ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
August 11th, 2021 at 4:21:48 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

I wonder what the odds of picking 16 NFL games correctly is if you picked the favored team in all the games. There's always a few sad sack teams, etc.


Assuming 57.5% *** average winning chance for the home-team, the (fair) odds for picking the fav. would be about 7000/1 in 16 games.

***: "...in the NFL, home teams usually win in between 55 and 60 percent of the time..." (According to the first link below)

https://www.lineups.com/articles/how-important-is-home-field-advantage-in-the-nfl/

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2021/1/6/22216167/nfl-playoffs-home-field-advantage-covid-19-restrictions (here is another link i thought was interesting, even though I didn't use it for the above answer)
Joeman
Joeman 
Joined: Feb 21, 2014
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
August 11th, 2021 at 5:18:19 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

I wonder what the odds of picking 16 NFL games correctly is if you picked the favored team in all the games. There's always a few sad sack teams, etc.

It seems to me that Week 1 games result in more upsets than in the subsequent weeks of the regular season. I think some teams are just not as prepared for their opener as others are, regardless of talent. Also, there are obviously no tapes of previous games, which would help to level the playing field for coordinators trying to come up with a game plan.

Heck, the Jaguars won their Week 1 game last year.

Disclaimer: This is just casual observation, I have no numbers to back this up.
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