College Football Picks Consolidated

Quote: Pinit2winit

systems....

Lol, but the pictures and charts are pretty.

Quote: JoelDeze

I'm Going to post my next pick for the Florida @ Arkansas game. I really like this pick but I wanted to also show you how I'm breaking down this game and why I feel the line is incorrect.

Florida @ Arkansas
Line is currently -3.5 in favor of Florida

The line started out around -4 to -4.5 so a lot of people feel that Florida has a solid chance of losing this game. And, I can understand why they do after watching the Gators' offense the last few weeks. But, this is an oddsmaker trap game and it's one of the more difficult games to set the lines for considering the history of Florida beating Arkansas.

Florida currently has a 9-win streak against Arkansas dating back to 1995. They've dominated the razorbacks historically. But, I don't put a ton of stock into history.

Let's look at momentum for both teams.



Offense

Offensively, both of these teams are right on par with one another. Florida has shown a marginal decline on offense since week 4 but they've played good defenses over that stretch. Arkansas is a little more consistent over the course of the season but if you remove Alabama and Auburn, they have not shown any measured improvement against other weak defenses they've faced.

Arkansas struggled against the two toughest defenses they faced this season (Alabama in week 6 and Auburn in week 8). They lost both of those games by 49-30 and 56-3. Florida's defense is on par, if not slightly better, than both of those teams.

Florida has a ton of playmakers on offense but they are having QB and O-line issues. They have two superior WRs in Callaway and Cleveland and have a RB by committee with focus on giving reps to Scarlett and Perine. Powell coming into the game gives the Gators a mix of misdirection on short yardage plays. If the Gators play on the level of talent they have offensively, when they do have a breakout game it will turn some heads.

The Razorbacks have a good RB in Rawleigh Williams who is averaging around 100 yards per game. Austin Allen has a couple of good receivers in Hatcher and Cornelius who both average a little over 60 yds per game.

Defense

Florida has the #2 defense in the nation, allowing 239 yards per game. They are #2 in pass defense, allowing 134 yds per game and #10 in rush defense, allowing 105 yds per game. The Gators only allow 11.7 points per game (2nd best in the nation) and teams are converting only 68.8% of the time in the red zone (4th best in the nation).

The Gators' momentum on defense is almost through the roof, hitting the top of the ceiling and consistently remaining there. Arkansas has shown a marginal decline on defense since week 5.

The Razorbacks are ranked 87th in the nation on defense, allowing 428 yards per game. They are allowing 31.4 points per game and teams are converting on 3rd downs at almost 50% (48.5%).

RISK Factors



Florida scores high in 4 of the top 6 risk factors that produce the highest margin of win probability assessment in college football.

H2H shows a 75% win percentage with Florida's offense and defense combining to account for 61.3% of the probable scoring in the game. Florida is much stronger statistically, and that produces between a 78-80% chance to win. Scoring defense is a huge factor in this game but RERD (rushing efficiency rating difference) is the key stat I'm really looking at here. RERD accounts for the second highest win probability projector in college football and the Gators have almost a 100% chance to win based on this trend.

Scoring Differential



The POINTS row accounts for an historical comparison of any two teams that fit similar makeup characteristics of both Florida and Arkansas in a real game scenario. The margin of victory for the Florida team in this scenario is 14 points.

The SCORE row accounts for the real scoring differential in this game. Florida has a 17.7 to -0.5 advantage (or 18.2 points) over the Razorbacks. The score historically when this advantage is present averages out to a 36-18 victory, or an 18 point margin of victory.

Game Prediction

The score should average around 31-15. However, Florida's offense has been inconsistent throughout the year so I'm negating 7 points and adding 3 points to the home team.

Florida wins (24 - 18), DIFF (-6), TOTALS (42).

Recommended: The line is at -3.5 but I recommend buying a full point to -2.5 to ensure a solid cover, with no chance to push.

And that my liege is how we know the earth to be banana shaped.

Florida 10
Arkansas 31

Quote: JoelDeze

If you don't agree with the info then fade the other side. .

Now that's just silly, if I wanted to flip coins all day with vig added I'd bet on roulette red or black.

I do think your program can pick 50% and with a bit of smart point buying and line discrepancies you'll be slightly above that in the long run.


6-1 that's meaningless, I have won 8 coin flips in a row multiple times in 1 day for real money.

Supposedly....

AOS lost 30 hands of BJ in a row.

Alan M seen someone roll 18 yo's in a row. His son hit 5 Royals in one day, and still lost money.

Unfortunately there's no real evidence of this supposed stuff however Alan is a reporter and surely it must be true.

Quote: JoelDeze

Atlanta posted and won
Temple posted and won
Florida posted and lost
Troy posted and won
USC posted and won

4-1 on plays I posted

Won on 2 earlier games this week so I've gone 6-1 on wagers.

Florida was a horrible game to even watch. No QB adjustments or personnel changes. They looked unprepared from the start of the game. Arkansas took advantage of their defensive aggression to hit passes on the edge for the entire first half. The defense just overran everything in the first half.

I'm having a fine week. For the people posting and thinking otherwise, continue believing what you want.

Show me anywhere on this forum where I've posted a link to my site to increase sales. I'm just posting picks or information. If you don't agree with the info then fade the other side. Or, don't even read what I post.

It's always fun to have people who know nothing about me to attempt to dissect everything I post.

I'm up $11,400 this week. 6-1. I'm happy. Ive had one posted loss this week. Some of you folks need to really get a life.

Atlanta has nothing to do with college picks and from what I saw Troy was favored by 23 and only won by 21, I do appreciate your posts but this gives your critics plenty of ammo.

Also if you want to get credit for your picks you need to post

" this is an official pick" - not "I'm thinking about" or "I'm leaning towards" and then when it hits come back and say it was an official pick.

Quote: Zourah

Also if you want to get credit for your packs you need to post

" this is an official pick" - not "I'm thinking about" or "I'm leaning towards" and then when it hits come back and say it was an official pick.

I 100% agree with that. In a situation like this one shouldn't even mention amounts or bets that haven't been officially documented.

Quote: AxelWolf

Now that's just silly, if I wanted to flip coins all day with vig added I'd bet on roulette red or black.

If you want to talk about letting me get some of that vig by all means let's set something up.

Quote: Zourah

Also if you want to get credit for your packs you need to post

" this is an official pick" - not "I'm thinking about" or "I'm leaning towards" and then when it hits come back and say it was an official pick.

Hi Zourah,

If I were posting links to my site or touting my site and trying to sway people towards it, I could understand your logic. I really do not care if I get credit for anything I post. At the end of the day people are going to believe what they want.

For a system driven environment where data is very important, it will always be tough in the beginning. I look at the data at different points in the season and right now things are going well. I trust the data.

I supplied system picks throughout the season but continue to be criticized or labeled a tout when all I was doing was supplying picks. This week I tried to do things differently to help others out by just showing the games I was wagering on. When I say I don't have a lot of time to post, I'm being honest about that statement. When I'm researching games and I put a wager in on a game or two, looking for best lines etc., I don't often have time to come back to these forums and post "oh by the way, hey, here's what I wagered on and the amount..." It is the least of my concerns.

As for Troy they covered. At the time of the post they were at -21 and I bought to -19.5. Yes, I bought a full 1.5 points. USC I took at -17. Both covered fine. I don't normally take that much vig on an ATS play but my risk level, even for a standard ML is -200. I'm perfectly fine risking $2 to make $1 if I believe the pick is certain. Florida was a bad play for me but it's the only loss of the week for me. Again, I don't really care if people believe me or not. I posted enough information to show what games I liked. I am not entering into some type of contest here.

So, once again, either believe it or don't. If I posted a pick or a play I liked and you liked the information as well then hopefully you used it. If it correlated well to research you use for your own data driven scenarios then great.

At this point I'm leaning into just staying with the NFL competition thread and not posting anymore on the forums. This community (not all of the people) are pretty rude and arbitrary. I feel like I have to be a defense attorney on here. Mistrust is the way of the world.

And, no, I still will not post any links to my site. I may post a blog at a later date showcasing information related to football but that will be it. Also, anyone that PMs me asking for information related to my site will not be answered. At this point, I'd like to just be left alone. Other than entered contests, consider this my last post on the subject. I will spend my time on more productive things.

Quote: JoelDeze

At the time of the post they were at -21 and I bought to -19.5. Yes, I bought a full 1.5 points.

That might be the funniest thing I have ever read on this website.

@JoelDaze

Well, I for one would appreciate if you continue to post. This is one of a few different things I look at before I make my final decision's for Saturday. It did seem like you were making an effort to "keep score" so given that transparency does help.

I'm not one to use a service, I don't wager at that level.

I see that Oklahoma lost Charles Walker
If you are a NFL prospect that is highly rated, why play college
They don't pay and you are risking your NFL career with a serious injury
Kudos to Charles Walker
He made the right decision.

Now the coach is furious
"Quitting on your teammates is hard to take, as a coach,That’s everything we stand for — our commitment to one another and, for whatever reason, that wasn’t there for him. He thought this was a better avenue so you would have to ask him for those (answers).”

Hmm
Don't coaches leave a team for another constantly just for more money
Are coaches really committed to their teams?
Hardly
Its about the money
Coaches are committed to money, not their teams

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/news/oklahoma-dc-mike-stoops-blasts-charles-walker-for-quitting-on-his-teammates-160902775.html

I do think it would be better if you made it clear exactly what your official picks are. This would help damp the criticism.

On small sample sizes
By the way, I believe that 6-1 is NOT meaningless, as suggested by a previous poster. Statistics is the craft of assigning "confidence" to certain correlations. A sample size of 7 games is too small to make a high-confidence conclusion that you have an edge, but 6-1 does provide a small (tiny) level of confidence that you might have an edge - i.e., a record of 6-1 is more indicative of an edge than if you had gone 3-4, or 1-6 or 0-7. [However, if 6-1 follows a long streak of losing bets, as might be the case here, then I agree that it means nothing.]

For example, a random Major League baseball game is certainly a nominal 50-50 proposition. Yet MLB teams that start the season 3-0 have a historical track record of having >60% chance of finishing above 0.500 in win percentage. And teams that start 6-1 or better in their first 7 games are overwhelmingly teams that will finish with a winning record. The cautionary note is that we know from experience that some MLB teams will be better than others, so we are merely trying to identify which of the teams are the better teams. With sports betting, however, many people feel that almost no one can beat the sports books in the long run, so we are trying to determine whether OP actually is a sports bettor with an edge. That is a harder proposition.

Quote: terapined

Don't coaches leave a team for another constantly just for more money
Are coaches really committed to their teams?
Hardly
Its about the money
Coaches are committed to money, not their teams

Coaches who leave in the middle of a season for any reason other than health are also criticized. Look at Steve Spurrier at So. Carolina last year.

Quote: gordonm888

Coaches who leave in the middle of a season for any reason other than health are also criticized. Look at Steve Spurrier at So. Carolina last year.

Couldn't pay me a million dollars to play football
A mind is a terrible thing to waste
Brett Farve cant remember jack. How can you live like that with no memories. Too me its unthinkable. My memories are part of my being. Without memories, I lose a huge chunk of who I am and my being. Just not worth it

Quote: terapined

Couldn't pay me a million dollars to play football
A mind is a terrible thing to waste
Brett Farve cant remember jack. How can you live like that with no memories. Too me its unthinkable. My memories are part of my being. Without memories, I lose a huge chunk of who I am and my being. Just not worth it

Just be the kicker, there is rarely any real contact and they can still make millions per year. There are three kickers that average over $4 million per year.