AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 224
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January 29th, 2021 at 8:40:40 AM permalink
This was discussed briefly on GambleOn and is an interesting question.

What odds would you need to get on the coin flip prop to consider making a bet? Not talking about making a "fun" bet where you hardly care, but as a prop you want to win over time.

Sure, mathematically +101 would give you an edge, but what moneyline would it take to get you to lay a few bucks.

NOTE: Assume it is not part of a parlay of any kind. Just a straight up prop.

DISCUSS
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
DogHand
DogHand
Joined: Sep 24, 2011
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January 29th, 2021 at 9:07:02 AM permalink
AZDuffman,

Interesting question.

A major consideration would be the frequency of the wagers. For example, if I have to wait a week between bets (think football), I'd need a larger edge than if I could bet 100 times per hour (think blackjack). If I could bet 10,000 times per hour (think USPaperGames' hypothetical slot machine), then I'd be satisfied with a very small edge, particularly considering the low variance of the outcomes.

I suppose for the three scenarios outlined above, I'd play with minimum edges of around 10%, 1%, and 0.01%.

Dog Hand

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