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Boz
Boz
Boz
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December 27th, 2016 at 1:40:09 PM permalink
OK, I made it 16 weeks with 1 to go in a pool. Started with 2605 people at $20 per with a house edge of 50%. So the prize pool is $26500 and there are 45 people left with me being one of them. Here are the teams I have taken and without getting into who has what left, I wanted thoughts on the games with my options. Split is $588 per person at this point and most people don't have the top options left. I am thinking the Colts over Jacksonville as my best option but open to other thoughts.

Here are my picks by week:

MIN, CAR,SEA,CIN,PIT,TEN,GB,NE,KC,BAL,DET,BUF,DEN,AT,HOU,DAL

Thanks! Boz
TomG
TomG
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December 27th, 2016 at 2:13:41 PM permalink
Redskins are eight point favorites, biggest number among all teams you have not yet picked
Boz
Boz
Boz
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December 27th, 2016 at 2:21:07 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

Redskins are eight point favorites, biggest number among all teams you have not yet picked



Yea, that is a consideration. Trying to figure out who cares and who doesn't. Of course all NFL Gambling is based in part on that but week 17 is even more so.
GWAE
GWAE
GWAE
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December 27th, 2016 at 2:25:12 PM permalink
I would take the largest favorite and then also bet the money line on the underdog to guarantee a win.

Btw, why is the vig so huge.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
TomG
TomG
TomG
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December 27th, 2016 at 2:32:25 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

why is the vig so huge.



Two reasons: supply and demand
Boz
Boz
Boz
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December 27th, 2016 at 2:36:18 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

I would take the largest favorite and then also bet the money line on the underdog to guarantee a win.

Btw, why is the vig so huge.



So called "charity"

Played as a donation but now I want my share.
SM777
SM777
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December 27th, 2016 at 2:52:37 PM permalink
Why is there any consideration over taking anyone but the Redskins?

Week 17, you have an 8 point favorite left on the board. Why are you considering a 4.5 point favorite?

Sure, it's possible the Redskins lose and Colts win, but if you're playing this properly, Redskins is an easy choice. Nothing to discuss.
Boz
Boz
Boz
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December 27th, 2016 at 2:54:42 PM permalink
Quote: SM777

Why is there any consideration over taking anyone but the Redskins?

Week 17, you have an 8 point favorite left on the board. Why are you considering a 4.5 point favorite?

Sure, it's possible the Redskins lose and Colts win, but if you're playing this properly, Redskins is an easy choice. Nothing to discuss.



Thanks for the clarity. Exactly why I posted this.
SM777
SM777
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December 27th, 2016 at 2:56:17 PM permalink
Quote: Boz

Thanks for the clarity. Exactly why I posted this.



Collect that money my friend.

I can safely assume not everyone has the Redskins left, so they'll win, and you'll get a much nicer share that being split 45 ways.
Boz
Boz
Boz
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December 27th, 2016 at 3:09:51 PM permalink
Quote: SM777

Collect that money my friend.

I can safely assume not everyone has the Redskins left, so they'll win, and you'll get a much nicer share that being split 45 ways.



Looked and Giants are +325 so I am going to see how many have Washington left and may put $100 on Giants to guarantee a win.

Thanks again.
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
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December 27th, 2016 at 8:10:58 PM permalink
The Sharp play would be Redskins in the Pool, and Giants ML for a couple hundred. Guaranteed money. Why not reward yourself for all of the great work you have already done to date? Just do it!
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
PlayYourCardsRight
PlayYourCardsRight
PlayYourCardsRight
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December 28th, 2016 at 1:13:49 AM permalink
Redskins definitely have something to play for, win and in, unless Detroit and Green Bay tie.
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
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December 30th, 2016 at 7:53:40 AM permalink
Boz, did you make your suicide play yet? Let us know what you decided to do.

btw, regarding the host you talked about in a different thread, was she a good looking Russian?
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
Boz
Boz
Boz
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December 30th, 2016 at 8:30:44 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Boz, did you make your suicide play yet? Let us know what you decided to do.

btw, regarding the host you talked about in a different thread, was she a good looking Russian?



Took the Redskins and I am placing a ML bet on the Giants for $200. Just waiting to see if the line will go up at all. I looked over the players left and 11 including me have Wash left. Many of the others only have dogs or small favorites so I'm hoping a few drop out. Assuming Wash wins, the hedge will have been worth it.
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
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December 30th, 2016 at 8:37:52 AM permalink
Good move!
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
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January 1st, 2017 at 10:48:13 AM permalink
Quote: Boz

Took the Redskins and I am placing a ML bet on the Giants for $200. Just waiting to see if the line will go up at all. I looked over the players left and 11 including me have Wash left. Many of the others only have dogs or small favorites so I'm hoping a few drop out. Assuming Wash wins, the hedge will have been worth it.



Go Redskins! That's astounding, that you're still standing out of such a large group. We'll done!
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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January 1st, 2017 at 4:37:37 PM permalink
Hope you got +325 for that $200 Giants bet. Er, you did get the bet in, right?

BTW, the 16 teams you hadn't chosen yet went 6-10.
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
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January 1st, 2017 at 4:43:59 PM permalink
For all the people on this board that dont believe in hedging... this is a great example of why you should hedge when you can guarantee yourself a positive gain. Great job on the ml giants play. You made your money rather than kick yourself in the butt for not winning anything after 15 weeks of winning. You are a winner.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
monet0412
monet0412
monet0412
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January 1st, 2017 at 6:09:47 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

For all the people on this board that dont believe in hedging... this is a great example of why you should hedge when you can guarantee yourself a positive gain. Great job on the ml giants play. You made your money rather than kick yourself in the butt for not winning anything after 15 weeks of winning. You are a winner.



You might be onto something. I have seen people play bad and get there all the time for over 25 years!

My 2017 New Years Resolution is to try this... Play as bad as I can and hope to get there and perhaps this is the year I stiff everyone that I usually tip.. perhaps that will cover me if I lose at this popular strategy! I might even change my screen name to HedgeHog!

I'll use this picture that I stole off of the web as my user image!

Boz
Boz
Boz
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January 2nd, 2017 at 8:24:57 AM permalink
So I am clearing $600 with the hedge which was a good idea. Still pissed at the effort the Redskins put in but it was also obvious the Giants didn't lie down like most expected. I will post how many ended in the money when the final results are posted.
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
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January 2nd, 2017 at 8:26:52 AM permalink
Congrats!
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
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January 4th, 2017 at 4:13:30 PM permalink
Quote: Boz

So I am clearing $600 with the hedge which was a good idea. Still pissed at the effort the Redskins put in but it was also obvious the Giants didn't lie down like most expected. I will post how many ended in the money when the final results are posted.



How many people split first place in the pool? What is your affiliation with Yards Brewery?
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
Boz
Boz
Boz
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January 4th, 2017 at 4:21:43 PM permalink
Ended up with 33 winners with all 11 who had Washington available losing and 2 on Houston. Would have won with Indy but ended up ahead more with Hedge on NY. As for Yards, all I can say is enjoy the beer. Plenty of options all over Eastern PA. Golden Hop IPA just hit this week.
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
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January 4th, 2017 at 4:24:20 PM permalink
Do you play at Sugarhouse?
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
Boz
Boz
Boz
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January 4th, 2017 at 4:35:15 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Do you play at Sugarhouse?



Do the math.
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
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January 4th, 2017 at 4:36:48 PM permalink
What games do you play there?
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
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