NFL Survivor Pool, how big to maximize winning %

This is a relatively difficult question due to the fact that handicapping is so important, but I'm wondering if anyone (or the Wizard himself) could set up a scenario with win probabilities of survivor pools based on pool size.

Basically, the question or situation I'm pondering is what SIZE pool I should enter. I have the possibility of entering a pool with 10,000 entries (most people buy between 3-5 entries) for X units, or entering a pool with 500 entries for 5X units, then finally let's say 300 entries for 10X units.

In general, is there any way to answer how much more likely you are to win any given pool given how many entries you have to go against? I've made it really far in the huge, huge pools before but it seems there are just too many entries to overcome. Although the pools with fewer total entries cost more, it seems to me that these would be much more likely to win, given that people can't buy so many and are a bit more stressed about making a pick or splitting up picks, if they have multiple.

All the pools are significant enough money where although the payout is higher for the huge pool, if you won the smaller ones it would still be a degree of life changing money.

Thanks in advance for any input here.

Quote: Lando

This is a relatively difficult question due to the fact that handicapping is so important, but I'm wondering if anyone (or the Wizard himself) could set up a scenario with win probabilities of survivor pools based on pool size.

Basically, the question or situation I'm pondering is what SIZE pool I should enter. I have the possibility of entering a pool with 10,000 entries (most people buy between 3-5 entries) for X units, or entering a pool with 500 entries for 5X units, then finally let's say 300 entries for 10X units.

In general, is there any way to answer how much more likely you are to win any given pool given how many entries you have to go against? I've made it really far in the huge, huge pools before but it seems there are just too many entries to overcome. Although the pools with fewer total entries cost more, it seems to me that these would be much more likely to win, given that people can't buy so many and are a bit more stressed about making a pick or splitting up picks, if they have multiple.

All the pools are significant enough money where although the payout is higher for the huge pool, if you won the smaller ones it would still be a degree of life changing money.

Thanks in advance for any input here.

I think of it like BINGO. Someone is going to win. Less entrants equals a lower likelihood of splitting the pot.

Quote: Lando

In general, is there any way to answer how much more likely you are to win any given pool given how many entries you have to go against?

If you're one entry is up against 10,000 entries, you have a 1 in 10,000 chance. Slim, but of course the payoff is that much greater.
If you're one entry up against just 300 entries, you have a 1 in 300 chance. Much better odds... but the payoff is worse.

Relatively speaking, it's all the same thing. (Assuming the same percentage for the house rake / cut, if there is one.) It doesn't make any difference which type of pool you enter.

Quote: Lando

Although the pools with fewer total entries cost more, it seems to me that these would be much more likely to win...

Of course. That's without saying.

Would you rather win $10 one time out of ten on the average, or would you rather win $100 one time out of one hundred on the average?

Mathematically speaking, it's the same thing. It makes no difference.

When (and if) you play roulette, do you find yourself playing the even money bets, vs. playing specific numbers? If so, it sounds like you prefer the small but more frequent payoff, rather than something that pays more, but less frequently.

Survivor pools are not about handicapping, they are all about game theory.

Quote: DRich

Survivor pools are not about handicapping, they are all about game theory.

...And picking whoever is playing the Rams...hehe

Quote: Ayecarumba

...And picking whoever is playing the Rams...hehe

Dang. There went my secret strategy. Aye, carumba!

Quote: EdCollins

If you're one entry is up against 10,000 entries, you have a 1 in 10,000 chance. Slim, but of course the payoff is that much greater.
If you're one entry up against just 300 entries, you have a 1 in 300 chance. Much better odds... but the payoff is worse.

Relatively speaking, it's all the same thing. (Assuming the same percentage for the house rake / cut, if there is one.) It doesn't make any difference which type of pool you enter.

Of course. That's without saying.

Would you rather win $10 one time out of ten on the average, or would you rather win $100 one time out of one hundred on the average?

Mathematically speaking, it's the same thing. It makes no difference.

When (and if) you play roulette, do you find yourself playing the even money bets, vs. playing specific numbers? If so, it sounds like you prefer the small but more frequent payoff, rather than something that pays more, but less frequently.

Specifically, (and the reason why I have raised this question) the reality is that we don't have enough lifetimes to win the huge odds. I only get to play once a year for the next 40 or 50. Since I'm ok with the cash, the odds dictate that I should give myself a higher chance to win. Especially if the money is life changing either way.

Quote: DRich

Survivor pools are not about handicapping, they are all about game theory.

What's your best strategy, then

Quote: Lando

What's your best strategy, then

Simple things like if a team is favored by 17, don't pick that team. More than half the people will probably pick it so pick another game and hope for a major upset.

Quote: GWAE

hope for a major upset.

Rarely will hope every be the best strategy. 'Basic strategy' would be to pick the home team with the biggest money line that you're still allowed to take. It is possible, but pretty tough to give yourself a better chance of winning then that. Big spreads of over two TDs usually aren't seen until after a few weeks. At which point many (if not most) have already used that team, so many (if not most) will not be on that 17-point favorite

Yes, it does require cappin', so I always say "Try to identify susceptible favorites" and obviously, don't bet those. The problem with most people is that they can't discern that there was always a probability of win given a certain game and matchup. Instead, they think a win is a win is a win --- and they don't see that they escape or don't escape based on what ultimately is % probability and thus handicapping.

Wizard says stay away from the top 2 favorites if you can, and he says that because he realizes that your value is not with those teams.

In this kind of pool, it's more about what you have to gain, since so many people can't imagine teams as being susceptible. I've tried to explain this to even some of my friends that know a lot about gambling in general. It's like they have a brain fart when considering that if they win, a ton of other people did too. They forget the other team is a pro team, too. (-:

What's more? The "public" is afraid to lose. That's ultimately what losers are, afraid to fail.