Patriots Love ‘Heads’ in Coin Toss; Super Bowl Bettors Bank On It
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12 members have voted
I ran into a friend at the Treasure Island sports book who mentioned seeing a prop bet online for what will be called in the coin toss on the Super Bowl. No big deal, I thought, Pinnacle has had that prop lots of times. However, then he showed me the lines, which were:
Heads: -600
Tails: +385
I was prepared to give him some cash to make a big wager on tails on his account. However, I then was reminded of the adage that begins with "If something seems to good to be true..."
As it turns out, the Patriots, who get to call the toss as the visiting team, have called heads every game for the last two years. My source on this is the article titled Patriots Love ‘Heads’ in Coin Toss; Super Bowl Bettors Bank On It in the New York Times.
In years past the Pinnacle odds have been roughly:
Heads -140
Tails +130
The odds on that one moved around a lot. There were years I locked in a profit betting both sides.
The question for the poll is at the stated odds above, which side would you bet? Multiple votes allowed.
I say it's not a math question, but a psychological one.
Athletes don't change their routine. Exception can be given to the highly superstitious who are going through a slump, but otherwise, they do not change. The math may say the wager makes sense, but this isn't probability. It's personality.
Pats call heads. Bet your mama's farm.
(Inb4 "Put money where mouth is" =p)
Maybe I would look into all of the past superbowls that Belichick played in and see what the heads/tails calls were in the games that he won or lost. This could be a factor. Anyone care to check? Im too lazy right now.
Quote: WatchMeWinSo unless Belichick has friends at the sportsbook and ny times trying to sure people into the obvious, I would bet the house max on Heads!
The article made the NY Times so I'm pretty sure he has read it. Maybe, for whatever reason, maybe just to mess with us, he will call tails. If forced, I would bet tails.
Also, who actually calls it? I thought it was one of the players, but assume he's told what to call by the coach.
Quote: WizardThe article made the NY Times so I'm pretty sure he has read it. Maybe, for whatever reason, maybe just to mess with us, he will call tails. If forced, I would bet tails.
Also, who actually calls it? I thought it was one of the players, but assume he's told what to call by the coach.
The captain of the team will call the toss. The two outcomes and four choices are already scripted (e.g., Win - Defer to second half and assuming the other team chooses to receive, which goal to defend. Lose - Choose to Receive if the other team defers, or which goal to defend if the coin toss winners want the ball first). Belichick is a well known micro-manager. Perhaps scripting the call as always heads is an attempt to make this part of the game mistake proof.
Related to that, perhaps he knows that there is a very slight edge to "heads" due to the construction of the commemorative coin used in the toss that has more decoration on the tails side than the heads side.
Even if the coin is fair, a study has proved that more often than not, the side facing up when the coin is flipped, will be the same side that is up when the coin settles on the ground. I'm pretty sure that when showing the coin to the participants in the coin flip, the ref describes and shows the heads side first, then the tails side, then puts the heads side facing up before flipping it.
Heads: -800
Tails: +475
It looks like quite a spread, but if we assume the house edge is the same on both sides, then the probability of tails being called would be 16.36%, implying a house edge both ways of 5.91%, which isn't that bad.
Quote: WizardForgive me for not putting this in the thread but I think this is worthy of its own.
I ran into a friend at the Treasure Island sports book who mentioned seeing a prop bet online for what will be called in the coin toss on the Super Bowl. No big deal, I thought, Pinnacle has had that prop lots of times. However, then he showed me the lines, which were:
Heads: -600
Tails: +385
I was prepared to give him some cash to make a big wager on tails on his account. However, I then was reminded of the adage that begins with "If something seems to good to be true..."
As it turns out, the Patriots, who get to call the toss as the visiting team, have called heads every game for the last two years. My source on this is the article titled Patriots Love ‘Heads’ in Coin Toss; Super Bowl Bettors Bank On It in the New York Times.
In years past the Pinnacle odds have been roughly:
Heads -140
Tails +130
The odds on that one moved around a lot. There were years I locked in a profit betting both sides.
The question for the poll is at the stated odds above, which side would you bet? Multiple votes allowed.
And Heads it was.
Quote: IbeatyouracesQuote: WizardForgive me for not putting this in the thread but I think this is worthy of its own.
I ran into a friend at the Treasure Island sports book who mentioned seeing a prop bet online for what will be called in the coin toss on the Super Bowl. No big deal, I thought, Pinnacle has had that prop lots of times. However, then he showed me the lines, which were:
Heads: -600
Tails: +385
I was prepared to give him some cash to make a big wager on tails on his account. However, I then was reminded of the adage that begins with "If something seems to good to be true..."
As it turns out, the Patriots, who get to call the toss as the visiting team, have called heads every game for the last two years. My source on this is the article titled Patriots Love ‘Heads’ in Coin Toss; Super Bowl Bettors Bank On It in the New York Times.
In years past the Pinnacle odds have been roughly:
Heads -140
Tails +130
The odds on that one moved around a lot. There were years I locked in a profit betting both sides.
The question for the poll is at the stated odds above, which side would you bet? Multiple votes allowed.
And Heads it was.
Heads it's called TWICE!!
