Haw +3 Army
Haw is simply the better team
So Car -3 Ga
ND-Mich under 52.5
major rain
OSU -8 MiFl
buckeyes overpower
Ore-Tenn over 52
127-0 combined last week
FSU +7 okla
Inexperienced QB for OK
Iowa -13.5 ISU
Looking back...foolish bet
I usually lay off the NFL, but I think I found value with these 2, so I bought them:
NE-CIN over 45.5
IND-HOU over 48
Lets see how it goes...
Edit: Sorry for the short reply Mosca...yes, Robinson does look very good, what did he have, 500+ yards of offense...incredible! Glad to see Oregon took care of business as well. Was getting worried there for awhile. Now if only the pros come through. Of coure they won't, which is why I generally lay off on Sunday.
>Haw +3 Army
>Haw is simply the better team
Haw? Hawaii???
Better team? Well isn't that reflected in the odds?
>ND-Mich under 52.5
>major rain
H'mmm. Interesting. Rain is your motive for this bet. Okay. Doesn't everyone else also have a weather report saying "Major Rain"? Don't a few have a professional meteorologist's weather forecast?
>OSU -8 MiFl
>buckeyes overpower
These two broads kept saying Go Buckeyes, but they went to school there and that is "their" team, so I've nothing but their enthusiasm to judge by. Seems your bet turned out right though.
>FSU +7 okla
>Inexperienced QB for OK
Again, isn't this known to everyone and to the extent that it is thought relevant that information is already reflected in the odds being offered? How do you know its a good bet to make?
>Iowa -13.5 ISU
>Looking back...foolish bet
Why is it a foolish bet?
>I usually lay off the NFL, ...
Confused me there. I was trying to analyze this but then realized that by "lay off" you meant "avoid" rather than bet excess action on an opposing team.
> but I think I found value with these 2, so I bought them:
>NE-CIN over 45.5
>IND-HOU over 48
Hope they won for you.
I guess what I am saying is that with a little research, reasonable value can be found. The comments I make with my picks are merely one of the factors I use.
Also, keep in mind that lines are set by people, and they make mistakes quite often. Unlike most other casino games, SB is not a game of chance, and is one the few that can have consistant positive results.
No matter how long you research to dice, you cant predict the results.
7 college and 2 NFL picks this week:
Tex -3 TTU
can't understand why the line has moved so far
Iowa -1.5 Ariz
road fav shows Iowa/Big 10 power game
Ala -23.5 Duke
line should be 50
ECU +17.5 VT
acc is a joke
PSU -21 Kent
Paterno angry after last week
KSU -4 ISU
Snyder wins the games he should
USC -13 Min
SoCal pure talent crushes worst team in Big 10
NYG - IND over 48
Indy D horrible, O is still great. Manning bros in shoot-out
MIN - MIA over 40
both teams in mid-20's this week
Thinking I should move this to a Blog instead? Any comments?
Alan
This week:
5-4 overall
4-3 college
1-1 NFL
Season:
19-9 overall
16-8 college
3-1 NFL
Time to start researching again. I will be in NV on Thursday this week, so no hasty picks again....
Of course, the smart play is to stand pat...but what is the fun of that.
If anyone has any 'hot tips', lay 'em on me. Having great dificulty finding good plays for the weekend. Way too many home dogs.
Mia(Fl) -3.5 Pitt
Stan -4 ND
GA +1 Miss St
OK -14 Cinn
Ala -7 Ark
Ariz -6.5 Cal
Ore -11 Ariz St
Minn -4 No. Ill
NFL:
OAK/ARZ Over 39
DAL/HOU Over 48
Edit: PIT/TB under 33.5
Seems I am a bit Pac-10 heavy this week. Well, let's see how it all turns out...
PIT/TB under 33.5
I hate NFL unders, but this game could easily be 3-0.
Quote: avargovDAL/HOU Over 48
I like the Stanford -4, I have $200 on that myself. But ... Over 48?!? With the way Dallas is scoring points the last 10 games?
Unless you think HOU will score 35 or more, of course. But Dallas's D is pretty good ...
If I were you, I'd hedge this one ...
Quote: ItsCalledSoccerI like the Stanford -4, I have $200 on that myself. But ... Over 48?!? With the way Dallas is scoring points the last 10 games?
Unless you think HOU will score 35 or more, of course. But Dallas's D is pretty good ...
If I were you, I'd hedge this one ...
Here is my thinking....Hou gets out to a big lead forcing Dallas to pass. Hou has given up a ton of yards vs the pass. I am thinking around 31-21 or some such...
Quote: avargovHere is my thinking....Hou gets out to a big lead forcing Dallas to pass. Hou has given up a ton of yards vs the pass. I am thinking around 31-21 or some such...
Hey, it's your money and your call! But I will offer this wager ...
Loser (I'll take the UNDER 48) has to put in his signature line, on this forum, for the remainder of the NFL regular season, the following:
"I made a stupid sporte bet, and I am clearly too stupid to talk about gambling in any way, shape, or form - especially sports betting. ItsCalledSoccer (or avargov, if you win) is, by far, the most intelligent, wise, and intuitive sports bettor in the history of gambling, and you ignore his advice to your own peril."
Bet?
Now watch everyone, I will go 10-1, increase my roll by 3 large, and lose this one bet and be tagged forever!'
Man, this Dal/Hou bet with Itscalledsoccer has made me a nervous wreck ;-)
Ridiculous I say!!!
Still a half to go in them so all is not lost....yet!
Could be much worse I guess.
C'mon Dal/Hou, score a bunch, don't want to add insult to injury!
Please have good thoughts for me...and good call ItsCalledSoccer, will put that up shortly...
Quote: avargovAlthough it looks like my signatue is about to change...the bankroll is what really matters. That being said, and staring 2-7 in the face, I just walked up to the kiosk and made a large cover bet on SD -4 vs Sea.
Please have good thoughts for me...and good call ItsCalledSoccer, will put that up shortly...
You're an honorable gambler, avargov. No hard feelings?
As soon as I get to my laptop, I shall pay homage to you....for 14 long weeks....sheesh...lol
But, that is why it is ganbling I guess.
That all being said, 12 units on the Mia/NYJ over 35.5.
I hate being home on weeks like this. When I am working, I am away from the sportsbook...
Here are the number for this horrible week:
CFB: 2-5-1
NFL: 2-3
OVR: 4-8-1
Season:
CFB: 18-13-1 58.1%
NFL: 5-4 55.6%
OVR: 23-17-1 57.5%
Because of a huge bet on the Mia/NYJ over, profit for the week was $190, which I guess is really all that matters. Need to buy some 'Just for Men' to take care of the new gray from today.
Off to change my signature...hats off to ItsCalledSoccer for his correct side.
Quote: avargovI shall pay homage to you....for 14 long weeks....sheesh...lol
Heh, it'll be over before you know it, and we'll all have some laughs along the way! Good times!
BTW, I was worried chasing the Fins-Jets over.was gonna be a real stupid sports bet.
Good times indeed!
Edit: Guess the sig is too long???
I never did like the big chase bet at the end. I don't bet on too many games any more, just the ones I'm really comfortable with, so I end up winning about 70% of my sports bets these days. So far, for football, I'm 3-for-3 (WAS +3.5 v. DAL, Stan -4 v. ND, and Dal:Hou U-48), so so far so good. I also be on a bunch of World Cup games when I was in South Africa (interesting way they take sports bets there), and was 5-for-8, winning about R2,000 in the end, a little less than $300.
70% is a nice percentage, if you have any solid tips...send 'em my way. I may be too stupid to talk about sports betting, but I ain't too stupid to cash those tickets!
Quote: avargovif you have any solid tips...send 'em my way.
Ummm ... didn't I already do that? ;-)
I'll tell you when I get a feeling or feel really comfortable, but as you can tell, it doesn't happen often and it's only with the teams I know best (Stanford, Pac-10, Dallas teams).
But under this caveat ... I know NOTHING. It's YOUR money and YOUR decision, and listening to random internet forum posters is never a good idea!
And of course it is my decision, but any angle can be useful. I always look for info.
BTW, Oregon is giving 7 pieces of candy at this point. It opened at 6 it appears, so the money is moving to the Oregon side. Although I am not real sure that is the right side to be on. Stanford's D is looking fairly stout. And it looked liked the O line was filled with some rugged fellas. But then again, Oregon is averaging, what?, 55 points a game or some such.
It's hard to say which side to look at without seeing the actual O/U, but your guess sounds about right. The total score against Sac St. was 69, and against Wake was 92, though. I think I'd have to see the O/U and then decide if ND or Wake more closely resembles Orgeon, and make adjustments.
Quote: avargovFound a site that is posting the O/U at 65.5. Sportsbook.com. Doesn't look like any of the books here have posted a line yet. Little higher than I thought it would be....but I guess that is about right.
Wow. Vegas adjusts quickly. I was thinking it would be a no-brainer at 55 or so, but 65.5?!? Yikes. I can think on it and pass that on to you if you want, but I'm not going to put anything on it at 65.5.
Bets for this week:
BYU -4 USU
OK -3.5 TEX
NCST +3.5 VT
KAN +9 BAY
WSU +27 UCLA
NFL:
SEA/STL over 39
BUF/NYJ over 37
MIA/NE over 46
OK ICS, lets hear what kind of moron I am....
I know if I lived near enough to NV to be betting, I'd be all over this thread. Good luck with your bets.
And I think I gambled much more when I wasn't in NV. The books dont extend credit.......
CFB 2-3
NFL 2-1
OVR 4-4
Season:
CFB 20-16-1
NFL 7-5
OVR 27-21-1
Gotta start picking it up!!!
NEB -11.5 KSU
ARK -6 TxAM
WaST +36 ORE
USC +10 STAN
LaMon -3 FAU
ALA -6.5 SoCar
JAX -1 BUF
JAX/BUF over 41
IND/KC over 45
MIN/NYJ over 39
ATL -3 CLE
Let's see how it works out...
CFB 4-1-1
NFL: 4-1
OVR: 8-2-1
Overall:
CFB: 24-17-2 .585
NFL: 11-6 .647
OVR: 34-23-2 .596
I hope this trend continues....
CFB:
KSU -3 Kansas
WVU/USF over 45
KEN/SoCAR over 55
ISU +24 OKL
SoCal -2.5 CAL
NEB -9.5 TEX
WashST +23.5 Ariz
WIS +4 OhioSt (I think Wis wins straightup)
Boise -41 SJSU
NFL:
SD -8 STL
DET/NYG over 44.5
DEN/NYJ over 41
IND/WAS over 44
TB +4.5 NO
I hope the trend continues. Please post any comments. I love sportsbetting interplay.