unJon
unJon
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January 22nd, 2020 at 8:17:37 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

There are 16 games per team in a season only. However, I feel going back a season the data gets a bit stale.



I think over 16 games, that averages out. I recall AFC vs. NFC bets on the Super Bowl before the season started and the point spread was low, like 2.5. I don't recall who it favored. My point being both conferences are about equally strong.



I think it would be more defensible to say it “averages out” if you ran your analysis based on median rather than mean.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Wizard
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Wizard 
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January 22nd, 2020 at 9:28:30 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

I think it would be more defensible to say it “averages out” if you ran your analysis based on median rather than mean.



That's a fair point, the over/under is supposed to be a median, not the mean, as I'm calculating. To that, I would say the median is probably only a point or two less. Might make a good Ask the Wizard question.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
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Wizard 
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January 22nd, 2020 at 9:39:30 AM permalink
To reply to myself, here is a count of all points scored from the 2000 to 2011 seasons.

Total points Count
3 2
4 0
5 0
6 2
7 0
8 2
9 16
10 8
11 0
12 14
13 50
14 8
15 36
16 106
17 48
18 14
19 106
20 98
21 50
22 102
23 266
24 132
25 82
26 180
27 286
28 86
29 226
30 304
31 228
32 128
33 342
34 284
35 196
36 232
37 488
38 270
39 184
40 334
41 460
42 148
43 356
44 374
45 288
46 182
47 352
48 322
49 182
50 218
51 384
52 238
53 166
54 186
55 256
56 76
57 174
58 204
59 150
60 56
61 146
62 126
63 76
64 80
65 130
66 86
67 42
68 62
69 100
70 30
71 56
72 42
73 56
74 28
75 42
76 24
77 22
78 12
79 24
80 22
81 0
82 10
83 12
84 6
85 10
86 10
87 8
88 4
89 4
90 2
91 2
92 0
93 0
94 0
95 2
96 4
97 0
98 0
99 2
100 0
101 0
102 0
103 0
104 0
105 0
106 2


The average points scored is 42.93.
The median is 42.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
michael99000
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unJon
January 22nd, 2020 at 10:09:54 AM permalink
In a league where teams play completely different schedules and everyone doesn’t play everyone, I don’t think using averages is accurate.

So yes, the 49ers gave up 19 points a game this season. But what would that figure be if they’d played the Chiefs 16 times? What was their average given up when facing offenses that score 28 a game ?

If for example, the average SF regular season opponent scored 23 a game , while the chiefs average 28 a game, then you have to assume that SF will give up more than 19 when facing the chiefs.
Johnzimbo
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Joeman
January 22nd, 2020 at 10:10:04 AM permalink
Seems weird there was not a 7-0 game but two games had 8 total points scored.
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
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January 22nd, 2020 at 10:16:14 AM permalink
What is really weird is, after a quick look, all the number of matches were even. Perhaps if team A beat team B then each match has been tallied twice under A plays B and then B plays A.

btw does it make any difference that today, I'm guessing here, there would tend to be more 2-pt conversions and missed extra points.
unJon
unJon
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January 22nd, 2020 at 10:18:14 AM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick


btw does it make any difference that today, I'm guessing here, there would tend to be more 2-pt conversions and missed extra points.

Yes. Don’t take too much away from this data since it ends in 2011.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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January 22nd, 2020 at 11:50:33 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

There are 16 games per team in a season only. However, I feel going back a season the data gets a bit stale...



I was thinking of playoff games too.

Injuries to key players have to affect scoring. I don' t know if the injuries average out across all the teams. Some seem to consistently have more than others during the season, while contenders in the playoffs have healthy rosters.

Since you are only forecasting one game, if you only consider games with more similar circumstances than differences (e.g., grass vs. turf, all key players healthy, both teams with winning records, etc.), would you get a better line? There are lots of factors, but I don't know how easy it is to get accurate and easy to parse data.

What if you only consider playoff/championship games?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
SOOPOO
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January 22nd, 2020 at 2:34:48 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

I was thinking of playoff games too.

Injuries to key players have to affect scoring. I don' t know if the injuries average out across all the teams. Some seem to consistently have more than others during the season, while contenders in the playoffs have healthy rosters.

Since you are only forecasting one game, if you only consider games with more similar circumstances than differences (e.g., grass vs. turf, all key players healthy, both teams with winning records, etc.), would you get a better line? There are lots of factors, but I don't know how easy it is to get accurate and easy to parse data.

What if you only consider playoff/championship games?



I'd start by eliminating all games that were played in snow. I'd eliminate all games that one team had zero incentive to win and rested regular starting QB. If this game is on grass, I'd only count games played on grass. And vice-versa of course. Including the ridiculously snowy Bills game (remember snow angels on the one touchdown?) just skews the number down and has almost zero correlation with a game played in a dome or sunny Florida.

Most importantly for this game, including games where Mahomes didn't play, is, as my wife likes to say, useless as tits on a turtle.....
gordonm888
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January 22nd, 2020 at 2:40:11 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

I saw it reported that about 90% of the money bet so far is on the over.



This is the key point that refutes Ed Collins assertion about how the line is set to balance the public's wagers. If the betting is 90/10 than why didn't the books shift the line already???

What I observe is that each week there are several games in which the public's wagers are lopsided (on the spread, or less frequently on points.) The meaning of lopsided?? Maybe greater than 65/35 or > 70/30. Why do the books allow this to happen; i.e. why didn't they shift the line?

The answer is two fold.
1. The books pay attention to the "sharps" far more than to the general public. The wagering of the "sharps" is what principally drives shifts in the line.

2. If the books have a number of lines that the public is betting in a lopsided way then the side that the public is heavily wagering on had better lose with a frequency of 50% or more - otherwise the books will take a bath. This is especially true in the SB where wagering is so heavy.

If the books observe that 90% of the wagers are on OVER and 10% are on UNDER, don't you think that the books believe that UNDER is going to win >50%?? Because the vig won't help the books that much if the public is right and the points are over.
So many better men, a few of them friends, were dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things lived on, and so did I.

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