ksdjdj
• Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
May 15th, 2016 at 7:36:40 PM permalink
This thread is just to discuss the theoretical chances/odds of the series between Cavaliers and Raptors, finishing in 4 to 7 games.
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Assumptions:

If the line doesn't change for the series, then the 'neutral line' for the Cav's would be -6.5 for each game .
4 points is the 'home advantage' being used for this post.

Therefore:

Cav's @ home -10.5***
Raptors @ home +2.5***

***: These spread(s) can/may be updated and changed prior to the commencement of the first game.

Cav's @ home are about 85.28%^^^ to win a game, per game
Cav's 'away' are about 56.38%^^^ to win a game, per game (Edited at about 1230 am EST, on the 16th of May, see MrGoldenSun's post below for the reason)

https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nba/
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Chances and odds for series to complete in:

4 Games: ~ 23.53% and \$3.20, (no theoretical value for this bet)

5 games: ~ 38.17% and \$2.40, (no t. value...)

6 games: ~ 20.45% and \$4.75, (no t. value...)&&&

7 games: ~ 17.85% and \$6.00, (EV of about 7.08%)&&&

&&&: The 6 and 7 game values should now be the correct, (Edited at about 1230 am EST, 16th May)

Please note: at the odds of \$6.00,
if the average 'neutral line' per game is 6, then the EV of 7 games goes to ~ 27.1%, or
if the average 'neutral line' per game is 7, then the EV of 7 games goes to ~ 0.24%
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I am going to probably have \$200, on the 7 games if the price doesn't shorten between now and the time of the first game.

Please feel free to send me different 'realistic' theoretical spreads for this series
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Disclaimer: if the AVERAGE closing line for each game of the series differ by more than .5 pt per game, compared to the line(s) posted above, then the theoretical value of the bet will change significantly,
and this post is NOT taking into account any variables***, except the average closing line for the first game,

*** 'NEW Injuries before, during and between games', is an example of some of the variables NOT being taken into account, after commencement of the first game.
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FYI this information is not needed for the above post, but may be an interesting side note:

If every game was a 'coin-flip', eg \$2.00 money-line for both teams, then

4 games should be: 12.5% chance of happening
5 games ...: 25%
6 games ...: 31.25%
7 games ...: 31.25%
Last edited by: ksdjdj on May 15, 2016
MrGoldenSun
• Posts: 252
Joined: Apr 1, 2016
May 15th, 2016 at 8:56:10 PM permalink
If the Raptors are +2.5 at home, how can they be 56% to win?
ksdjdj
• Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
May 15th, 2016 at 9:39:13 PM permalink
Quote: MrGoldenSun

If the Raptors are +2.5 at home, how can they be 56% to win?

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also, the EV for a total of 7 games*** have now been corrected, it is ~ 7.08%, not the ~ 20...% I had originally posted.

***: compared to 4 games, the calculations are more complicated for 5, 6 and 7 games, so it is easier to make a mistake for them, the theoretical chances for all games should now be correct
Last edited by: ksdjdj on May 15, 2016
MrGoldenSun
• Posts: 252
Joined: Apr 1, 2016
May 16th, 2016 at 6:02:31 AM permalink
It's interesting how sensitive the series results are to small changes in game probabilities.

For what it's worth, Pinnacle right now has GS -7.5 and Cle -10.5. GS moneyline is -357/+311. Cle moneyline is -654/+537.
ksdjdj
• Posts: 1707
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
May 19th, 2016 at 1:13:39 PM permalink
Here are the new series betting chances

NB: All lines are from the Cav's point of view

(a) Average of 6.5 pt 'neutral favourite', for the rest of the series (line used in original post)

4 games: ~ 27.11%
5 games: ~ 40.17%
6 games: ~ 17.70%
7 games: ~ 15.02%

(b) " " ...7 pt 'neutral fav'... " "

4 games: ~ 29.59%
5 games: ~ 40.68%
6 games: ~ 16.55%
7 games: ~ 13.18%

(c) " " ...7.5 pt ... " "

4 games: ~ 32.15%
5 games: ~ 41.00%
6 games: ~ 15.4%
7 games: ~ 11.46%

(d) " " ... 8.0 pt ... " "

4 games: ~ 34.78%
5 games: ~ 41.11%
6 games: ~ 14.24%
7 games: ~ 9.87%

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The games of 6 and 7 are the only ones with any t. 'value'***, see odds below:

***: If the Cav's are 7.5 pt neutral fav's or less, then the 6 and 7 games have an edge, with the 7 games having the higher EV.

The odds are

4 games: \$2.20, 5 games: \$2.30, 6 games: \$6.50, and 7 games: \$10
Last edited by: ksdjdj on May 19, 2016