What is a good sampling size to determine accurate win %??
Thread Rating:
March 29th, 2018 at 5:17:40 AM
permalink
How many games in a persons betting portfolio would constitute a solid and reliable win percentage? Assume they say they are winning 54% which is believable, surely it's not worth a thing if its been over the course of 10 games. I would say 1,000 games is a solid sampling size, but maybe more???
March 29th, 2018 at 7:59:38 AM
permalink
It depends on the game, and the HE or Advantage. For example: Blackjack, usually around 70k hands... You'd have to give more info to get a more accurate answer.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
March 29th, 2018 at 8:53:22 AM
permalink
Quote: RomesIt depends on the game, and the HE or Advantage. For example: Blackjack, usually around 70k hands... You'd have to give more info to get a more accurate answer.
Romes I think he’s talking about sports betting. He says games, that’s what it sounds like to me.
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
March 29th, 2018 at 9:11:03 AM
permalink
I gather you are talking about sports betting?Quote: ChodempoleHow many games in a persons betting portfolio would constitute a solid and reliable win percentage? Assume they say they are winning 54% which is believable, surely it's not worth a thing if its been over the course of 10 games. I would say 1,000 games is a solid sampling size, but maybe more???
depends on how accurate one wants to be.
over 1,000 bets at p=0.54, the standard deviation of p = 1.5761%
in other words, the 6 sigma range would be 49.2718% to 57.1521%
3 58.7282%
2 57.1521%
1 55.5761%
P 54.0000%
-1 52.4239%
-2 50.8479%
-3 49.2718%
over 10,000 bets at p=0.54, the standard deviation of p = 0.4984%
in other words, the 6 sigma range would be 52.5048% to 55.4952%
3 55.4952%
2 54.9968%
1 54.4984%
P 54.0000%
-1 53.5016%
-2 53.0032%
-3 52.5048%
over 100,000 bets at p=0.54, the standard deviation of p = 0.1576%
in other words, the 6 sigma range would be 53.5272% to 54.4728%
3 54.4728%
2 54.3152%
1 54.1576%
P 54.0000%
-1 53.8424%
-2 53.6848%
-3 53.5272%
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
