Poll

3 votes (50%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
2 votes (33.33%)
3 votes (50%)
1 vote (16.66%)
1 vote (16.66%)
No votes (0%)
2 votes (33.33%)
2 votes (33.33%)

6 members have voted

Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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Thanks for this post from:
Rigondeaux
January 2nd, 2020 at 8:08:14 PM permalink
A non-forum member asked me about the odds of the following William Hill parlay card. All games are based on the Wild Card weekend, except the winning conference in the Super Bowl.



The following table shows my analysis of each leg winning.

Bet Fair line Prob. Win
NOS -8.5 -7.5 47.78%
Min +8.5 8.5 52.22%
Hou -135 57.45%
Bills 135 42.55%
NEP -205 67.21%
Titans 205 32.79%
Sea -118 54.13%
Phil 118 45.87%
LSU -200 66.67%
Clemson 200 33.33%
AFC -130 56.52%
NFC 130 43.48%


For the probability of the Vikings winning, I looked at the probability of a 7.5 underdog winning with 8.5 points, using my NFL Spread Calculator.

The money lines were simply from averaging the favorite and underdog money lines at 5dimes. Yes, they did have money lines on the winning conference in the Super Bowl.

Given the requirement to bet one of the first two in the list, the best picks are Min +8.5, Patriots, and LSU. The probability of all three of them winning is 52.22% * 67.21% * 66.67% = 23.40%.

Getting 4 for 1, the expected value is -6.4%. So, no good.

I welcome all comments.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
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Thanks for this post from:
IndyJeffrey
January 2nd, 2020 at 8:35:53 PM permalink
The next Jeopardy! online quiz is Jan 28-30. I encourage you all to give it a try.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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Thanks for this post from:
Forager
January 3rd, 2020 at 7:26:40 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

The next Jeopardy! online quiz is Jan 28-30. I encourage you all to give it a try.



Quit hijacking!! :)
Living longer does not always infer +EV
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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January 3rd, 2020 at 7:27:23 AM permalink
Great post Wizard, thank you for posting that.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
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January 3rd, 2020 at 8:30:30 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

A non-forum member asked me about the odds of the following William Hill parlay card. All games are based on the Wild Card weekend, except the winning conference in the Super Bowl.


I don't see a bet for the Super Bowl - just for the "Pro Football Championship Game." Strange that they won't say Super Bowl, but have no problems using other NFL trademarks.
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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January 3rd, 2020 at 8:34:40 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

I don't see a bet for the Super Bowl - just for the "Pro Football Championship Game." Strange that they won't say Super Bowl, but have no problems using other NFL trademarks.



The NFL is famously litigious over use of the Suberb Owl trademark.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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January 3rd, 2020 at 7:33:18 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Great post Wizard, thank you for posting that.



Thanks!
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
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January 4th, 2020 at 7:03:54 AM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quit hijacking!! :)



Not only is it in the poll, but he specifically said "all comments welcome"! I do believe he started the new J! thread from my answering the poll question. So there! Lol....
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.

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