Week Two - College Football picks

We had a decent start for the picks last week going 4-3 but a rough week straight up going 6-4. Obviously, it was a rough week for the Missouri Tigers but one that shouldn't have been completely unexpected given the turnover with players and the coaching staff (and the fact that we weren't all that great last year).

The offense looks somewhat better although I realize some of the statistics can be a bit misleading. I like the potential of Chris Black as a number one receiver and I certainly think Drew Lock is progressing. MU couldn't run the ball that well which is disappointing given we now have an elite talent at running back but the O Line was decent in pass protection and we all knew that wasn't going to be a strength of the team.

The defense was disappointing. I'm no football expert but I think at least part of this was due to a transition to a new scheme and West Virginia appeared to do a very nice job of calling plays to take advantage of MU when the Tigers did get overly aggressive.

After seeing all of the areas which need improvement, I think having a 6-6 season would be a disappointment by normal standards but would not be that bad for this rebuilding job and I do actually think we will reach that level. I'm still hopeful for seven wins but much less optimistic than I was a week ago.

There are a lot of winnable games on the schedule but it's unfortunate that Georgia looks the part of a Top Ten team since we play them next week. I'll be at as many games as possible no matter how the team is playing so let's hope for a few more wins.

This week won't tell us much

Eastern Michigan (+25) - I mean seriously, why would you bet on this game? EMU is coming off a blowout win over a MVSU team that more closely resembles a high school team than the team Jerry Rice played for. The Eagles were pretty horrible last year but they played a few teams close.

MU has Georgia coming to town just one week later and while I think this game won't be much of a problem. I could see some backups in a bit early and some conservative play if we put up a big lead. Also even against this type of a team I do not expect overwhelming success in the red zone and the kicker is really struggling.

Let's take MU to win easily but not easily enough EASTERN MICHIGAN only loses 34-13

Ohio at ku - (ku minus 3) - Well, if nothing else we can make fun of ku fans for storming the field after beating a horrible FCS team. It was a tough loss for the Bobcats in several overtimes last week and ku is going to be somewhat better this year. Still, I get a chance to bet that Frank Solich will get this team back focused to beat a weak opponent... it seems like a wise calculated risk.

OHIO is the pick 27-21

Arkansas State (+19) at Auburn - The SEC is getting quite a bit of grief this week (and some of it is deserved) but I was actually fairly impressed with Auburn in a losing effort. The thing is this is really a trap game and Aubrun still has uncertainty at QB and red zone issues.

Let's stick with the underdogs

ARK STATE is the pick and they only lose 28-17

Kentucky (+17) at Florida - What a pathetic second half performance by Kentucky. Up 25 points and you don't even have a CHANCE to win in the end? Geez. I guess Kentucky could just give up but Florida really can't score much and Kentucky has athletes. This is actually my favorite play of the week.

KENTUCKY only loses 20-17

I liked Vanderbilt but the line jumped from 3 to 6. Since Vanderbilt can't score (see why I think MU can win some games? LOTS of flawed opponents), I will pass on this one.

Virginia Tech (+11) vs. Tennessee in Bristol - Okay, so Tennessee looked undisciplined and not that well coached vs. App State. No big shock there but they have loads of talent and Va Tech is more a "name" than a great opponent. App State is probably the better team out of those two.

TENNESSEE WINS BIG 41-14

North Carolina (-9) at Illinois - Lovie Smith has some cool ideas for Illinois but he's still coaching a not overly talented team. Meanwhile UNC has athletes to compete with almost anyone. This is a reality check for the Iliini.

UNC WINS 45-21

Wyoming (+24.5) at Nebraka - My mother went to school at Wyoming so I've always been a bit of a fan. Nice win for the Cowboys after starting the game at 1030 PM local time (weather was a mess). I've been told by someone who usually knows to keep an eye on Nebraska. Lots of under the radar talent there. I realize they did struggle with Fresno a bit for three quarters but when a team covers like that in the fourth quarter it makes one a bit more confident to wager on them again the following week.

Let's take NEBRASKA 45-13

I want to keep an eye on Iowa State before I pick any of their games. Another tough loss to UNI for the Cyclones.

That's all for this week! Good luck to your (non Eagle) team!

Quote: Zourah

Kentucky (+17) at Florida - What a pathetic second half performance by Kentucky. Up 25 points and you don't even have a CHANCE to win in the end? Geez. I guess Kentucky could just give up but Florida really can't score much and Kentucky has athletes. This is actually my favorite play of the week.

KENTUCKY only loses 20-17

I've been looking at this game since I have spent some time in Gainesville.

Why do you mention "Kentucky has athletes"? Surly Florida's "athletes" are far superior to Kentucky's? Florida's new quarterback also gets high praise in practice anyhow. Only played one game. It's an odd line, almost a trap? Thanks for any further analysis. (there were 88,000. people at the U.Mass game, one has to assume another large crowd for this game)

I attended the UF/UMass game and was also wondering how UF could be favored by 17 over KY. But the 1st half rain and lack of UMass turnovers resulted in a lower scoring game. Florida definitely has playmakers (#81 Callaway), a willingness to throw with QB Del Rio (44 attempts in game 1), and ironically a very good new kicker. Combined with a solid defense these factors may lead to real turnaround in FL scoring this year. Neither team is looking to the following week (North Texas for Florida and N Mex ST for KY) so no real "trap" game.
All that said I have FL -16.5 on a few cards. GLTA.

I would agree it's fairly obvious that Florida has a superior team with better athletes but my point was I think Kentucky has recruited really pretty well so the talent differential may not be consistent with a 17 point spread.

After a performance like Kentucky had last week it's probably either going to be a really nice bounce back or just a disaster would be my guess. I feel like they will compete here but that's why they call it gambling!

Quote: Keeneone

I attended the UF/UMass game and was also wondering how UF could be favored by 17 over KY. But the 1st half rain and lack of UMass turnovers resulted in a lower scoring game. Florida definitely has playmakers (#81 Callaway), a willingness to throw with QB Del Rio (44 attempts in game 1), and ironically a very good new kicker. Combined with a solid defense these factors may lead to real turnaround in FL scoring this year. Neither team is looking to the following week (North Texas for Florida and N Mex ST for KY) so no real "trap" game.
All that said I have FL -16.5 on a few cards. GLTA.

Great call... I didn't see that coming

I've elected to keep updating my picks in one thread