yard TD pass to Taylor, which makes it virtually impossible for me to cash for serious money tonight.
"You can't breathe dead hippo waking, sleeping, and eating, and at the same time keep your precarious grip on existence."
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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October 11th, 2021 at 5:38:11 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

I'm reading this thread carefully, because I'm interested in this subject and want to learn.

The people I know who play these kinds of 1:1 fanduels contests seem to be pretty knowledgable and put a fair amount of effort into being knowledgable. And everyone presumably has access to the same internet articles and free 'tips.' So where, in general, does the edge come from? Is it developing some key insight on an undervalued player, or understanding what options an opposition defense will likely shut down, or just hoping for a clueless opponent?
link to original post

I just saw something (perhap John Oliver). They had some stats that suggested a significant lion share of the money won on those sites are won by a very small percentage of the same people.

That's scary and suggests to me you have to be very very good.

This would be a good research project and artical for Mission to tackle.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

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