Thread Rating:

Poll

6 votes (37.5%)
2 votes (12.5%)
1 vote (6.25%)
1 vote (6.25%)
2 votes (12.5%)
3 votes (18.75%)
1 vote (6.25%)
5 votes (31.25%)
2 votes (12.5%)
2 votes (12.5%)

16 members have voted

smoothgrh
smoothgrh
Joined: Oct 26, 2011
  • Threads: 70
  • Posts: 796
April 7th, 2018 at 10:46:13 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy




Not only have they gotten rid of all third place games - baseball and softball had them at one point as well - but now, in sports like wrestling and swimming & diving that are points based, they give out fourth place team trophies (that are the same color as the third place ones), since they now give out four trophies in basketball.



World Cup Soccer still has the third place match, which shows the obvious superiority of American sports structures! USA! USA! USA!!!

Edit: We won't count the NIT.

Edit: Even the NIT dropped its third-place game!
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1387
  • Posts: 23281
April 9th, 2018 at 6:53:37 AM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Rules 22 & 23 seem unnecesssary.



You're right. Thank you for the correction.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1387
  • Posts: 23281
April 20th, 2018 at 10:13:08 PM permalink
I just bought a "creative pen tablet," if that is the right term, for the device that uses a pen instead of a mouse, to make whiteboard style videos. I then had to get two pieces of software to get from there to a video. That said, this video is pretty much a learning exercise in using the tablet and software.

Yes, I know it is a steaming pile of mule poop. So, please take it easy on me. With all the apologies out of the way, here is my first in what I'll my "Wizard Academy" videos, a respectful tribute to the Kahn Academy.


Direct link
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
  • Threads: 15
  • Posts: 2339
April 21st, 2018 at 11:07:45 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Yes, I know it is a steaming pile of mule poop.



It was close to being very good. Just very unpolished

It seemed like the introduction was trying to target laymen who are coming at this with very little background and need a lot of explaining, then jumped right into the formulas that would only make sense to someone with a well-developed understanding of how to solve these types of problems.

-----

Something this makes me think of is somehow creating random "quick-picks" to fill out a bracket, where each game is weighted. When the three seed plays the 14 seed, there is an 85% chance your bracket takes the three seed and 15% chance it gets the 14 seed. I'm sure there is already something like this, and should only take a few seconds to complete one. (The ones on ESPN take a few minutes to fill out and become tedious and humans can't come up with any degree of randomness on our own). If enough people kept producing random brackets using historical weights over four days would it be reasonable to think we could eventually see a perfect bracket?
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1387
  • Posts: 23281
April 21st, 2018 at 2:32:09 PM permalink
Thanks Tom for the comments. I am sure I'll do a better version after the 2019 season.

As to the first point, maybe I'm speaking over people's heads again, but it all seemed very simple to me. In my many hundreds of posts on the "two dice problem," I'm not sure that I converted anybody formerly in the 1/6 camp to the 1/11 camp. I'm not sure if I didn't explain it well or those in the 1/6 camp were just stubborn and refused to listen.

I probably should have made the point that if every higher seeded team won, a lot of people following this strategy would likely have a perfect bracket. For that reason, it would probably be good to pick some 9 and 10 seeds, just to deviate from the pack a bit. Sometimes these lower seeded teams are favored to win too. It is not difficult to look up the odds of every game in round 1. I'll emphasize that when I redo this in 2019.

I also thought of doing a method of applying a weight to each seed, where the probability of a team winning would be proportional to its weight. However, I thought it would muddy the waters and actually be less effective.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
  • Threads: 21
  • Posts: 1422
April 21st, 2018 at 5:22:17 PM permalink
GlenG posted this video (with lots of numbers/charts etc.) in the WOV NCCA Challenge thread. You may have already seen it, but if not here it is:

TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
  • Threads: 15
  • Posts: 2339
April 21st, 2018 at 5:26:57 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I also thought of doing a method of applying a weight to each seed, where the probability of a team winning would be proportional to its weight. However, I thought it would muddy the waters and actually be less effective.



Any one bracket filled out that way would be less effective. But lots of people fill out lots of them. If you did 10 per day from Sunday through Thursday, shouldn't that cut your odds against from roughly 50 billion to 1 billion?

-----

One thing about Khan, is that from what I've seen it's focused on educating people on math. Why not entertain people with math? This topic might be pretty cool with a minutephysics type video. Unfortunately, you'll be limited by skills in video production:

an impossible bet? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eivGlBKlK6M
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 1977
March 26th, 2019 at 4:35:16 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Thanks Tom for the comments. I am sure I'll do a better version after the 2019 season.

Man Picks Perfect NCAA Tourney Bracket Heading Into Sweet 16

https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2019/03/26/us/ap-bkc-ncaa-perfect-bracket.html
Gregg Nigl of Columbus, Ohio
has made history with a March Madness bracket that's perfect through 48 games on the NCAA.com's "Bracket Challenge," according to the NCAA.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-odds-youll-fill-out-a-perfect-bracket/
"But even if you use a more sophisticated picking method — like, say, FiveThirtyEight’s March Madness predictions — the chances of perfection are still in the neighborhood of 1 in 2 billion, depending on the year."

I lost the very 1st game played
and am going to be watching the final 15 games (resumes Thursday)
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
  • Threads: 212
  • Posts: 8277
March 26th, 2019 at 6:00:54 PM permalink
What is the probability the entire tournament could be fixed, that lowers the odds of a perfect bracket. Only a few games have to be fixed based on the odds.
I am a robot.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
  • Threads: 236
  • Posts: 6763
March 26th, 2019 at 9:19:43 PM permalink
The biggest problem I have each year is picking the 12 or 13 seed that will advance, busting the bracket of everybody who knows about college basketball and everybody who goes with the higher ranking.

I wonder how many perfect brackets were broken by UC Irvine this year?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci

  • Jump to: