Mission146
Mission146
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December 22nd, 2017 at 10:58:19 AM permalink
Quote: NokTang

Thanks for your kind attempt. I'm still not at the end of my search and question. I'd swear I heard the Ravens could win both of their last two games and get in no matter what, but it was talk. This is what started my interest(along with making betting decisions and travel plans). Happy Holidays.



Okay, here you go:

AFC Definitely In: Patriots, Steelers, Jaguars

AFC "Controls Own Destiny": Chiefs, Titans, Bills*

*The Titans, Ravens and Bills are all 8-6. The Bills, however, would win the, "Common Opponents Record," tiebreaker against the Titans if both teams win out, except the Titans played the Ravens and won, which takes precedence. Beyond that, the Bills and BAL don't have enough common opponents for that to work, so then it goes to strength of victory (combined record of opponents beaten) which would go to BUF if both teams won out. Not least of which is because for BUF to win out, they must beat the Patriots once and the Ravens played the Browns twice.

---It's the one time that playing in a tough division can actually help you, if the tiebreakers get that far, but they usually don't. That's the fifth tiebreaker.

*All three of TEN, BUF, BAL can win out, and if that happened, TEN and BUF would be in.

*The Chiefs win their division if they win out.

NFC Definitely In: PHI, MIN

NFC Controls Own Destiny: LA (Rams), New Orleans, Carolina, Atlanta*

*This is much easier as the current two non-winners of the NFC South currently enjoy a better record than any other WildCard team. One thing to keep in mind is not all three of NO, CAR and ATL actually CAN win out, because ATL plays both one more time.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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December 22nd, 2017 at 1:33:27 PM permalink
Mission wrote It out, above and I haven't compared, but this article seems to be exactly what you are looking for. Ravens are the first team discussed.

http://www.sbnation.com/platform/amp/2017/12/22/16807036/nfl-playoff-scenarios-2017-wild-card-dolphins-raiders-cowboys
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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December 22nd, 2017 at 3:07:31 PM permalink
Quote: NokTang

Thanks for your kind attempt. I'm still not at the end of my search and question. I'd swear I heard the Ravens could win both of their last two games and get in no matter what, but it was talk. This is what started my interest(along with making betting decisions and travel plans). Happy Holidays.


It's possible; I thought you meant, who could clinch a spot in Week 16.

I thought I read somewhere that the wild cards could come down to "strength of victory" (i.e. the better combined record of the teams that the potential playoff teams beat). There was a rather lengthy segment on the Fox pre-game show last Sunday that tried to list all of the things that had to happen for Dallas to get into the playoffs.

As for the Ravens, I don't see how they aren't a wild card if they win their last two games.
This would make the Ravens 10-6.
If either Buffalo or Tennessee loses either of their last two games (and Buffalo is at New England this weekend - and the Patriots won't rest anybody as they are in a fight with the Steelers for home field advantage if they meet in the AFC Championship), the best that team can be is 9-7, which is also the best the AFC West's wild card team can be.
If the Ravens, Bills, and Titans all win their last two games, they all finish 10-6. Since they didn't all play each other, and their conference records would all be 8-4, it goes to games against common opponents, assuming there are at least four, and there are - Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Miami, and Oakland. The Ravens would be 5-0 against them, the Bills 4-1, and the Titans 3-2.
Last edited by: ThatDonGuy on Dec 22, 2017
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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December 24th, 2017 at 1:28:02 AM permalink
this link is a very detailed and complicated explanation of playoff possibilities from the New York Times.

cowboys/seahawks - winner stays alive; loser eliminated


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/12/21/upshot/2017-nfl-playoff-trees-week-16.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Dec 24, 2017
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
Mission146
Mission146
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December 24th, 2017 at 8:09:23 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy


If the Ravens, Bills, and Titans all win their last two games, they all finish 10-6. Since they didn't all play each other, and their conference records would all be 8-4, it goes to games against common opponents, assuming there are at least four, and there are - Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Miami, and Oakland. The Ravens would be 5-0 against them, the Bills 4-1, and the Titans 3-2.



A.) The Titans beat the Ravens.

B.) The Ravens and Bills do not have four common opponents, so the common opponents doesn't apply.

C.) Because B., it then goes to best record against teams that the Bills have beaten and the Ravens have beaten...which favors the Bills because they would have beaten New England in that scenario. Might favor them anyway, since two of the Ravens wins will come against a team with 0-2 wins anyway.***

***But, again, to assume everyone wins out is to assume the Bills beat New England, so they inherit that record for these purposes.

***Currently, teams the Bills have beaten combine for 46 wins, whereas the teams the Ravens have beaten combine for 39 wins (and, that's after beating the Colts).
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ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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December 25th, 2017 at 3:42:34 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

A.) The Titans beat the Ravens.


Irrelevant in a 3-way tie, as head-to-head applies only if you beat every team in the tie or lost to every team in the tie.

NFL.com has worked all of the playoff scenarios out, now that the Sunday games are over. The Ravens are in with a win, a Bills loss to Miami (who may be resting players as they're out already), or a Titans loss to Jacksonville (who shouldn't be resting anybody as a win and a Steelers loss gives them a first-round bye). Since the Ravens and Chargers didn't play each other, any tie involving the two goes to conference record, which would go to the Ravens (7-5 against 6-6). It says that if Baltimore loses and Tennessee and Buffalo both win, the Titans and Bills get the two wild cards (there was no head-to-head sweep; the Titans would have an 8-4 conference record and get in ahead of the 7-5 Ravens and Bills; checking the Ravens and Bills against each other, they didn't play each other, they would have the same conference record and record against common opponents, but the combined records of the teams the Bills beat would be better than the teams the Ravens beat regardless of what happens on Christmas Day or in week 17, in part because two of Baltimore's wins were against Cleveland, so the Bills get the second wild card spot.)
NokTang
NokTang
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December 25th, 2017 at 7:20:07 PM permalink
My "if, then" bet is alive with the Ravens but only small money(money line) as the big money "if" bet(based on the point spread) was lost when they didn't cover. Thanks for your contributions. ESPN reports the Steelers have clinched a bye with the Monday Night win. We'll get better outlines in a day or two I'm sure. Happy Holidays.
Mission146
Mission146
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December 26th, 2017 at 11:00:53 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Irrelevant in a 3-way tie, as head-to-head applies only if you beat every team in the tie or lost to every team in the tie.

NFL.com has worked all of the playoff scenarios out, now that the Sunday games are over. The Ravens are in with a win, a Bills loss to Miami (who may be resting players as they're out already), or a Titans loss to Jacksonville (who shouldn't be resting anybody as a win and a Steelers loss gives them a first-round bye). Since the Ravens and Chargers didn't play each other, any tie involving the two goes to conference record, which would go to the Ravens (7-5 against 6-6). It says that if Baltimore loses and Tennessee and Buffalo both win, the Titans and Bills get the two wild cards (there was no head-to-head sweep; the Titans would have an 8-4 conference record and get in ahead of the 7-5 Ravens and Bills; checking the Ravens and Bills against each other, they didn't play each other, they would have the same conference record and record against common opponents, but the combined records of the teams the Bills beat would be better than the teams the Ravens beat regardless of what happens on Christmas Day or in week 17, in part because two of Baltimore's wins were against Cleveland, so the Bills get the second wild card spot.)



1.) Jacksonville has two more losses than the Steelers. The Steelers and Pats get the byes, Pats get it throughout unless they lose and Steelers win.

2.) I thought I had the precise scenario. Either way, as of the time of my post, NFL.com had it as Bills/Titans, so I was just trying to reverse engineer why. Perhaps the Titans has some other TB on the Ravens.

3.) That was the reason the Bills got in ahead of the Ravens in my post before those games.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
horse
horse
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December 27th, 2017 at 2:58:58 AM permalink
All of the jockeying around and what-ifs are interesting to read, but doesn't it all once again feel like an exercise in futility when all is said and done, as the damn Patriots sit by and watch/wait to snatch the title one more time?

After a year in which idiot footballers nearly ruined the game with their disrespectful, foolish protests, fans deserve more than the Boring Bill and Brady show.
lilredrooster
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December 27th, 2017 at 3:33:13 AM permalink
this link clearly shows the playoff possibilities resulting from the matchups in the final games of the regular season:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2017/12/26/nfl-playoff-picture-week-17-scenarios
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe

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