unJon
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January 23rd, 2020 at 7:36:16 PM permalink
My dad still talks about someone he knew that jaked Superb Owl XIII. (Do other people call a middle a Jake?)
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
ksdjdj
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January 23rd, 2020 at 11:08:15 PM permalink
For the SB I had a $100*** on the 49ers (-3) @ +150, for the AFC/NFC game I had $300 on NFC (-3) @ +150, and for the first score a TD for both games combined I had $400 @ +156^^^.

***: I plan to bet about $300 in total on the 49ers, but I will wait and see what the player injuries are closer to game day, before I commit myself to a bigger bet.

^^^: $1.60 each leg (or about -167 per leg).
Wizard
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January 24th, 2020 at 6:00:53 AM permalink
Quote: EdCollins

Is this the best thread to talk about the prop bets... or should we start another one?



I think we should start another one. If none else does, I'll try to get some prop sheets and post pictures of them later today.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
AZDuffman
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January 24th, 2020 at 6:04:32 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

I always lean to the under in the Super bowl because the public enjoys betting the over and very few of them will bet the under.



Podcast last night said the over is being taken about 20:1 vs the under this year. Shootout will skin the bookies.
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Johnzimbo
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January 24th, 2020 at 10:29:20 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I think we should start another one. If none else does, I'll try to get some prop sheets and post pictures of them later today.



Kindly requesting South Point 😁
EdCollins
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January 24th, 2020 at 10:36:21 AM permalink
Quote: Johnzimbo

Kindly requesting South Point 😁

Try this address:

https://www.vsin.com/odds/super-bowl-prop-bets/
SOOPOO
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January 24th, 2020 at 1:40:13 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Podcast last night said the over is being taken about 20:1 vs the under this year. Shootout will skin the bookies.



I don't understand this. Why didn't they start line at around 57 to get equivalent money on both sides?
Ayecarumba
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January 24th, 2020 at 2:26:46 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I don't understand this. Why didn't they start line at around 57 to get equivalent money on both sides?



If they started at 57, maybe the action would be lopsided for the under. The books need to attract bettors, but it also helps when the loser's action is bigger than the winner's. 7 or 8 touchdowns in a game with two of the top 10 defenses is a tall order.
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Wizard
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January 24th, 2020 at 4:41:24 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I don't understand this. Why didn't they start line at around 57 to get equivalent money on both sides?



Somebody has to throw out the first number and let the world bet into it. I think the number they put out was a pretty good one and don't fault them for it. Still don't get why it moved so much.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
onenickelmiracle
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January 24th, 2020 at 10:41:20 PM permalink
This is tempting, to the point of too good to be true. I'm tempted, and I never bet happily. There are only a few times I feel good about sports betting NFL and usually am tempted on wins to impulse bet the next week and I fail. I'm a dog better the majority of the time. I'm sure the odds are good I'll be a forum lemming on the under, with no other usual inclinations to ever bet on the big game.
I am a robot.
SOOPOO
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January 25th, 2020 at 7:06:12 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Somebody has to throw out the first number and let the world bet into it. I think the number they put out was a pretty good one and don't fault them for it. Still don't get why it moved so much.



You are not a 'regular fan' then. The perception is that KC will score on every possession when they have Mahomes/Watkins/Hill/Kelce all healthy, like they do now. They watched the last two games. KC has a great O, and an average D. Casual fans overestimate the 'strength' of an O, and discount the value of a D.
The number they put out may have been a good one for someone who is cold and calculating and analytic like you are, but you are not the average bettor. My number would have gotten a more even distribution of bets.

If Tiger Woods is scheduled to have a match with Xander Schauffle, I can show you all the data in the world that it is an even match up. You don't think the odds start at 2-1 in favor of Tiger?
TigerWu
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January 29th, 2020 at 10:55:09 AM permalink
Is there a strategy for the Superbowl Squares game under the following conditions:

Each square costs $1. The score is noted at the end of each quarter and the winner of each quarter gets 25% of the total take. Is there some ideal number of squares to buy?
SOOPOO
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January 29th, 2020 at 11:20:15 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Is there a strategy for the Superbowl Squares game under the following conditions:

Each square costs $1. The score is noted at the end of each quarter and the winner of each quarter gets 25% of the total take. Is there some ideal number of squares to buy?



No. Unless your guy is skimming something off the top, the squares are no house edge/no player advantage. EV for 1 square is zero. EV for 6 squares is zero. Etc....
Ayecarumba
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January 29th, 2020 at 11:53:01 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Is there a strategy for the Superbowl Squares game under the following conditions:

Each square costs $1. The score is noted at the end of each quarter and the winner of each quarter gets 25% of the total take. Is there some ideal number of squares to buy?



51?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
ksdjdj
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February 2nd, 2020 at 2:27:54 PM permalink
LeSean McCoy is out at about 2:15 PM (pac time)
charliepatrick
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February 2nd, 2020 at 2:34:32 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

...total still has upward pressure on it. Up to 54.5 in some places...

Not sure what it is in the US but betfair now has 52.5. (1hr before kick off) ( https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/american-football/market/1.167654034 )
unJon
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February 2nd, 2020 at 2:39:53 PM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

Not sure what it is in the US but betfair now has 52.5. (1hr before kick off) ( https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/american-football/market/1.167654034 )



Yeah it started falling Friday. 53 is what I’m seeing now.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
ksdjdj
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February 2nd, 2020 at 3:16:26 PM permalink
It may even fall to 52 soon (the offshore average total, at least). Pinnacle is currently*** 52.5 @ -110 for the under, and -101 for the over.
I managed to get U54.5, but I had to take it as a double with the Chiefs -1.0 @ $3.80.
At the time that I had the bet, the total was 54 (if I wanted to have a normal/single bet on the total).

***: correct at the time of this post
smoothgrh
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February 2nd, 2020 at 7:09:43 PM permalink
Congratulations to Under bettors!

I was rooting for you!
smoothgrh
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February 2nd, 2020 at 7:10:41 PM permalink
Oh wait, it’s not over yet!!!
smoothgrh
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February 2nd, 2020 at 7:12:17 PM permalink
NOW congratulations!
unJon
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February 2nd, 2020 at 7:19:17 PM permalink
Opening line of 51.5. Not too shabby, Vegas.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
DRich
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February 3rd, 2020 at 12:50:05 PM permalink
I bet under 54 on Sunday morning in Vegas.
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EdCollins
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February 3rd, 2020 at 1:09:16 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I bet under 54 on Sunday morning in Vegas.

I drove out there Saturday, from Southern California, to do just that... bet on the Under. So I also bet the Under, also at 54. I also thought there was some value there, as had been discussed here earlier. 54 points is a bunch of points for an NFL game, especially with a team like San Francisco that is likely to take a lot of time off the clock, with their run game.

I was hoping to find 54.5, but at the four or five different casinos I went to, it was not to be... 54 everywhere.
Ayecarumba
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February 3rd, 2020 at 1:34:01 PM permalink
Quote: EdCollins

I drove out there Saturday, from Southern California, to do just that... bet on the Under. So I also bet the Under, also at 54. I also thought there was some value there, as had been discussed here earlier. 54 points is a bunch of points for an NFL game, especially with a team like San Francisco that is likely to take a lot of time off the clock, with their run game.

I was hoping to find 54.5, but at the four or five different casinos I went to, it was not to be... 54 everywhere.



Congrats on the wins DRich and Ed!

I don't know about Mahomes getting the MVP though. His two interceptions really put KC in the hole. If it wasn't for the KC defense playing lights out, and Garoppolo being Garoppolo in crunch time, they would have lost the game badly.
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Ayecarumba
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February 3rd, 2020 at 4:33:41 PM permalink
There were painfully long stoppages for advertising. I think it makes this game substantially different than others during the season.
I didn't watch most of the halftime show, so I don't know what I missed, but here are the ones that I remember off the top of my head. Please feel free to add and comment:

Memorable and Good: MC Hammer Cheetos, Hyundai Smaht Pahk

Meh: Planter's Baby Mr. Peanut; Google Old Dude, The guy with the stained shirt in a Bud/Tide ad; Big Snickers hole;

Memorable because it was bad: Hyundai Genesis ad with some wannabe celebrities; Hard Rock hot mess

I don't remember the others, but Mrs. Carumba commented that she didn't like the "heavy" ones.

It was interesting to me how similar the Trump and Bloomberg ads were.
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Joeman
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February 4th, 2020 at 9:22:55 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

I don't know about Mahomes getting the MVP though. His two interceptions really put KC in the hole. If it wasn't for the KC defense playing lights out, and Garoppolo being Garoppolo in crunch time, they would have lost the game badly.

Yeah, I think if there is no clear-cut outstanding player, they just give the MVP to the winning QB by default. I could have seen it going to Williams instead with his 104 Rushing, 29 Receiving, & 2 TD's.
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DRich
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February 4th, 2020 at 11:16:30 AM permalink
Nevada sports books won 12.1% on the Super Bowl. I believe that is the second highest amount ever held. It is amazing how much money people throw away on parlays and prop bets with high holds. If everyone was just betting the sides and totals the holds would be close to 2.6%.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
unJon
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February 4th, 2020 at 11:18:37 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Nevada sports books won 12.1% on the Super Bowl. I believe that is the second highest amount ever held. It is amazing how much money people throw away on parlays and prop bets with high holds. If everyone was just betting the sides and totals the holds would be close to 2.6%.

I would have thought this high hold was more about the under hitting with the public so very weighted to the over (even with a lot of Sunday money hitting the under).
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
DRich
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February 4th, 2020 at 11:24:47 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

I would have thought this high hold was more about the under hitting with the public so very weighted to the over (even with a lot of Sunday money hitting the under).



You may be right on this game specifically, I wish they would break down how much was bet on the sides, total, parlays, and prop bets.

Last years game between the Patriots and the Rams was also bet heavily on the over and the score was 13 to 3. That game held 7.4%

The game two years ago between Patriots and Philadelphia only held 0.7% but that game did go over.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Ayecarumba
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February 4th, 2020 at 12:10:12 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Nevada sports books won 12.1% on the Super Bowl. I believe that is the second highest amount ever held. It is amazing how much money people throw away on parlays and prop bets with high holds. If everyone was just betting the sides and totals the holds would be close to 2.6%.



I'm curious how much of the action represented local regional support for a San Francisco cover, or moneyline win. Do they report Reno sportsbook holds separately?
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DRich
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February 4th, 2020 at 12:21:38 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

I'm curious how much of the action represented local regional support for a San Francisco cover, or moneyline win. Do they report Reno sportsbook holds separately?



Not that I am aware of. I think they only publish the consolidated state of Nevada numbers.
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charliepatrick
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February 4th, 2020 at 1:04:16 PM permalink
Interesting read - there was a bad beat was those who bet on the rushing yards by the QB who had made it over only to lose 15 yards during the last three plays when kneeling. https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/sports-columns/todd-dewey/las-vegas-sportsbooks-ride-under-super-bowl-total-to-banner-day-1949729/

https://www.casino.org/news/nevada-sportsbooks-won-super-bowl-with-near-record-handle-hold/ gives the numbers quoted earlier but also says New Jersey books lost and mentions the bad beat.
Quote:

Nevada’s Super Bowl success stands in stark contrast to New Jersey’s futility. The Garden State’s handle for the NFL’s biggest game was $54.28 million, and sportsbooks there lost $4.28 million, marking the second straight year they bled cash on the Super Bowl.

...

Prior to the game, the over/under on rushing yards for Kansas City Chiefs quarterback and eventual Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes was as high as 36.5 yards before settling at 32.5 to 33.5. In dollar terms, that was the most bet prop across the country.

Late in the game, Mahomes had 44 yards rushing. But with the Chiefs in possession of the ball and the 49ers out of timeouts, the quarterback kneeled down to run out the clock on three consecutive snaps, trimming a combined 15 yards off his rushing total while creating an infamous “bad beat” for gamblers and a win for the books.

DRich
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February 5th, 2020 at 4:55:32 PM permalink
I just heard an interview with a director at Westgate sports book and he said that 60%-65% of the handle was on the prop bets.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
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