Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
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June 6th, 2019 at 11:31:31 AM permalink
I got a chuckle at "non-refundable".

Maybe you would have better success picking a "consultant" by having potential partners PM you 10 - 20 selections ahead of the weekend, then seeing who has the best record?

I think you still need to decide on your comfort with risk. A strong case was made above that the maths support shooting the moon since the entry price is "free".
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
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June 6th, 2019 at 12:13:46 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

WatchMeWin.

Danm, how long does it take you to google search and make some Sh*t up? (-;



Actually you are just not worth my time.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
TumblingBones
TumblingBones
Joined: Dec 25, 2016
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June 6th, 2019 at 2:25:40 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

You are making a free bet, while the 'consultant' gets to make, through you, an ordinary bet, seemingly with conditions that make it worse than an ordinary bet... such as losing on pushes and not getting your original wager back on wins, plus ... well, correct me if I am wrong so far.


I'm sort of viewing this as an exercise in applied game theory. My thought in constructing this was that unless there was some small risk to the consultant, there would be no way to determine who actually had confidence in their track-record. At the same time, the risk/reward ratio should be heavily tilted in the consultant's favor. That's why they get 90% of any winnings. I truly don't expect any large bids (if any at all). Probably a few dollars at most. The purpose of the bidding is psychological, not financial. But to be completely honest, at this point I am more interested in how people approach the problem than I am in making what a few bucks. At the core of all this is the problem you and others have addressed: how to assign an expected value to this offer? Or another way to put it: I have the offer.... what's it actual worth to someone?

that said, I'm not adverse to some tweaks based on feedback. In the event of a push, the bid will be refunded.
My goal of being well informed conflicts with my goal of remaining sane.
TumblingBones
TumblingBones
Joined: Dec 25, 2016
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June 6th, 2019 at 2:32:07 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

I got a chuckle at "non-refundable".

Maybe you would have better success picking a "consultant" by having potential partners PM you 10 - 20 selections ahead of the weekend, then seeing who has the best record?

I think you still need to decide on your comfort with risk. A strong case was made above that the maths support shooting the moon since the entry price is "free".


If you have that much confidence in the "shoot the moon" strategy, why not submit a bid?
My goal of being well informed conflicts with my goal of remaining sane.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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June 6th, 2019 at 4:42:14 PM permalink
shoot the moon makes no sense if it is not a free bet [for what is normally offered]
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
sodawater
sodawater
Joined: May 14, 2012
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June 6th, 2019 at 5:10:29 PM permalink
Two additional thoughts for this thread:

1. TB, your "bid" scheme would create incentive for the bidder to maximize his value at the expense of your value. The whole setup is incorrect.

2. Wizard has already covered this topic on his site. See the promotional chips strategy section: https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/promotional-chips/

Quote: Wizard


If unrestricted, the player should make a long-shot wager, preferably on a single number in roulette.



The house edge on any given bet is negligible compared to the value gained by going for longshots.

You don't need a bid system. Just look into any future or props bet with about 50 to 1 odds, pick one you like, and that's it.
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
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June 7th, 2019 at 6:04:53 AM permalink
Quote: TumblingBones

I received an offer from Borgota Sports for a $250 Risk Free First Bet promotion. My problem is that I know absolutely zilch about sports betting. Also, other than watching the Super Bowl, the only sport I follow on a regular basis curling. I am therefore coming at this in total ignorance of how to play this The fine print is as follows:

- Download the BorgataSports app and create a new account
- Place a 1st bet of $25 or more and if your bet loses, get a refund up to $250 in cash back.
- First sports wager must be made within 7 days of signing up for account
- First sports wager outcome must be settled within 7 days of the date you placed the wager

Any suggestions?



Did you sign up yet? If you are opting to go for the gusto, I will offer giving you my picks ABSOLUTELY FREE! No guarantee , but if you want to take a free shot at making 20-1 up to 100-1 long shot, I would give you my picks for whatever day to choose. I hit many of my 4,5,6 team parlays, however, I also just miss by 1 or 2 teams when I do miss. No hidden agenda. You put it out there, so here is your prayer answered. #Im Very Good
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
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June 7th, 2019 at 12:49:02 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Did you sign up yet? If you are opting to go for the gusto, I will offer giving you my picks ABSOLUTELY FREE! No guarantee , but if you want to take a free shot at making 20-1 up to 100-1 long shot, I would give you my picks for whatever day to choose. I hit many of my 4,5,6 team parlays, however, I also just miss by 1 or 2 teams when I do miss. No hidden agenda. You put it out there, so here is your prayer answered. #Im Very Good



I thought I'd give you a glimpse of my ticket from last night so you have an idea of the parlays I'm talking about. I typically put in one or two parlays in a day after I have won on the craps table. I play my parlays with a portion of my winnings.

I had to get my ticket out of the trash because it was a loser, nevertheless it will give you an idea. I won five out of six games on the parley. The only game that lost was a run line bet, texas. My team won but they did not win by 2 runsj, which is what I bet. The payout woyld have been around 33 to 1.

http://imgur.com/r25KYgM
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
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June 7th, 2019 at 1:41:38 PM permalink
Well, it appears the bidding has opened at $0. Anybody else?
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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June 7th, 2019 at 1:54:46 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Well, it appears the bidding has opened at $0. Anybody else?

I'm sill waiting for him to post up what teams and the lines he had on his 8 team parlay win. Not sure why the payout odds were so low.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

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