NFL Week 5 - 0 Safeties Prop - Huge Value?
October 7th, 2016 at 5:16:42 PM
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My book (an extremely obscure offshore book) lists this prop
# of safeties scored in all games (NFL Week 5 Sunday/Monday games only)
o0.5 (-320)
u0.5 (+260)
The under screamed huge value to me so went back to the Wizard's bridge jumpers table I had seen before the Super Bowl last year.
It showed safeties happen in 6.2% of games since 2000. That means that the probability of 13 random NFL games all not having a safety can be represented by
p = (1-.062)^13
p = 0.435
That would make a fair line +130. Even if you average out the safety percentages for just the past 5 years (7.28%) that would still make a fair line of +167.
Am I screwing up my math here or should I be taking out a second mortgage for this prop?
# of safeties scored in all games (NFL Week 5 Sunday/Monday games only)
o0.5 (-320)
u0.5 (+260)
The under screamed huge value to me so went back to the Wizard's bridge jumpers table I had seen before the Super Bowl last year.
It showed safeties happen in 6.2% of games since 2000. That means that the probability of 13 random NFL games all not having a safety can be represented by
p = (1-.062)^13
p = 0.435
That would make a fair line +130. Even if you average out the safety percentages for just the past 5 years (7.28%) that would still make a fair line of +167.
Am I screwing up my math here or should I be taking out a second mortgage for this prop?
October 7th, 2016 at 6:53:58 PM
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Can you pm me the name of the book please?
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
